FairValue pre-open

Pre-open fair value · 2026-11-11

UPDATED – Pre-open fair value report – 2026-11-11 (v2) · source report 2026-11-11-v2.md · permalink

As of

2026-11-11

Prices: pre-market prints 9:13–9:17 AM ET (2026-11-11).

Cheap

2

ADBE, NVDA

Fair

3

CRM, SPCX, AMZN

Rich

4

NOW, AAPL, AMD, GOOG

Re-run on 2026-11-11 (Veterans Day: stock market open, bond market closed) using the three teammate bots' outputs, replacing this morning's coordinator-estimated version. Prices are the latest Yahoo Finance pre-market prints at 9:13–9:17 AM ET (7:13–7:17 AM MST, Phoenix); calls use those prices. New standing defaults applied: stock-based compensation (SBC) is a cash cost in every DCF, and diluted share counts are preferred. AMZN and SPCX DCFs are not meaningful (negative FCF), so their fair value is relative-only.

Comps basis: Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default. The DCF deducts SBC, so DCF and relative values are not fully like-for-like today. See Methodology.

Summary · click a ticker to see how its fair value was built · click a column to sort

Ticker	Price	DCF bear / base / bull	Relative low / mid / high	Blended FV	Up / down	Margin of safety	Call	Confidence
CRM Salesforce	$214.22 9:13 ET pre-mkt · close $213.48	$116.56 / $190.37 / $233.28	$208.04 / $283.92 / $363.77	$237.14^*	+10.7%	+9.7%	Fair	Indicative
NOW ServiceNow	$100.67 9:16 ET pre-mkt · close $99.61	$29.06 / $48.15 / $59.40	$58.86 / $69.75 / $98.23	$58.95^*	-41.4%	-70.8%	Rich	Indicative
ADBE Adobe	$235.24 9:16 ET pre-mkt · close $236.70	$200.49 / $289.72 / $335.18	$355.25 / $451.21 / $573.23	$370.47^*	+57.5%	+36.5%	Cheap	Indicative
AAPL Apple	$348.30 9:17 ET pre-mkt · close $348.51	$89.28 / $127.52 / $148.98	$171.39 / $198.92 / $343.75	$163.22^*	-53.1%	-113.4%	Rich	Indicative
NVDA NVIDIA	$174.42 9:17 ET pre-mkt · close $168.89	$57.49 / $119.52 / $146.38	$211.26 / $333.41 / $549.65	$226.46^*	+29.8%	+23.0%	Cheap	Low
AMD Advanced Micro Devices	$545.47 9:17 ET pre-mkt · close $515.21	$34.53 / $65.68 / $78.53	$245.08 / $319.38 / $446.17	$192.53^*	-64.7%	-183.3%	Rich	Low
SPCX SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies)	$142.50 9:17 ET pre-mkt · close $143.09	n/m (negative FCF)	$58.24 / $117.57 / $193.38	$117.57^*	-17.5%	-21.2%	Fair	Low
GOOG Alphabet	$287.60 9:17 ET pre-mkt · close $284.92	$46.30 / $83.89 / $101.96	$288.15 / $348.54 / $415.64	$216.21^*	-24.8%	-33.0%	Rich	Low
AMZN Amazon	$272.71 9:16 ET pre-mkt · close $270.87	n/m (negative FCF)	$277.02 / $291.12 / $343.11	$291.12^*	+6.8%	+6.3%	Fair	Low

* Indicative: DCF base and relative mid differ by more than 25%, or relative-only. Confidence "Low" = differ by more than 50% or no meaningful DCF. Values are $ per share.

Price vs. value ranges

DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV

CRM Fair

$101.73$378.60

Price $214.22 · FV $237.14 +10.7%

NOW Rich

$24.76$104.97

Price $100.67 · FV $58.95 -41.4%

ADBE Cheap

$178.13$595.59

Price $235.24 · FV $370.47 +57.5%

AAPL Rich

$73.74$363.84

Price $348.30 · FV $163.22 -53.1%

NVDA Cheap

$27.96$579.18

Price $174.42 · FV $226.46 +29.8%

AMD Rich

$3.87$576.13

Price $545.47 · FV $192.53 -64.7%

SPCX Fair

DCF n/m

$50.13$201.49

Price $142.50 · FV $117.57 -17.5%

GOOG Rich

$24.14$437.80

Price $287.60 · FV $216.21 -24.8%

AMZN Fair

DCF n/m

$268.49$347.33

Price $272.71 · FV $291.12 +6.8%

Each row has its own scale. Hover a band for its values.

Top flags

EARNINGS SOON: Tue Nov 17, 2026 after the close (in 6 days).

BIG PRE-MARKET MOVE: +5.9% vs Nov 10 close (chip rally).

DCF vs relative differ 64% (>25%): low confidence. Cheap rests on comps.

DCF vs relative differ 79% (>25%): low confidence; Rich holds on comps alone (price 71% above relative mid).

Low confidence: 2026 listing, sat/comms mid rests almost entirely on NTM EV/Sales (ASTS/GSAT skew), FY2 revenue consensus step-up $48.9B → $180.7B.

DCF vs relative differ 76% (>25%): low confidence. Rich call driven by the provisional DCF; on comps alone GOOG would be Fair (+21% upside, 17.5% margin of safety).

Low confidence: peer set too software-heavy for Amazon's revenue mix; no DCF cross-check.

All 24 flags

DCF vs relative differ 33% (>25%): blended value indicative only.

Earnings Wed Dec 2, 2026 after the close (confirmed).

Net debt about $31.0B.

DCF vs relative differ 31% (>25%): indicative only.

Next earnings not confirmed (Yahoo estimate Jan 27, 2027).

DCF vs relative differ 36% (>25%): indicative only. DCF base alone shows +23% upside (18.8% margin of safety, just under the 20% Cheap bar).

The market is pricing much lower durability than consensus; check thesis risk (AI disruption to creative software).

Earnings Dec 9, 2026 after the close (estimated on stockanalysis).

DCF vs relative differ 36% (>25%): indicative only; Rich holds under either method.

Relative high ($343.75) stretched by a wide P/FCF spread across few peers.

DCF vs relative differ 64% (>25%): low confidence. Cheap rests on comps.

EARNINGS SOON: Tue Nov 17, 2026 after the close (in 6 days).

Pre-market +3.3% vs Nov 10 close on the chip rally (CoreWeave outlook); governance overhang from the board's independent investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang (news, Nov 11).

NTM P/E basis differs from vendor forward P/E, which pushes the relative mid up.

DCF vs relative differ 79% (>25%): low confidence; Rich holds on comps alone (price 71% above relative mid).

BIG PRE-MARKET MOVE: +5.9% vs Nov 10 close (chip rally).

Low confidence: 2026 listing, sat/comms mid rests almost entirely on NTM EV/Sales (ASTS/GSAT skew), FY2 revenue consensus step-up $48.9B → $180.7B.

Call moved Rich → Fair because the analyst's 30/40/30 blend and sat/comms group are higher than this morning's coordinator estimate; price is 21% above FV, inside the 30% band.

Pre-market −0.4% vs close (it was +3.0% at 7:24 AM ET).

DCF vs relative differ 76% (>25%): low confidence. Rich call driven by the provisional DCF; on comps alone GOOG would be Fair (+21% upside, 17.5% margin of safety).

Next earnings date not posted.

Low confidence: peer set too software-heavy for Amazon's revenue mix; no DCF cross-check.

Call moved Rich → Fair because this morning's version leaned on a coordinator normalized-FCF DCF ($104.57) that is now dropped.

Next earnings date not posted.

What changed vs the earlier version

This morning's 7:15 AM ET report used coordinator estimates (DCF without SBC, coordinator comps). This version uses the teammates' work with SBC as a cash cost, so DCF values are much lower across the board.

Ticker	This morning	Now (v2)	Change
CRM	Cheap (FV $272.17, +27.4%)	Fair (FV $237.14, +10.7%)	Cheap → Fair
NOW	Fair (FV $95.31, -5.2%)	Rich (FV $58.95, -41.4%)	Fair → Rich
ADBE	Cheap (FV $406.37, +72.8%)	Cheap (FV $370.47, +57.5%)	no change
AAPL	Rich (FV $177.43, -48.8%)	Rich (FV $163.22, -53.1%)	no change
NVDA	Cheap (FV $226.00, +29.1%)	Cheap (FV $226.46, +29.8%)	no change
AMD	Rich (FV $164.76, -70.0%)	Rich (FV $192.53, -64.7%)	no change
SPCX	Rich (FV $74.50, -49.5%)	Fair (FV $117.57, -17.5%)	Rich → Fair
GOOG	Fair (FV $267.51, -6.9%)	Rich (FV $216.21, -24.8%)	Fair → Rich
AMZN	Rich (FV $210.01, -22.5%)	Fair (FV $291.12, +6.8%)	Rich → Fair

Data gaps and caveats (this run)

Relative ranges are priced off Nov 10 fundamentals/close; EV-based per-share values don't depend on price, but they were not re-scraped this morning.
Share counts: relative files used stockanalysis shares, which match Data Collector's diluted/implied counts within 0.2% for every ticker (SPCX 13.58B vs 13.581B), so no rescaling was needed. Note 'implied' shares = market cap / price, not a full treasury-method diluted count.
Method mismatch: the DCF subtracts SBC, while comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS. That is a main reason DCF and relative differ >25% on all 7 names with a DCF; treat blended values as indicative.
No 5-year own-multiple history for any name; forward EBITDA consensus unavailable (EV/EBITDA is TTM); AMZN retail comps (WMT, COST) and SATS unavailable (GSAT used).
Cost of debt is an assumption (10Y + 1.0%); SPCX has no observed beta.

Sources and timestamps

Yahoo Finance chart API (query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart, 1m, includePrePost): pre-market prices 9:13–9:17 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026; Nov 10 closes.
stockanalysis.com statistics / forecast / cash-flow pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence): stats updated Nov 11, forecasts updated Jul 30–Nov 11, 2026; fetched by teammates 5:23–5:25 AM MST (7:23–7:25 AM ET) Nov 11.
Yahoo Finance quoteSummary (shares incl. impliedSharesOutstanding, beta, cash/debt, earnings calendar), fetched 7:24 AM ET Nov 11.
U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve, 10Y = 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; no Nov 11 print, Veterans Day).
News context (chip rally on CoreWeave guidance, NVDA board investigation): Yahoo Finance / Investing.com / Anadolu Agency headlines, Nov 11, 2026 (not independently verified).

Working files: data/2026-11-11/, dcf/2026-11-11-rerun/ (original analyst run kept in dcf/2026-11-11/), relative/2026-11-11/, scripts/build_v2_2026-11-11.py.

Not investment advice. This is an automated, model-driven analysis built only from public data. The numbers are estimates that depend on the assumptions above and can be wrong.

Financial Data Collector: all inputs in data/2026-11-11/ (financials, consensus, multiples, SPCX peers, 10Y yield, earnings dates, shares), fetched 7:24 AM ET.
DCF Analyst: DCF model and SBC figures (scripts/dcf_run.py). Re-run by the Coordinator on data/2026-11-11 into dcf/2026-11-11-rerun/ (parser patched for today's file format and to use diluted/implied shares; model logic unchanged). Results match the analyst's original dcf/2026-11-11 values within ±$1.
Relative Valuation Analyst: comps ranges in relative/2026-11-11/ (peer 25th/median/75th, priced from Nov 10 fundamentals).
Fair Value Coordinator: latest prices, blending, calls, flags, share-count and SPCX-weight checks, and this report.

Earlier versions this day: 2026-11-11