# NVDA – NVIDIA – DCF (2026-11-11)

DCF Analyst model, rerun by Fair Value Coordinator on today's data. Input file: `data/2026-11-11/NVDA.md`. Generated 2026-11-11 07:16 MST (Phoenix).

**Price used:** $168.89 (regular-session close Nov 10, 2026). Shares 24,147M (diluted/implied, Yahoo impliedSharesOutstanding per Data Collector 2026-11-11).

| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $57.49 | -66% | 30.6% fading to 8.1% | 33.6% → 33.6% | 17.1% | 2.5% |
| Base | **$119.52** | -29% | 55.1% fading to 13.0% | 39.5% → 39.5% | 16.1% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $146.38 | -13% | 61.2% fading to 14.2% | 39.5% → 39.5% | 15.1% | 2.5% |

## WACC build
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 2.25 (5Y observed (Data Collector)); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 16.2%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 99.1% / debt 0.9% (mkt cap $4,080.0B, debt $38.9B)
- WACC 16.1% → **16.1%**

## Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $303.0B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $134.4B / $-7.3B / $127.0B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $7.2B (2.4% of rev; 5.7% of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Jul 26 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $119.8B = 39.5% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Jan 31, 2027): $411.9B; FY2 $692.1B (FY2/FY1 68.0%); 3Y CAGR 61.2% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $189.8B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 61.2% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 55.1% (90%) / 30.6% (50%) / 61.2% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $23.6B | Data Collector |
| Margin | Base/bull flat at TTM after-SBC margin; bear 85% of it | team default |

## Base-case 5-year FCF ($B)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 55.1% | 469.8 | 39.5% | 185.7 | 160.0 |
| 2 | 44.6% | 679.2 | 39.5% | 268.5 | 199.1 |
| 3 | 34.0% | 910.5 | 39.5% | 359.9 | 229.9 |
| 4 | 23.5% | 1,124.7 | 39.5% | 444.6 | 244.5 |
| 5 | 13.0% | 1,271.1 | 39.5% | 502.5 | 238.0 |

## Terminal value check (base)
- Gordon TV $3,781.3B, PV $1,790.9B; EV $2,862.4B; TV share of EV 62.6%
- Implied exit multiple 7.5x year-5 FCF vs current EV/FCF TTM 31.9x (pre-SBC)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $168.89: **56.0%** vs TTM 39.5%

## Sensitivity – base case $/share (WACC vs terminal g)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.1% | $126.60 | $130.18 | $134.05 |
| 15.6% | $121.38 | $124.64 | $128.16 |
| 16.1% | $116.54 | $119.52 | $122.72 |
| 16.6% | $112.05 | $114.77 | $117.69 |
| 17.1% | $107.85 | $110.35 | $113.03 |

## Sources
- - Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (`price`, `summaryDetail`, `defaultKeyStatistics`, `financialData`, `calendarEvents`, `earningsTrend`, `incomeStatementHistory`): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/NVDA — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET
- Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/NVDA — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 10, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=NVDA — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
- TTM SBC: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=trailing (fetched 2026-11-11 ~05:25 MST)

## Caveats
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).