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NVDA NVIDIA Cheap Low confidence
Fair-value build for 2026-11-11. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.
DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV
$27.96$579.18
1 · Price
$174.42
›2 · DCF base
$119.52
›3 · Relative mid
$333.41
›4 · Blended FV
$226.46
›5 · Margin of safety → call
+23.0% → Cheap
1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps
Price used for the call
$174.42
$174.42 @9:17 (close $168.89)
Shares (diluted / implied)
24.147B
Net cash (debt)
$23.61B
Beta (5Y)
2.25
Market cap
$4.08T
TTM revenue
$302.97B
Collected by Financial Data Collector. Public sources only. Figures fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET. Every figure is sourced below; anything not found is marked n/a (not found) — no numbers were invented.
Not available from the public sources used:
None of the requested core fields were missing from the public sources used.
Forward EBITDA consensus: n/a (not found) on the free stockanalysis and Yahoo modules used.
Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-11/NVDA.md
Collected by Financial Data Collector. Public sources only. Figures fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET. Every figure is sourced below; anything not found is marked n/a (not found) — no numbers were invented.
Price and trading
| Field | Value | Source / as-of |
|---|---|---|
| Last regular-session close | $168.89 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM ET (-9.78, -5.47% vs previous close $178.67). Exchange: NasdaqGS; quote type: EQUITY. | Yahoo Finance quoteSummary regularMarketPrice / regularMarketTime; cross-checked vs stockanalysis close $168.89 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST and Yahoo chart API |
| Pre-market | $175.12 (+6.32, +3.75%) as of Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET (Yahoo Finance quoteSummary preMarket* vs regular-session close $168.89). Cross-check stockanalysis pre-market: $175.09 (+6.20, +3.67%) at Nov 11, 2026, 7:19 AM EST. | Yahoo Finance quoteSummary, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET |
| Market cap | $4.08T | Yahoo price.marketCap (stockanalysis: $4.08T) |
| Enterprise value | stockanalysis EV: $4.05T; Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.enterpriseValue: $4.05T | See cash-definition note |
Shares, cash, debt, beta
| Field | Value | Source / as-of |
|---|---|---|
| Shares outstanding (basic) | 24.147B | Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.sharesOutstanding (stockanalysis shares outstanding: 24.150B; stats updated Nov 11, 2026) |
| Diluted / implied shares | 24.147B | Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.impliedSharesOutstanding. This is the share count implied by market cap / last price (24.147B) and is the figure to use for per-share DCF / relative work. |
| Float | 23.134B | Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.floatShares |
| Cash | $62.47B (Cash & Cash Equivalents) | Primary: stockanalysis, stats updated Nov 11, 2026; Yahoo totalCash $62.47B |
| Total debt | $38.86B | stockanalysis / Yahoo financialData.totalDebt (Yahoo: $38.86B) |
| Net cash (debt) | $23.61B | Negative = net debt. stockanalysis definition uses the cash line above minus total debt. |
| Beta (5Y) | 2.25 | Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.beta 2.25; stockanalysis Beta (5Y) 2.25 |
Cash / debt detail:
- stockanalysis “Cash & Cash Equivalents”: $62.47B (stats updated Nov 11, 2026)
- Yahoo Finance
financialData.totalCash: $62.47B (typically cash & short-term investments; may be narrower than SA’s cash + marketable securities) - stockanalysis total debt: $38.86B
- Yahoo
financialData.totalDebt: $38.86B (agrees with stockanalysis) - stockanalysis net cash (debt): $23.61B → net cash $23.61B [consistent with SA EV vs market cap]
- Yahoo totalCash − totalDebt: $23.61B → net cash $23.61B (may differ from SA if cash definitions differ)
TTM financials
| Field | Value | Source / as-of |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $302.97B | stockanalysis Income Statement (stats updated Nov 11, 2026); Yahoo financialData.totalRevenue $302.97B |
| TTM EBITDA | $201.27B | stockanalysis; Yahoo financialData.ebitda $201.27B |
| TTM net income | $192.88B | stockanalysis; Yahoo netIncomeToCommon $192.88B |
| TTM EPS (GAAP) | 7.91 | stockanalysis; Yahoo trailingEps 7.91 |
| TTM operating cash flow | $134.36B | stockanalysis; Yahoo operatingCashflow $134.36B |
| TTM capex | -$7.35B | stockanalysis (sign is cash outflow, negative) |
| TTM D&A | $3.69B | stockanalysis |
| TTM free cash flow (OCF − capex) | $127.01B | stockanalysis |
| Yahoo / levered FCF (do not mix with the line above) | $41.81B | Yahoo financialData.freeCashflow |
| TTM operating margin | 65.2% | stockanalysis |
| YoY revenue growth (latest reported quarter / Yahoo) | 105.9% | Yahoo financialData.revenueGrowth |
| YoY earnings growth (Yahoo) | 127.8% | Yahoo financialData.earningsGrowth |
stockanalysis TTM FCF (OCF − capex): $127.01B (OCF $134.36B + capex -$7.35B = $127.01B). Yahoo financialData.freeCashflow: $41.81B — this often matches stockanalysis levered FCF, not OCF−capex. Use OCF−capex for a standard FCF DCF unless you explicitly want levered FCF.
Recent historical annual figures
Fiscal year calendar: February - January. Figures in USD from stockanalysis.com financials / cash-flow pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence; source pages fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)). Values originally displayed in millions.
| Period | Revenue | Operating income | EBITDA (OpInc + D&A, approx.) | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | OCF | Capex | FCF (OCF − capex) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 | $215.94B | $130.39B | $133.23B | $120.07B | 4.90 | $102.72B | -$6.04B | $96.68B |
| FY 2025 | $130.50B | $81.45B | $83.32B | $72.88B | 2.94 | $64.09B | -$3.24B | $60.85B |
| FY 2024 | $60.92B | $32.97B | $34.48B | $29.76B | 1.19 | $28.09B | -$1.07B | $27.02B |
| FY 2023 | $26.97B | $5.58B | $7.12B | $4.37B | 0.17 | $5.64B | -$1.83B | $3.81B |
| FY 2022 | $26.91B | $10.04B | $11.21B | $9.75B | 0.39 | $9.11B | -$976.00M | $8.13B |
Note: Annual EBITDA is not published as a separate line on the free income-statement page, so the OpInc + D&A figure is an approximation (does not add other non-cash items). TTM EBITDA above is the source-reported figure.
Consensus estimates and growth
| Field | Value | Source / as-of |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Jan 31, 2027) | $411.88B | stockanalysis forecast, updated Nov 10, 2026; FY0 / last year on that page $215.94B → FY1 growth 90.7% |
| Consensus revenue FY2 | $692.09B | stockanalysis forecast, updated Nov 10, 2026; FY1→FY2 growth 68.0% |
| Consensus EPS FY1 (typically non-GAAP on this source) | 9.32 | stockanalysis forecast |
| Consensus EPS FY2 | 15.93 | stockanalysis forecast |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $189.85B | stockanalysis forecast (FCF column, last period); prior-year column on that table $96.68B |
| Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR) | 61.2% | stockanalysis statistics |
| EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR) | 64.9% | stockanalysis statistics |
| Analyst average price target | $325.25 (62 analysts on stockanalysis; Yahoo targetMeanPrice $325.78 from 57 opinions) | stockanalysis / Yahoo, forecast updated Nov 10, 2026 |
Yahoo Finance earningsTrend (cross-check; periods as labeled by Yahoo):
| Yahoo period | End date | Consensus revenue | Consensus EPS | # analysts (EPS) | Growth (Yahoo) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (0q) | 2026-10-31 | $109.01B (low $104.94B, high $116.25B) | 2.47 (low 2.34, high 2.70) | 44 | 90.3% |
| Next quarter (+1q) | 2027-01-31 | $124.73B (low $117.29B, high $138.49B) | 2.75 (low 2.56, high 3.12) | 42 | 69.7% |
| Current FY (0y) | 2027-01-31 | $411.88B (low $403.21B, high $426.88B) | 9.32 (low 9.01, high 10.10) | 51 | 95.3% |
| Next FY (+1y) | 2028-01-31 | $692.09B (low $506.48B, high $778.47B) | 15.93 (low 12.85, high 18.75) | 52 | 71.0% |
Caution: Yahoo’s “forward P/E” and forwardEps sometimes correspond to FY2 / a later year, not FY1. stockanalysis “Forward PE” is generally price / FY1 consensus EPS. Do not mix them. Also, for names that just reported, Yahoo’s 0q/0y rows can lag the print.
Current multiples
Primary set is stockanalysis (S&P GMI), which is internally consistent with that source’s price, market cap, EV, and TTM/FY1 figures (stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Nov 10, 2026). Computed cross-checks use Yahoo last close $168.89 and Yahoo market cap $4.08T.
| Multiple | stockanalysis | Computed cross-check | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 21.36x | 21.35x (close / TTM GAAP EPS 7.91); Yahoo trailing P/E 21.35x | GAAP trailing |
| Forward P/E (FY1 EPS 9.32) | 13.94x | 18.12x | Preferred forward multiple |
| Yahoo stated forward P/E | 10.60x | uses Yahoo forwardEps 15.93 | Often FY2/NTM, not FY1 |
| P/S TTM | 13.46x | 13.46x | |
| Forward P/S (FY1 revenue) | 7.57x | 9.90x | |
| P/FCF TTM (OCF−capex) | 32.11x | 32.11x | Blank/n/a if FCF ≤ 0 |
| Forward P/FCF (FY1 FCF) | n/a (not a labeled SA field) | 21.48x | market cap / FY1 consensus FCF |
| EV/Sales TTM | 13.38x | 13.37x using SA EV $4.05T | |
| EV/EBITDA TTM | 20.15x | 20.12x | Forward EBITDA consensus was not on these free pages |
| EV/FCF TTM | 31.92x | 31.89x | Blank/n/a if FCF ≤ 0 |
Earnings date
stockanalysis: next confirmed: Tuesday, November 17, 2026 after market close (stats updated Nov 11, 2026); Yahoo Finance calendarEvents: 2026-11-17 (Yahoo: not marked as estimate); Yahoo consensus for that report: EPS 2.47 (low 2.34, high 2.70); revenue $109.01B (low $104.94B, high $116.25B)
Notable recent news
Headlines from Yahoo Finance news search, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET. These are the source’s recent items (not a complete news file) and have not been independently verified beyond the headline list.
- Nov 11, 2026, 7:18 AM ET — 24/7 Wall St.: Is the AI Trade Broken, or Did Hedge Funds Just Get Squeezed?
- Nov 11, 2026, 7:15 AM ET — 24/7 Wall St.: Why Alphabet and Amazon Will Always Need Nvidia
- Nov 11, 2026, 7:15 AM ET — 24/7 Wall St.: Nvidia’s New Governance Risk Discount Price to End 2026
- Nov 11, 2026, 7:14 AM ET — Reuters: S&P 500, Nasdaq futures rise as CoreWeave results calm AI jitters
- Nov 11, 2026, 7:12 AM ET — Investor's Business Daily: Dow Jones Futures Rise, Techs Jump On CoreWeave Earnings; Look For This Bullish Market Signal
- Nov 11, 2026, 7:00 AM ET — Investing.com: Nvidia, chip stocks rebound premarket after CoreWeave lifts revenue outlook
Missing / not available from public sources used
None of the requested core fields were missing from the public sources used.
Forward EBITDA consensus: n/a (not found) on the free stockanalysis and Yahoo modules used.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (
price,summaryDetail,defaultKeyStatistics,financialData,calendarEvents,earningsTrend,incomeStatementHistory): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/NVDA — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET - Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/NVDA — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 10, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=NVDA — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity
WACC build-up via CAPM
- Cost of equity = risk-free + β × ERP
Ke = 10Y UST 5.0% + 2.25 × 5.0% = 16.2%Beta note: 5Y observed (Data Collector) - Cost of debt (assumption: 10Y + 1.0%) = 6.0% pre-tax → 4.7% after 21% tax
- Market-value weights: equity 99.1% / debt 0.9%
- WACC = 99.1% × 16.2% + 0.9% × 4.7% = 16.1%
WACC lines exactly as in the DCF file
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 2.25 (5Y observed (Data Collector)); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 16.2%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 99.1% / debt 0.9% (mkt cap $4,080.0B, debt $38.9B)
- WACC 16.1% → 16.1%
SBC treatment
TTM SBC: $7.2B (2.4% of rev; 5.7% of FCF). Starting FCF after SBC (OCF − capex − SBC): $119.8B = 39.5% margin.
Revenue and FCF projections (base case)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55.1% | 469.8 | 39.5% | 185.7 | 160.0 |
| 2 | 44.6% | 679.2 | 39.5% | 268.5 | 199.1 |
| 3 | 34.0% | 910.5 | 39.5% | 359.9 | 229.9 |
| 4 | 23.5% | 1,124.7 | 39.5% | 444.6 | 244.5 |
| 5 | 13.0% | 1,271.1 | 39.5% | 502.5 | 238.0 |
Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)
- Gordon TV $3,781.3B, PV $1,790.9B; EV $2,862.4B; TV share of EV 62.6%
- Implied exit multiple 7.5x year-5 FCF vs current EV/FCF TTM 31.9x (pre-SBC)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $168.89: 56.0% vs TTM 39.5%
Enterprise value → equity → per share
| PV of 5 years of FCF (computed here: EV − PV of TV) | $1,071.5B |
| + PV of terminal value | $1,790.9B |
| = Enterprise value (file) | $2,862.4B |
| + Net cash (debt) (file; negative = net debt) | $23.6B |
| = Equity value (computed here) | $2,886.0B |
| ÷ Diluted / implied shares (file) | 24,147M |
| = Value per share (computed here from rounded file values) | $119.52 vs file base $119.52 |
Reverse-DCF check
Price implies an after-SBC FCF margin of 56.0% vs TTM 39.5% (DCF summary.json).
Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.1% | $126.60 | $130.18 | $134.05 |
| 15.6% | $121.38 | $124.64 | $128.16 |
| 16.1% | $116.54 | $119.52 | $122.72 |
| 16.6% | $112.05 | $114.77 | $117.69 |
| 17.1% | $107.85 | $110.35 | $113.03 |
Bear / base / bull scenarios
| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $57.49 | -66% | 30.6% fading to 8.1% | 33.6% → 33.6% | 17.1% | 2.5% |
| Base | $119.52 | -29% | 55.1% fading to 13.0% | 39.5% → 39.5% | 16.1% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $146.38 | -13% | 61.2% fading to 14.2% | 39.5% → 39.5% | 15.1% | 2.5% |
Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $303.0B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $134.4B / $-7.3B / $127.0B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $7.2B (2.4% of rev; 5.7% of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Jul 26 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $119.8B = 39.5% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Jan 31, 2027): $411.9B; FY2 $692.1B (FY2/FY1 68.0%); 3Y CAGR 61.2% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $189.8B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 61.2% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 55.1% (90%) / 30.6% (50%) / 61.2% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $23.6B | Data Collector |
| Margin | Base/bull flat at TTM after-SBC margin; bear 85% of it | team default |
DCF caveats:
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).
Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-11-rerun/NVDA.md
DCF Analyst model, rerun by Fair Value Coordinator on today's data. Input file: data/2026-11-11/NVDA.md. Generated 2026-11-11 07:16 MST (Phoenix).
Price used: $168.89 (regular-session close Nov 10, 2026). Shares 24,147M (diluted/implied, Yahoo impliedSharesOutstanding per Data Collector 2026-11-11).
| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $57.49 | -66% | 30.6% fading to 8.1% | 33.6% → 33.6% | 17.1% | 2.5% |
| Base | $119.52 | -29% | 55.1% fading to 13.0% | 39.5% → 39.5% | 16.1% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $146.38 | -13% | 61.2% fading to 14.2% | 39.5% → 39.5% | 15.1% | 2.5% |
WACC build
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 2.25 (5Y observed (Data Collector)); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 16.2%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 99.1% / debt 0.9% (mkt cap $4,080.0B, debt $38.9B)
- WACC 16.1% → 16.1%
Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $303.0B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $134.4B / $-7.3B / $127.0B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $7.2B (2.4% of rev; 5.7% of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Jul 26 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $119.8B = 39.5% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Jan 31, 2027): $411.9B; FY2 $692.1B (FY2/FY1 68.0%); 3Y CAGR 61.2% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $189.8B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 61.2% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 55.1% (90%) / 30.6% (50%) / 61.2% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $23.6B | Data Collector |
| Margin | Base/bull flat at TTM after-SBC margin; bear 85% of it | team default |
Base-case 5-year FCF ($B)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55.1% | 469.8 | 39.5% | 185.7 | 160.0 |
| 2 | 44.6% | 679.2 | 39.5% | 268.5 | 199.1 |
| 3 | 34.0% | 910.5 | 39.5% | 359.9 | 229.9 |
| 4 | 23.5% | 1,124.7 | 39.5% | 444.6 | 244.5 |
| 5 | 13.0% | 1,271.1 | 39.5% | 502.5 | 238.0 |
Terminal value check (base)
- Gordon TV $3,781.3B, PV $1,790.9B; EV $2,862.4B; TV share of EV 62.6%
- Implied exit multiple 7.5x year-5 FCF vs current EV/FCF TTM 31.9x (pre-SBC)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $168.89: 56.0% vs TTM 39.5%
Sensitivity – base case $/share (WACC vs terminal g)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.1% | $126.60 | $130.18 | $134.05 |
| 15.6% | $121.38 | $124.64 | $128.16 |
| 16.1% | $116.54 | $119.52 | $122.72 |
| 16.6% | $112.05 | $114.77 | $117.69 |
| 17.1% | $107.85 | $110.35 | $113.03 |
Sources
- Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (
price,summaryDetail,defaultKeyStatistics,financialData,calendarEvents,earningsTrend,incomeStatementHistory): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/NVDA — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET - Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/NVDA — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 10, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=NVDA — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
- TTM SBC: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=trailing (fetched 2026-11-11 ~05:25 MST)
Caveats
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).
3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights
Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.
Low (peer 25th pct)
$211.26
Mid (peer median)
$333.41
High (peer 75th pct)
$549.65
Price used: $168.89 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market) · Shares: 24.15B basic shares outstanding (S&P GMI via stockanalysis; not a fully diluted count)
How the multiples combine: equal-weight average of 4 usable multiples (NTM P/E, NTM EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA (TTM), FY1 P/FCF).
Each multiple: peer 25th / median / 75th → implied $/share
| Multiple | NVDA now | Peer 25th / median / 75th (n) | Implied $/share low / mid / high |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTM P/E | 11.7x | 19.0x / 27.4x / 32.8x (6) | $274.16 / $395.77 / $474.57 |
| NTM EV/Sales | 6.4x | 5.3x / 8.4x / 9.3x (6) | $138.00 / $220.13 / $243.84 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 20.1x | 21.4x / 39.5x / 68.5x (6) | $179.70 / $330.24 / $571.47 |
| FY1 P/FCF | 21.5x | 32.2x / 49.3x / 115.6x (5) | $253.18 / $387.50 / $908.70 |
Peer set and multiples
Large-cap / AI semiconductors: AMD is the closest GPU/accelerator peer; AVGO, MRVL, QCOM, ARM and INTC cover the remaining merchant silicon, IP and foundry-customer set. TSM, MU and TXN were left out of the primary set (foundry, memory-cycle and analog respectively).
| Peer | NTM P/E | NTM EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | FY1 P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA (subject) | 11.7x | 6.4x | 20.1x | 21.5x |
| AMD | 31.5x | 9.3x | 75.3x | 123.3x |
| AVGO | 17.1x | 9.2x | 31.0x | 32.2x |
| ARM | 65.7x | 25.5x | 169.1x | 115.6x |
| INTC | 33.2x | 4.5x | 15.9x | n/a |
| QCOM | 17.5x | 4.2x | 18.3x | 22.3x |
| MRVL | 23.2x | 7.6x | 48.0x | 49.3x |
FY1 ends Jan 31, 2027 (w on FY1 = 0.222). Consensus FY1/FY2 non-GAAP EPS 9.32 / 15.93; NTM EPS 14.464. NTM sales $629.95B (FY1 $411.88B, FY2 $692.09B). TTM EBITDA $201.27B. Consensus FY1 FCF $189.85B.
Peer cells marked n/a (and why):
- INTC FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF 3203.4x dropped (FCF too small / too depressed; cap 150x)
Method notes (analyst)
- Multiples are computed from the same source financials for the ticker and every peer (not the vendor's black-box "Forward PE / Forward PS", which is not always consistent with consensus FY1/FY2 EPS and sales).
- NTM P/E and NTM EV/Sales use day-weighted NTM = w×FY1 + (1−w)×FY2, with w = days remaining to FY1 period end from 2026-11-11 ÷ 365.25. If FY2 is missing, FY1 is used and labeled as such.
- EV/EBITDA is trailing-twelve-month; forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source.
- P/FCF uses consensus FY1 FCF (FY2 FCF is gated). Dropped when FY1 FCF is ≤ 0 or the implied P/FCF exceeds 150x (FCF too small to capitalize).
- P/E is dropped when NTM/FY1 EPS is ≤ 0.05 or the multiple exceeds 150x.
- Low / mid / high = peer 25th percentile / median / 75th percentile (linear interpolation, inclusive), applied to the ticker's own NTM EPS, NTM sales, TTM EBITDA, or FY1 FCF. EV multiples are converted to equity as (implied EV + net cash) / basic shares.
- A multiple enters the blended range only if at least three peers have a usable figure and the ticker's own denominator is meaningful.
- 5-year average and range of the ticker's own multiples are not available from the provided free source (the stockanalysis "Financial Ratio History" section is present as a heading with no figures in the scrape).
Adjustments and judgment
- NVDA is cheaper than this semiconductor set on NTM P/E (the peer median is lifted by ARM and INTC) and on FY1 P/FCF, and closer to the median on NTM EV/Sales and TTM EV/EBITDA.
- ARM (IP licensing, very high EV/EBITDA and P/E) and INTC (depressed earnings, high NTM P/E, and FY1 P/FCF of several thousand times, which was dropped as meaningless) distort the set in opposite ways. The IQR is still wide.
- Consensus implies a very large FY2 step-up in sales and EPS, so NTM multiples are well below FY1 multiples. If that step-up slips, the NTM P/E “cheapness” shrinks.
- TSM, MU and TXN were not used in the primary set (foundry, memory-cycle, analog).
5-year own-multiple history: not available in the free sources used.
Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-11/NVDA.md
Analyst: Relative Valuation Analyst Company: NVIDIA Price used: $168.89 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market) Shares: 24.15B basic shares outstanding (S&P GMI via stockanalysis; not a fully diluted count) Net cash (debt): $23.61B Computed EV: $4,055.08B (= price × shares − net cash; may differ slightly from the rounded published EV)
Method
- Multiples are computed from the same source financials for the ticker and every peer (not the vendor's black-box "Forward PE / Forward PS", which is not always consistent with consensus FY1/FY2 EPS and sales).
- NTM P/E and NTM EV/Sales use day-weighted NTM = w×FY1 + (1−w)×FY2, with w = days remaining to FY1 period end from 2026-11-11 ÷ 365.25. If FY2 is missing, FY1 is used and labeled as such.
- EV/EBITDA is trailing-twelve-month; forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source.
- P/FCF uses consensus FY1 FCF (FY2 FCF is gated). Dropped when FY1 FCF is ≤ 0 or the implied P/FCF exceeds 150x (FCF too small to capitalize).
- P/E is dropped when NTM/FY1 EPS is ≤ 0.05 or the multiple exceeds 150x.
- Low / mid / high = peer 25th percentile / median / 75th percentile (linear interpolation, inclusive), applied to the ticker's own NTM EPS, NTM sales, TTM EBITDA, or FY1 FCF. EV multiples are converted to equity as (implied EV + net cash) / basic shares.
- A multiple enters the blended range only if at least three peers have a usable figure and the ticker's own denominator is meaningful.
- 5-year average and range of the ticker's own multiples are not available from the provided free source (the stockanalysis "Financial Ratio History" section is present as a heading with no figures in the scrape).
Peer set
Large-cap / AI semiconductors: AMD is the closest GPU/accelerator peer; AVGO, MRVL, QCOM, ARM and INTC cover the remaining merchant silicon, IP and foundry-customer set. TSM, MU and TXN were left out of the primary set (foundry, memory-cycle and analog respectively).
| Peer | NTM P/E | NTM EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | FY1 P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA (subject) | 11.7x | 6.4x | 20.1x | 21.5x |
| AMD | 31.5x | 9.3x | 75.3x | 123.3x |
| AVGO | 17.1x | 9.2x | 31.0x | 32.2x |
| ARM | 65.7x | 25.5x | 169.1x | 115.6x |
| INTC | 33.2x | 4.5x | 15.9x | n/a |
| QCOM | 17.5x | 4.2x | 18.3x | 22.3x |
| MRVL | 23.2x | 7.6x | 48.0x | 49.3x |
FY1 ends Jan 31, 2027 (w on FY1 = 0.222). Consensus FY1/FY2 non-GAAP EPS 9.32 / 15.93; NTM EPS 14.464. NTM sales $629.95B (FY1 $411.88B, FY2 $692.09B). TTM EBITDA $201.27B. Consensus FY1 FCF $189.85B.
Peer cells marked n/a (and why):
- INTC FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF 3203.4x dropped (FCF too small / too depressed; cap 150x)
Implied per-share value
| Multiple | NVDA now | Peer 25th / median / 75th (n) | Implied $/share low / mid / high |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTM P/E | 11.7x | 19.0x / 27.4x / 32.8x (6) | $274.16 / $395.77 / $474.57 |
| NTM EV/Sales | 6.4x | 5.3x / 8.4x / 9.3x (6) | $138.00 / $220.13 / $243.84 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 20.1x | 21.4x / 39.5x / 68.5x (6) | $179.70 / $330.24 / $571.47 |
| FY1 P/FCF | 21.5x | 32.2x / 49.3x / 115.6x (5) | $253.18 / $387.50 / $908.70 |
Current multiples vs own history
5-year average and range: n/a. The provided stockanalysis statistics scrape includes a “Financial Ratio History” heading with no figures (likely gated). No 5-year P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales or P/FCF average was invented or taken from another unpaid-login source in time for this run.
Blended range
Weights: equal-weight average of 4 usable multiples (NTM P/E, NTM EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA (TTM), FY1 P/FCF).
Low / mid / high: $211.26 / $333.41 / $549.65 Vs close $168.89: mid implies +97.4% upside.
Adjustments and judgment
- NVDA is cheaper than this semiconductor set on NTM P/E (the peer median is lifted by ARM and INTC) and on FY1 P/FCF, and closer to the median on NTM EV/Sales and TTM EV/EBITDA.
- ARM (IP licensing, very high EV/EBITDA and P/E) and INTC (depressed earnings, high NTM P/E, and FY1 P/FCF of several thousand times, which was dropped as meaningless) distort the set in opposite ways. The IQR is still wide.
- Consensus implies a very large FY2 step-up in sales and EPS, so NTM multiples are well below FY1 multiples. If that step-up slips, the NTM P/E “cheapness” shrinks.
- TSM, MU and TXN were not used in the primary set (foundry, memory-cycle, analog).
Data sources and as-of dates
- Prices: regular-session close Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market), from stockanalysis.com pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence), cross-checked in the coordinator input files vs the Yahoo Finance chart API.
- Fundamentals and consensus: stockanalysis.com statistics (stats last updated on the pages on Nov 11, 2026) and forecast (this ticker's forecast page last updated Nov 10, 2026) for NVDA and each peer. Forecast update dates differ by ticker.
- Raw files:
/workspace/fair-value/coordinator/2026-11-11/raw/(fetched 2026-11-11 05:23 MST (America/Phoenix)). Official collector folderdata/2026-11-11/did not yet have ticker files when this run started; coordinator fallback input files were used. - 5-year multiple history: n/a (not in the free scrape).
- Public web was used only to attempt WMT/COST for AMZN (stockanalysis Cloudflare 403; Yahoo quoteSummary unauthorized). No paid logins.
- Peer forecast update dates:
- NVDA: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
- AMD: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 9, 2026
- AVGO: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
- ARM: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 5, 2026
- INTC: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
- QCOM: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 11, 2026
- MRVL: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 9, 2026
4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid
- Blended fair value = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid
0.5 × $119.52 + 0.5 × $333.41 = $226.47 (report: $226.46) - Divergence check: |DCF base − relative mid| ÷ relative mid
|$119.52 − $333.41| ÷ $333.41 = 64.2% → above 25%: blended value is indicative and above 50%: low confidence
5Margin of safety → callCheap
- Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
($226.46 − $174.42) ÷ $226.46 = +23.0% (report: +23.0%) - Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = +29.8%; price vs FV = -23.0%
- Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
→ Cheap Low confidence
6Flags and notes4 flag(s)
Flags
⚑ DCF vs relative differ 64% (>25%): low confidence. Cheap rests on comps.
⚑ EARNINGS SOON: Tue Nov 17, 2026 after the close (in 6 days).
⚑ Pre-market +3.3% vs Nov 10 close on the chip rally (CoreWeave outlook); governance overhang from the board's independent investigation involving CEO Jensen Huang (news, Nov 11).
⚑ NTM P/E basis differs from vendor forward P/E, which pushes the relative mid up.
Coordinator notes
- Relative mid $333.41 (NTM P/E 11.7x computed from FY1/FY2 consensus vs semi peer median 27.4x) far above price; DCF base $119.52 below it.
- DCF: beta 2.25 gives a 16.1% WACC, which crushes the DCF. Sensitivity $107.85–$134.05.
Source files: data/2026-11-11/NVDA.md dcf/2026-11-11-rerun/NVDA.md relative/2026-11-11/NVDA.md