# UPDATED – Pre-open fair value report – 2026-11-11 (v2)

_Re-run on 2026-11-11 (Veterans Day: stock market open, bond market closed) using the three teammate bots' outputs, replacing this morning's coordinator-estimated version. Prices are the latest Yahoo Finance pre-market prints at 9:13–9:17 AM ET (7:13–7:17 AM MST, Phoenix); calls use those prices. New standing defaults applied: stock-based compensation (SBC) is a cash cost in every DCF, and diluted share counts are preferred. AMZN and SPCX DCFs are not meaningful (negative FCF), so their fair value is relative-only._

## Summary

| Ticker | Price (pre-mkt, ET) | DCF bear / base / bull | Relative low / mid / high | Blended FV | Up/down | Margin of safety | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | $214.22 @9:13 (close $213.48) | $116.56 / **$190.37** / $233.28 | $208.04 / **$283.92** / $363.77 | $237.14* | +10.7% | +9.7% | **Fair** |
| NOW | $100.67 @9:16 (close $99.61) | $29.06 / **$48.15** / $59.40 | $58.86 / **$69.75** / $98.23 | $58.95* | -41.4% | -70.8% | **Rich** |
| ADBE | $235.24 @9:16 (close $236.70) | $200.49 / **$289.72** / $335.18 | $355.25 / **$451.21** / $573.23 | $370.47* | +57.5% | +36.5% | **Cheap** |
| AAPL | $348.30 @9:17 (close $348.51) | $89.28 / **$127.52** / $148.98 | $171.39 / **$198.92** / $343.75 | $163.22* | -53.1% | -113.4% | **Rich** |
| NVDA | $174.42 @9:17 (close $168.89) | $57.49 / **$119.52** / $146.38 | $211.26 / **$333.41** / $549.65 | $226.46* | +29.8% | +23.0% | **Cheap** (low conf.) |
| AMD | $545.47 @9:17 (close $515.21) | $34.53 / **$65.68** / $78.53 | $245.08 / **$319.38** / $446.17 | $192.53* | -64.7% | -183.3% | **Rich** (low conf.) |
| SPCX | $142.50 @9:17 (close $143.09) | n/m (negative FCF) | $58.24 / **$117.57** / $193.38 | $117.57* | -17.5% | -21.2% | **Fair** (low conf.) |
| GOOG | $287.60 @9:17 (close $284.92) | $46.30 / **$83.89** / $101.96 | $288.15 / **$348.54** / $415.64 | $216.21* | -24.8% | -33.0% | **Rich** (low conf.) |
| AMZN | $272.71 @9:16 (close $270.87) | n/m (negative FCF) | $277.02 / **$291.12** / $343.11 | $291.12* | +6.8% | +6.3% | **Fair** (low conf.) |

\* Indicative only: DCF and relative differ by more than 25%, or relative-only (AMZN, SPCX).

## What changed vs this morning's version

This morning's 7:15 AM ET report used coordinator estimates (DCF without SBC, coordinator comps). This version uses the teammates' work with SBC as a cash cost, so DCF values are much lower across the board.

| Ticker | This morning | Now (v2) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CRM | Cheap (FV $272.17, +27.4%) | Fair (FV $237.14, +10.7%) | **Cheap → Fair** |
| NOW | Fair (FV $95.31, -5.2%) | Rich (FV $58.95, -41.4%) | **Fair → Rich** |
| ADBE | Cheap (FV $406.37, +72.8%) | Cheap (FV $370.47, +57.5%) | no change |
| AAPL | Rich (FV $177.43, -48.8%) | Rich (FV $163.22, -53.1%) | no change |
| NVDA | Cheap (FV $226.00, +29.1%) | Cheap (FV $226.46, +29.8%) | no change |
| AMD | Rich (FV $164.76, -70.0%) | Rich (FV $192.53, -64.7%) | no change |
| SPCX | Rich (FV $74.50, -49.5%) | Fair (FV $117.57, -17.5%) | **Rich → Fair** |
| GOOG | Fair (FV $267.51, -6.9%) | Rich (FV $216.21, -24.8%) | **Fair → Rich** |
| AMZN | Rich (FV $210.01, -22.5%) | Fair (FV $291.12, +6.8%) | **Rich → Fair** |

## Per-ticker notes

### CRM – Salesforce — Fair (FV $237.14 vs $214.22, +10.7%)

- Relative mid $283.92 (large-cap software peers, 4 multiples; NTM P/E 13.2x vs peer median 16.8x) sits well above price; the SBC-adjusted DCF base ($190.37) sits below it.
- DCF: WACC 9.89%, FCF margin after SBC 26.1% TTM; price implies a 28.8% after-SBC margin. Sensitivity $154.45–$244.41.
- ⚑ DCF vs relative differ 33% (>25%): blended value indicative only.
- ⚑ Earnings Wed Dec 2, 2026 after the close (confirmed).
- ⚑ Net debt about $31.0B.

### NOW – ServiceNow — Rich (FV $58.95 vs $100.67, -41.4%)

- Relative mid $69.75 (NTM P/E 21.3x vs software peer median 14.3x) and DCF base $48.15 are both below price.
- DCF: WACC 9.49%, TTM after-SBC FCF margin 15.7% (SBC is a large cost here); price implies 32.1%. Sensitivity $39.84–$60.97.
- ⚑ DCF vs relative differ 31% (>25%): indicative only.
- ⚑ Next earnings not confirmed (Yahoo estimate Jan 27, 2027).

### ADBE – Adobe — Cheap (FV $370.47 vs $235.24, +57.5%)

- Only name where both methods sit above price: DCF base $289.72, relative mid $451.21 (NTM P/E 8.7x vs peer median 16.8x).
- DCF: WACC 11.39%, TTM after-SBC margin 32.8% vs 26.9% implied by price. Sensitivity $250.82–$344.21.
- ⚑ DCF vs relative differ 36% (>25%): indicative only. DCF base alone shows +23% upside (18.8% margin of safety, just under the 20% Cheap bar).
- ⚑ The market is pricing much lower durability than consensus; check thesis risk (AI disruption to creative software).
- ⚑ Earnings Dec 9, 2026 after the close (estimated on stockanalysis).

### AAPL – Apple — Rich (FV $163.22 vs $348.30, -53.1%)

- Both methods well below price: DCF base $127.52, relative mid $198.92 (NTM P/E 36.6x vs mega-cap/hardware peer median 18.6x).
- DCF: WACC 10.33%; price implies a 70.8% after-SBC FCF margin vs 25.5% TTM. Sensitivity $108.95–$154.80.
- ⚑ DCF vs relative differ 36% (>25%): indicative only; Rich holds under either method.
- ⚑ Relative high ($343.75) stretched by a wide P/FCF spread across few peers.

### NVDA – NVIDIA — Cheap (FV $226.46 vs $174.42, +29.8%)

- Relative mid $333.41 (NTM P/E 11.7x computed from FY1/FY2 consensus vs semi peer median 27.4x) far above price; DCF base $119.52 below it.
- DCF: beta 2.25 gives a 16.1% WACC, which crushes the DCF. Sensitivity $107.85–$134.05.
- ⚑ DCF vs relative differ 64% (>25%): low confidence. Cheap rests on comps.
- ⚑ EARNINGS SOON: Tue Nov 17, 2026 after the close (in 6 days).
- ⚑ Pre-market +3.3% vs Nov 10 close on the chip rally (CoreWeave outlook); governance overhang from the board's independent investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang (news, Nov 11).
- ⚑ NTM P/E basis differs from vendor forward P/E, which pushes the relative mid up.

### AMD – Advanced Micro Devices — Rich (FV $192.53 vs $545.47, -64.7%)

- Both methods far below price: DCF base $65.68, relative mid $319.38 (NTM P/E 31.5x vs peer median 20.4x).
- DCF: beta 2.54 gives a 17.5% WACC and TTM after-SBC margin is 11.1%; price implies 92.3%. Constant-margin DCF likely understates value if margins expand. Sensitivity $60.17–$72.39.
- ⚑ DCF vs relative differ 79% (>25%): low confidence; Rich holds on comps alone (price 71% above relative mid).
- ⚑ BIG PRE-MARKET MOVE: +5.9% vs Nov 10 close (chip rally).

### SPCX – Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) — Fair (FV $117.57 vs $142.50, -17.5%)

- Relative only: DCF not meaningful (TTM FCF −$39.3B, FY1 consensus FCF −$56.6B, no observed beta). DCF Analyst's mechanical output is negative and excluded.
- Peer groups (low / mid / high, $/sh): aerospace/defense $33.59 / $35.45 / $43.30; satellite/comms $76.49 / $211.46 / $351.08; AI $58.56 / $74.51 / $133.19.
- Blend weights checked in the analyst's file: 30% aero/defense, 40% sat/comms, 30% AI (sums to 100%; the earlier chat note listing 40% twice was a relay typo). Equal-thirds alternative for sensitivity: $56.21 / $107.14 / $175.86 (price would be 33% above that mid, just past the 30% band, i.e. Rich).
- Per-share values use 13.58B shares (equals the 13.581B diluted/implied count; the 8.247B basic count was NOT used).
- ⚑ Low confidence: 2026 listing, sat/comms mid rests almost entirely on NTM EV/Sales (ASTS/GSAT skew), FY2 revenue consensus step-up $48.9B → $180.7B.
- ⚑ Call moved Rich → Fair because the analyst's 30/40/30 blend and sat/comms group are higher than this morning's coordinator estimate; price is 21% above FV, inside the 30% band.
- ⚑ Pre-market −0.4% vs close (it was +3.0% at 7:24 AM ET).

### GOOG – Alphabet — Rich (FV $216.21 vs $287.60, -24.8%)

- Relative mid $348.54 (NTM P/E 18.8x vs platform peer median 24.8x) above price; DCF base $83.89 far below.
- DCF is provisional: TTM FCF after SBC is negative (−2.3% margin) from AI capex, so the analyst ramps margin to the pre-surge 2025 level; terminal value is 86% of EV. Sensitivity $71.15–$102.26.
- ⚑ DCF vs relative differ 76% (>25%): low confidence. Rich call driven by the provisional DCF; on comps alone GOOG would be Fair (+21% upside, 17.5% margin of safety).
- ⚑ Next earnings date not posted.

### AMZN – Amazon — Fair (FV $291.12 vs $272.71, +6.8%)

- Relative only: DCF not meaningful (TTM FCF −$46.9B pre-SBC after the capex step-up; base case negative even with a margin ramp).
- Relative mid $291.12 uses only GOOG, MSFT and META (WMT/COST data unavailable), weights NTM P/E 40%, EV/Sales 20%, EV/EBITDA 40%.
- ⚑ Low confidence: peer set too software-heavy for Amazon's revenue mix; no DCF cross-check.
- ⚑ Call moved Rich → Fair because this morning's version leaned on a coordinator normalized-FCF DCF ($104.57) that is now dropped.
- ⚑ Next earnings date not posted.

## Key assumptions

- 10Y Treasury 4.98% (Nov 10); ERP 5.0%; observed 5Y beta; cost of debt 10Y + 1.0%, 21% tax; WACC floor 8%; terminal growth 2.5% base; bear/bull = WACC ±1% plus lower/higher growth; sensitivity grid WACC ±1%, g 2.0–3.0%.
- DCF FCF = OCF − capex − SBC (SBC treated as cash cost; new standing default). Start growth = 90% of the lower of consensus 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 growth, fading to g over 5 years.
- Relative: peer 25th / median / 75th of NTM P/E, NTM EV/Sales, TTM EV/EBITDA, FY1 P/FCF; weights per ticker file.
- Blended FV = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid (relative only for AMZN, SPCX). Flag when |DCF − relative| / relative > 25%. Margin of safety = (FV − price) / FV. Cheap if price ≥20% below FV; Rich if price ≥15% above FV; SPCX uses 30% both ways.

## Gaps and caveats

- Relative ranges are priced off Nov 10 fundamentals/close; EV-based per-share values don't depend on price, but they were not re-scraped this morning.
- Share counts: relative files used stockanalysis shares, which match Data Collector's diluted/implied counts within 0.2% for every ticker (SPCX 13.58B vs 13.581B), so no rescaling was needed. Note 'implied' shares = market cap / price, not a full treasury-method diluted count.
- Method mismatch: the DCF subtracts SBC, while comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS. That is a main reason DCF and relative differ >25% on all 7 names with a DCF; treat blended values as indicative.
- No 5-year own-multiple history for any name; forward EBITDA consensus unavailable (EV/EBITDA is TTM); AMZN retail comps (WMT, COST) and SATS unavailable (GSAT used).
- Cost of debt is an assumption (10Y + 1.0%); SPCX has no observed beta.

## Who did what

- **Financial Data Collector**: all inputs in data/2026-11-11/ (financials, consensus, multiples, SPCX peers, 10Y yield, earnings dates, shares), fetched 7:24 AM ET.
- **DCF Analyst**: DCF model and SBC figures (scripts/dcf_run.py). Re-run by the Coordinator on data/2026-11-11 into dcf/2026-11-11-rerun/ (parser patched for today's file format and to use diluted/implied shares; model logic unchanged). Results match the analyst's original dcf/2026-11-11 values within ±$1.
- **Relative Valuation Analyst**: comps ranges in relative/2026-11-11/ (peer 25th/median/75th, priced from Nov 10 fundamentals).
- **Fair Value Coordinator**: latest prices, blending, calls, flags, share-count and SPCX-weight checks, and this report.

## Sources (with timestamps)

- Yahoo Finance chart API (query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart, 1m, includePrePost): pre-market prices 9:13–9:17 AM ET, Nov 11, 2026; Nov 10 closes.
- stockanalysis.com statistics / forecast / cash-flow pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence): stats updated Nov 11, forecasts updated Jul 30–Nov 11, 2026; fetched by teammates 5:23–5:25 AM MST (7:23–7:25 AM ET) Nov 11.
- Yahoo Finance quoteSummary (shares incl. impliedSharesOutstanding, beta, cash/debt, earnings calendar), fetched 7:24 AM ET Nov 11.
- U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve, 10Y = 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; no Nov 11 print, Veterans Day).
- News context (chip rally on CoreWeave guidance, NVDA board investigation): Yahoo Finance / Investing.com / Anadolu Agency headlines, Nov 11, 2026 (not independently verified).

Working files: data/2026-11-11/, dcf/2026-11-11-rerun/ (original analyst run kept in dcf/2026-11-11/), relative/2026-11-11/, scripts/build_v2_2026-11-11.py.

**Not investment advice. This is an automated, model-driven analysis built only from public data. The numbers are estimates that depend on the assumptions above and can be wrong.**