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SPCX SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies) Fair Low confidence

Fair-value build for 2026-11-11. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.

DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV
DCF n/m
$50.13$201.49
1 · Price
$142.50
›
2 · DCF base
n/m
›
3 · Relative mid
$117.57
›
4 · Blended FV
$117.57
›
5 · Margin of safety → call
-21.2% → Fair
1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps
Price used for the call
$142.50
$142.50 @9:17 (close $143.09)
Shares (diluted / implied)
13.581B
Net cash (debt)
$50.64B
Beta (5Y)
n/a (not found)
Market cap
$1.94T
TTM revenue
$32.04B
TTM FCF (OCF − capex)
-$39.29B

Collected by Financial Data Collector. Public sources only. Figures fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET. Every figure is sourced below; anything not found is marked n/a (not found) — no numbers were invented.

Not available from the public sources used:

Beta (5Y), 3Y EPS CAGR forecast, Next (future) confirmed earnings date

Forward EBITDA consensus: n/a (not found) on the free stockanalysis and Yahoo modules used.

Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-11/SPCX.md

Collected by Financial Data Collector. Public sources only. Figures fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET. Every figure is sourced below; anything not found is marked n/a (not found) — no numbers were invented.

What SPCX is

SPCX is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), a NasdaqGS-listed operating company (quote type: EQUITY), not an ETF. Yahoo Finance long name: “Space Exploration Technologies Corp.”; stockanalysis.com lists it as Space Exploration Technologies / SpaceX. This is not the older SPAC/ETF ticker reuse: it trades as a common equity with financial statements, consensus estimates, and a ~$1.94T market cap. IPO/listing is recent (2026); there is no 5-year beta and limited public trading history. The financials page has annual figures for FY2023–FY2025 plus TTM; treat pre-IPO years with care. Basic shares outstanding (8.25B) are far below implied/diluted shares (13.58B) used for market cap — use diluted shares for per-share work. TTM FCF is deeply negative because of heavy capex. Next earnings date was not listed as a future confirmed date on either source (last report: Oct 20, 2026).

Price and trading

FieldValueSource / as-of
Last regular-session close$143.09 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM ET (+1.02, +0.72% vs previous close $142.07). Exchange: NasdaqGS; quote type: EQUITY.Yahoo Finance quoteSummary regularMarketPrice / regularMarketTime; cross-checked vs stockanalysis close $143.09 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST and Yahoo chart API
Pre-market$147.43 (+4.34, +3.03%) as of Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET (Yahoo Finance quoteSummary preMarket* vs regular-session close $143.09). Cross-check stockanalysis pre-market: $146.15 (+3.06, +2.14%) at Nov 11, 2026, 5:35 AM EST.Yahoo Finance quoteSummary, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET
Market cap$1.94TYahoo price.marketCap (stockanalysis: $1.94T)
Enterprise valuestockanalysis EV: $1.89T; Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.enterpriseValue: $1.89TSee cash-definition note

Shares, cash, debt, beta

FieldValueSource / as-of
Shares outstanding (basic)8.247BYahoo defaultKeyStatistics.sharesOutstanding (stockanalysis shares outstanding: 13.580B; stats updated Nov 11, 2026)
Diluted / implied shares13.581BYahoo defaultKeyStatistics.impliedSharesOutstanding. This is the share count implied by market cap / last price (13.581B) and is the figure to use for per-share DCF / relative work.
Float3.047BYahoo defaultKeyStatistics.floatShares
Cash$89.86B (Cash & Cash Equivalents)Primary: stockanalysis, stats updated Nov 11, 2026; Yahoo totalCash $89.86B
Total debt$39.22Bstockanalysis / Yahoo financialData.totalDebt (Yahoo: $39.22B)
Net cash (debt)$50.64BNegative = net debt. stockanalysis definition uses the cash line above minus total debt.
Beta (5Y)n/a (not found)Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.beta n/a; stockanalysis Beta (5Y) n/a

Cash / debt detail:

  • stockanalysis “Cash & Cash Equivalents”: $89.86B (stats updated Nov 11, 2026)
  • Yahoo Finance financialData.totalCash: $89.86B (typically cash & short-term investments; may be narrower than SA’s cash + marketable securities)
  • stockanalysis total debt: $39.22B
  • Yahoo financialData.totalDebt: $39.22B (agrees with stockanalysis)
  • stockanalysis net cash (debt): $50.64B → net cash $50.64B [consistent with SA EV vs market cap]
  • Yahoo totalCash − totalDebt: $50.64B → net cash $50.64B (may differ from SA if cash definitions differ)

TTM financials

FieldValueSource / as-of
TTM revenue$32.04Bstockanalysis Income Statement (stats updated Nov 11, 2026); Yahoo financialData.totalRevenue $32.04B
TTM EBITDA$11.74Bstockanalysis; Yahoo financialData.ebitda $11.74B
TTM net income-$3.43Bstockanalysis; Yahoo netIncomeToCommon -$3.43B
TTM EPS (GAAP)-0.55stockanalysis; Yahoo trailingEps 0.23
TTM operating cash flow$15.76Bstockanalysis; Yahoo operatingCashflow $15.76B
TTM capex-$55.05Bstockanalysis (sign is cash outflow, negative)
TTM D&A$11.16Bstockanalysis
TTM free cash flow (OCF − capex)-$39.29Bstockanalysis
Yahoo / levered FCF (do not mix with the line above)n/a (not found)Yahoo financialData.freeCashflow
TTM operating margin1.8%stockanalysis
YoY revenue growth (latest reported quarter / Yahoo)161.4%Yahoo financialData.revenueGrowth
YoY earnings growth (Yahoo)n/a (not found)Yahoo financialData.earningsGrowth

stockanalysis TTM FCF (OCF − capex): -$39.29B (OCF $15.76B + capex -$55.05B = -$39.29B)

EPS discrepancy: stockanalysis TTM GAAP EPS is -0.55, consistent with TTM net income of -$3.43B (loss). Yahoo trailingEps is +0.23, which is inconsistent with Yahoo’s own netIncomeToCommon of -$3.43B. Prefer the loss-making GAAP figure (or -$3.43B / diluted shares) unless a source explains the positive Yahoo EPS. Do not use a positive P/E based on the Yahoo trailing EPS alone.

Recent historical annual figures

Fiscal year calendar: January - December. Figures in USD from stockanalysis.com financials / cash-flow pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence; source pages fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)). Values originally displayed in millions.

PeriodRevenueOperating incomeEBITDA (OpInc + D&A, approx.)Net incomeEPS (GAAP)OCFCapexFCF (OCF − capex)
FY 2025$18.67B-$2.06B$4.97B-$4.94B-1.69$6.79B-$20.91B-$14.12B
FY 2024$14.02B$742.00M$4.57B$18.00M0.01$5.78B-$11.16B-$5.39B
FY 2023$10.39B$507.00M$3.14B-$4.63B-1.68$4.52B-$4.42B$105.00M

Note: Annual EBITDA is not published as a separate line on the free income-statement page, so the OpInc + D&A figure is an approximation (does not add other non-cash items). TTM EBITDA above is the source-reported figure.

Consensus estimates and growth

FieldValueSource / as-of
Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026)$48.90Bstockanalysis forecast, updated Nov 10, 2026; FY0 / last year on that page $18.67B → FY1 growth 161.9%
Consensus revenue FY2$180.67Bstockanalysis forecast, updated Nov 10, 2026; FY1→FY2 growth 269.5%
Consensus EPS FY1 (typically non-GAAP on this source)0.01stockanalysis forecast
Consensus EPS FY22.66stockanalysis forecast
Consensus FCF FY1-$56.57Bstockanalysis forecast (FCF column, last period); prior-year column on that table n/a (not found)
Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR)161.8%stockanalysis statistics
EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR)n/a (not found)stockanalysis statistics
Analyst average price target$255.06 (40 analysts on stockanalysis; Yahoo targetMeanPrice $255.06 from 37 opinions)stockanalysis / Yahoo, forecast updated Nov 10, 2026

Yahoo Finance earningsTrend (cross-check; periods as labeled by Yahoo):

Yahoo periodEnd dateConsensus revenueConsensus EPS# analysts (EPS)Growth (Yahoo)
Current quarter (0q)2026-12-31$22.96B (low $19.09B, high $27.39B)0.39 (low 0.02, high 0.68)24n/a (not found)
Next quarter (+1q)2027-03-31$33.30B (low $23.88B, high $36.86B)0.82 (low 0.15, high 1.29)14n/a (not found)
Current FY (0y)2026-12-31$48.90B (low $40.82B, high $54.47B)0.23 (low -1.29, high 0.95)33n/a (not found)
Next FY (+1y)2027-12-31$180.67B (low $71.75B, high $290.06B)4.06 (low 0.34, high 13.49)3437048.0%

Caution: Yahoo’s “forward P/E” and forwardEps sometimes correspond to FY2 / a later year, not FY1. stockanalysis “Forward PE” is generally price / FY1 consensus EPS. Do not mix them. Also, for names that just reported, Yahoo’s 0q/0y rows can lag the print.

Current multiples

Primary set is stockanalysis (S&P GMI), which is internally consistent with that source’s price, market cap, EV, and TTM/FY1 figures (stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Nov 10, 2026). Computed cross-checks use Yahoo last close $143.09 and Yahoo market cap $1.94T.

MultiplestockanalysisComputed cross-checkNotes
P/E TTMn/a (not found)n/a (not found) (close / TTM GAAP EPS -0.55); Yahoo trailing P/E 622.13xGAAP trailing
Forward P/E (FY1 EPS 0.01)47.36x14309.00xPreferred forward multiple
Yahoo stated forward P/E53.72xuses Yahoo forwardEps 2.66Often FY2/NTM, not FY1
P/S TTM60.65x60.65x
Forward P/S (FY1 revenue)13.19x39.74x
P/FCF TTM (OCF−capex)n/a (not found)n/a (not found)Blank/n/a if FCF ≤ 0
Forward P/FCF (FY1 FCF)n/a (not a labeled SA field)n/a (not found)market cap / FY1 consensus FCF
EV/Sales TTM59.07x58.99x using SA EV $1.89T
EV/EBITDA TTM161.27x160.99xForward EBITDA consensus was not on these free pages
EV/FCF TTMn/a (not found)n/a (not found)Blank/n/a if FCF ≤ 0

Earnings date

stockanalysis: last: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 after market close (stats updated Nov 11, 2026); Yahoo Finance calendarEvents: 2026-10-20 (Yahoo: not marked as estimate) — this date is in the past as of Nov 11, 2026; Yahoo consensus for that report: EPS 0.32 (low 0.02, high 0.75); revenue $22.96B (low $19.09B, high $27.39B)

Notable recent news

Headlines from Yahoo Finance news search, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET. These are the source’s recent items (not a complete news file) and have not been independently verified beyond the headline list.

Missing / not available from public sources used

Beta (5Y), 3Y EPS CAGR forecast, Next (future) confirmed earnings date

Forward EBITDA consensus: n/a (not found) on the free stockanalysis and Yahoo modules used.

Sources

2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity
DCF not meaningful for SPCX on 2026-11-11, so it is excluded and fair value is relative-only. LOW CONFIDENCE / PROVISIONAL – DCF NOT MEANINGFUL AS A POINT ESTIMATE. TTM FCF is deeply negative ($-39.3B before SBC, -137.4% margin after SBC), consensus FY1 FCF is $-56.6B, there is no observed beta and only ~5 quarters of public cash-flow history. A constant-margin DCF gives a negative equity value, which says nothing useful. Below: (1) the mechanical result for transparency, and (2) the year-1-to-5 FCF margin the market price implies. Use relative valuation for SPCX.
Mechanical DCF output, shown for transparency (excluded from fair value)

WACC build-up via CAPM

  1. Cost of equity = risk-free + β × ERP
    Ke = 10Y UST 5.0% + 1.50 × 5.0% = 12.5%
    Beta note: NOT AVAILABLE (short history) - analyst placeholder 1.5, low confidence
  2. Cost of debt (assumption: 10Y + 1.0%) = 6.0% pre-tax → 4.7% after 21% tax
  3. Market-value weights: equity 98.0% / debt 2.0%
  4. WACC = 98.0% × 12.5% + 2.0% × 4.7% = 12.3%
WACC lines exactly as in the DCF file
  • Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
  • Beta: 1.50 (NOT AVAILABLE (short history) - analyst placeholder 1.5, low confidence); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 12.5%
  • Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
  • Weights (market): equity 98.0% / debt 2.0% (mkt cap $1,940.0B, debt $39.2B)
  • WACC 12.3% → 12.3%

SBC treatment

TTM SBC: $4.7B (14.8% of rev; n/m of FCF). Starting FCF after SBC (OCF − capex − SBC): $-44.0B = -137.4% margin.

Revenue and FCF projections (base case)

YearRev growthRevenueFCF marginFCFPV
1145.6%78.7-137.4%-108.1-96.3
2117.0%170.8-137.4%-234.7-186.0
388.4%321.7-137.4%-442.0-311.9
459.7%513.9-137.4%-706.1-443.6
531.1%673.8-137.4%-925.9-517.8

Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)

  • Gordon TV $-9,658.1B, PV $-5,401.1B; EV $-6,956.6B; TV share of EV n/m
  • Implied exit multiple nanx year-5 FCF (current EV/FCF n/a)
  • FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $143.09: 37.4% vs TTM -137.4%

Enterprise value → equity → per share

Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states net cash (debt), shares only. Net cash (debt) $50.60B; shares 13,581M.

Reverse-DCF check

Price implies an after-SBC FCF margin of 37.4% vs TTM -137.4% (DCF summary.json).

Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g2.0%2.5%3.0%
11.3%$-550.71$-577.67$-607.87
11.8%$-517.40$-541.19$-567.67
12.3%$-487.40$-508.50$-531.87
12.8%$-460.25$-479.07$-499.80
13.3%$-435.57$-452.42$-470.91

Bear / base / bull scenarios

Scenario$/sharevs priceStart rev growthFCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5WACCg
Bear$-134.64-194%80.9% fading to 18.2%-116.8% → -116.8%13.3%2.5%
Base$-508.50-455%145.6% fading to 31.1%-137.4% → -137.4%12.3%2.5%
Bull$-726.26-608%161.8% fading to 34.4%-137.4% → -137.4%11.3%2.5%

Key assumptions

ItemValueBasis
TTM revenue$32.0BData Collector
TTM OCF / capex / FCF$15.8B / $-55.0B / $-39.3BData Collector
TTM SBC$4.7B (14.8% of rev; n/m of FCF)stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Sep 30 2026
FCF after SBC (base yr-0)$-44.0B = -137.4% marginOCF − capex − SBC
Consensus revenueFY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026): $48.9B; FY2 $180.7B (FY2/FY1 269.5%); 3Y CAGR 161.8%Data Collector
Consensus FCF FY1$-56.6BData Collector (pre-SBC)
Consensus-level start growth161.8% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1conservative
Base / bear / bull start growth145.6% (90%) / 80.9% (50%) / 161.8% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g
Net cash (debt)$50.6BData Collector
MarginBase/bull flat at TTM after-SBC margin; bear 85% of itteam default
DCF caveats:
  • SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
  • Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
  • Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).
  • SPCX: placeholder beta 1.5 is an assumption, not data. Value is extremely sensitive to the long-run margin; the implied-margin line is the useful output.
Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-11-rerun/SPCX.md

DCF Analyst model, rerun by Fair Value Coordinator on today's data. Input file: data/2026-11-11/SPCX.md. Generated 2026-11-11 07:16 MST (Phoenix).

LOW CONFIDENCE / PROVISIONAL – DCF NOT MEANINGFUL AS A POINT ESTIMATE. TTM FCF is deeply negative ($-39.3B before SBC, -137.4% margin after SBC), consensus FY1 FCF is $-56.6B, there is no observed beta and only ~5 quarters of public cash-flow history. A constant-margin DCF gives a negative equity value, which says nothing useful. Below: (1) the mechanical result for transparency, and (2) the year-1-to-5 FCF margin the market price implies. Use relative valuation for SPCX.

Price used: $143.09 (regular-session close Nov 10, 2026). Shares 13,581M (diluted/implied, Yahoo impliedSharesOutstanding per Data Collector 2026-11-11).

Scenario$/sharevs priceStart rev growthFCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5WACCg
Bear$-134.64-194%80.9% fading to 18.2%-116.8% → -116.8%13.3%2.5%
Base$-508.50-455%145.6% fading to 31.1%-137.4% → -137.4%12.3%2.5%
Bull$-726.26-608%161.8% fading to 34.4%-137.4% → -137.4%11.3%2.5%

WACC build

  • Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
  • Beta: 1.50 (NOT AVAILABLE (short history) - analyst placeholder 1.5, low confidence); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 12.5%
  • Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
  • Weights (market): equity 98.0% / debt 2.0% (mkt cap $1,940.0B, debt $39.2B)
  • WACC 12.3% → 12.3%

Key assumptions

ItemValueBasis
TTM revenue$32.0BData Collector
TTM OCF / capex / FCF$15.8B / $-55.0B / $-39.3BData Collector
TTM SBC$4.7B (14.8% of rev; n/m of FCF)stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Sep 30 2026
FCF after SBC (base yr-0)$-44.0B = -137.4% marginOCF − capex − SBC
Consensus revenueFY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026): $48.9B; FY2 $180.7B (FY2/FY1 269.5%); 3Y CAGR 161.8%Data Collector
Consensus FCF FY1$-56.6BData Collector (pre-SBC)
Consensus-level start growth161.8% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1conservative
Base / bear / bull start growth145.6% (90%) / 80.9% (50%) / 161.8% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g
Net cash (debt)$50.6BData Collector
MarginBase/bull flat at TTM after-SBC margin; bear 85% of itteam default

Base-case 5-year FCF ($B)

YearRev growthRevenueFCF marginFCFPV
1145.6%78.7-137.4%-108.1-96.3
2117.0%170.8-137.4%-234.7-186.0
388.4%321.7-137.4%-442.0-311.9
459.7%513.9-137.4%-706.1-443.6
531.1%673.8-137.4%-925.9-517.8

Terminal value check (base)

  • Gordon TV $-9,658.1B, PV $-5,401.1B; EV $-6,956.6B; TV share of EV n/m
  • Implied exit multiple nanx year-5 FCF (current EV/FCF n/a)
  • FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $143.09: 37.4% vs TTM -137.4%

Sensitivity – base case $/share (WACC vs terminal g)

WACC \ g2.0%2.5%3.0%
11.3%$-550.71$-577.67$-607.87
11.8%$-517.40$-541.19$-567.67
12.3%$-487.40$-508.50$-531.87
12.8%$-460.25$-479.07$-499.80
13.3%$-435.57$-452.42$-470.91

Sources

Caveats

  • SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
  • Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
  • Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).
  • SPCX: placeholder beta 1.5 is an assumption, not data. Value is extremely sensitive to the long-run margin; the implied-margin line is the useful output.
3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights
Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.
Low (peer 25th pct)
$58.24
Mid (peer median)
$117.57
High (peer 75th pct)
$193.38

Price used: $143.09 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market) · Shares: 13.58B basic shares outstanding (S&P GMI via stockanalysis; not a fully diluted count)

Peer groups and blend weights

GroupWeightLowMidHighWeight × mid
Aerospace/defense30%$33.59$35.45$43.30$10.63
Satellite/comms40%$76.49$211.46$351.08$84.58
AI30%$58.56$74.51$133.19$22.35
Weighted blend (computed here)100%$58.24$117.57$193.38$117.57

File weights: 30% aerospace/defense, 40% satellite/comms, 30% AI. Satellite/comms is weighted slightly higher because Starlink is the main driver of the consensus FY2 revenue step-up; aerospace/defense is the manufacturing/launch analog but uses mature-growth multiples; AI is included for optionality but is not current mix.. File blended range: $58.24 / $117.57 / $193.38.

Equal-weight alternative in the file: $56.21 / $107.14 / $175.86.

Peer groups, multiples and implied values (from the analyst file)

No close public operating peer. Three groups as requested: aerospace/defense (launch/government manufacturing), satellite/comms (Starlink analog), and AI/AI-infrastructure (strategic optionality). SATS statistics/forecast pages returned 404 (listing resolves as Strive preferred, not EchoStar); GSAT is used as the SATS/GSAT stand-in.

Aerospace/defense: LMT, NOC, RTX, GD, RKLB

Rationale: launch vehicles, government and manufacturing intensity. Mature primes (LMT, NOC, RTX, GD) plus RKLB as the only high-growth launch comp. Mature-prime multiples understate a 162% 3Y revenue CAGR; they are used as a conservative anchor.

PeerNTM P/ENTM EV/SalesEV/EBITDA (TTM)FY1 P/FCF
SPCX (subject)62.3x11.6x161.2xn/a
LMT18.3x1.8x15.6x18.0x
NOC18.3x2.0x12.5x23.5x
RTX25.0x2.9x17.7x29.5x
GD19.7x1.8x15.2x19.7x
RKLBn/a27.0xn/an/a

FY1 ends Dec 31, 2026 (w on FY1 = 0.137). Consensus FY1/FY2 non-GAAP EPS 0.01 / 2.66; NTM EPS 2.297. NTM sales $162.63B (FY1 $48.90B, FY2 $180.67B). TTM EBITDA $11.74B. Consensus FY1 FCF $-56.57B. Flags: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero) Peer cells marked n/a (and why):

  • RKLB NTM P/E: NTM P/E not meaningful (NTM/FY1 EPS 0.02)
  • RKLB EV/EBITDA (TTM): EV/EBITDA (TTM) n/a (TTM EBITDA <= 0)
  • RKLB FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
MultipleSPCX nowPeer 25th / median / 75th (n)Implied $/share low / mid / high
NTM P/E62.3x18.3x / 19.0x / 21.0x (4)$42.11 / $43.70 / $48.32
NTM EV/Sales11.6x1.8x / 2.0x / 2.9x (5)$25.07 / $27.20 / $38.29
EV/EBITDA (TTM)161.2x14.5x / 15.4x / 16.1x (4)$16.29 / $17.05 / $17.67 — not used in blend (shown but excluded from blend: TTM EBITDA is not representative given NTM sales ~5x TTM sales)
FY1 P/FCFn/a19.3x / 21.6x / 25.0x (4)not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful)

Implied range (Aerospace/defense): $33.59 / $35.45 / $43.30 (equal-weight average of 2 usable multiples (NTM P/E, NTM EV/Sales).)

Satellite/comms: ASTS, IRDM, VSAT, GSAT

Rationale: closest operating analog for Starlink. ASTS, IRDM, VSAT and GSAT (SATS page was 404). Several names are unprofitable or thinly covered; the group leans on EV/Sales and the median is sensitive to ASTS/GSAT.

PeerNTM P/ENTM EV/SalesEV/EBITDA (TTM)FY1 P/FCF
SPCX (subject)62.3x11.6x161.2xn/a
ASTSn/a27.6xn/an/a
IRDM32.1x7.0x17.7x16.6x
VSATn/a3.2x11.4x44.7x
GSAT149.9x33.1x135.3x130.1x

Peer cells marked n/a (and why):

  • ASTS NTM P/E: NTM P/E not meaningful (NTM/FY1 EPS -1.60)
  • VSAT NTM P/E: NTM P/E not meaningful (NTM/FY1 EPS -0.18)
  • ASTS EV/EBITDA (TTM): EV/EBITDA (TTM) n/a (TTM EBITDA <= 0)
  • ASTS FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
MultipleSPCX nowPeer 25th / median / 75th (n)Implied $/share low / mid / high
NTM P/E62.3x61.5x / 91.0x / 120.4x (2)$141.35 / $209.02 / $276.69 — not used in blend (too few peers with a usable multiple (n=2))
NTM EV/Sales11.6x6.1x / 17.3x / 29.0x (4)$76.49 / $211.46 / $351.08
EV/EBITDA (TTM)161.2x14.5x / 17.7x / 76.5x (3)$16.30 / $19.04 / $69.88 — not used in blend (shown but excluded from blend: TTM EBITDA is not representative given NTM sales ~5x TTM sales)
FY1 P/FCFn/a30.6x / 44.7x / 87.4x (3)not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful)

Implied range (Satellite/comms): $76.49 / $211.46 / $351.08 (equal-weight average of 1 usable multiple (NTM EV/Sales).)

AI: NVDA, PLTR, GOOG, MSFT

Rationale: AI / AI-infrastructure optionality named in the brief (NVDA, PLTR, GOOG, MSFT). These are not operational peers for launch or satellite services; they capture the market’s willingness to pay for scarce AI-linked growth, not current mix.

PeerNTM P/ENTM EV/SalesEV/EBITDA (TTM)FY1 P/FCF
SPCX (subject)62.3x11.6x161.2xn/a
NVDA11.7x6.4x20.1x21.5x
PLTR69.6x31.7x118.0x82.7x
GOOG18.8x5.5x18.3xn/a
MSFT24.7x9.5x19.6x121.1x

Peer cells marked n/a (and why):

  • GOOG FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
MultipleSPCX nowPeer 25th / median / 75th (n)Implied $/share low / mid / high
NTM P/E62.3x17.1x / 21.8x / 36.0x (4)$39.18 / $50.06 / $82.61
NTM EV/Sales11.6x6.2x / 8.0x / 15.0x (4)$77.94 / $98.96 / $183.77
EV/EBITDA (TTM)161.2x19.3x / 19.9x / 44.6x (4)$20.38 / $20.91 / $42.30 — not used in blend (shown but excluded from blend: TTM EBITDA is not representative given NTM sales ~5x TTM sales)
FY1 P/FCFn/a52.1x / 82.7x / 101.9x (3)not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful)

Implied range (AI): $58.56 / $74.51 / $133.19 (equal-weight average of 2 usable multiples (NTM P/E, NTM EV/Sales).)

Method notes (analyst)
  • Multiples are computed from the same source financials for the ticker and every peer (not the vendor's black-box "Forward PE / Forward PS", which is not always consistent with consensus FY1/FY2 EPS and sales).
  • NTM P/E and NTM EV/Sales use day-weighted NTM = w×FY1 + (1−w)×FY2, with w = days remaining to FY1 period end from 2026-11-11 ÷ 365.25. If FY2 is missing, FY1 is used and labeled as such.
  • EV/EBITDA is trailing-twelve-month; forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source.
  • P/FCF uses consensus FY1 FCF (FY2 FCF is gated). Dropped when FY1 FCF is ≤ 0 or the implied P/FCF exceeds 150x (FCF too small to capitalize).
  • P/E is dropped when NTM/FY1 EPS is ≤ 0.05 or the multiple exceeds 150x.
  • Low / mid / high = peer 25th percentile / median / 75th percentile (linear interpolation, inclusive), applied to the ticker's own NTM EPS, NTM sales, TTM EBITDA, or FY1 FCF. EV multiples are converted to equity as (implied EV + net cash) / basic shares.
  • A multiple enters the blended range only if at least three peers have a usable figure and the ticker's own denominator is meaningful.
  • 5-year average and range of the ticker's own multiples are not available from the provided free source (the stockanalysis "Financial Ratio History" section is present as a heading with no figures in the scrape).

Adjustments and judgment

  • SPCX is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), NASDAQ: SPCX — an operating company with published financials, not an ETF. The historical “SPCX” ticker was a SPAC ETF; that is not what this listing is.
  • Limited history: 2026 IPO / listing (shares outstanding +117% YoY; current share class 8.25B vs 13.58B shares outstanding used in the market cap), no 5-year beta, no 200-day moving average, no useful own-history multiple range.
  • TTM net income and FCF are negative; consensus FY1 EPS is $0.01 (not meaningful) and FY1 FCF is −$56.57B. FY1 P/E and P/FCF are dropped. NTM P/E is almost entirely FY2 EPS ($2.66) and is used only where the peer group itself has a usable P/E set.
  • TTM EV/EBITDA (~161x vs mature defense comps at ~15x) is shown in the tables as a conservative floor but is excluded from each group's blended range. NTM sales are about 5x TTM sales, so capitalizing TTM EBITDA at steady-state prime or platform multiples is not a meaningful central estimate.
  • Satellite/comms is the widest group: ASTS and GSAT trade at extreme NTM EV/Sales; IRDM and VSAT are much cheaper. The median is therefore fragile. ASTS has negative earnings and EBITDA; several P/E and EV/EBITDA cells are empty, so the group leans on EV/Sales.
  • SATS could not be included (stockanalysis statistics/forecast pages returned 404; the SATS listing on that site resolves as Strive preferred, not a satellite operator).
  • Blend weights: 30% aerospace/defense (launch / government manufacturing analog, but mature-growth multiples understate the ramp), 40% satellite/comms (closest operating analog for Starlink, which is the main driver of the FY2 revenue step-up), 30% AI (strategic optionality; not current mix). Equal-weight of the three groups would be a reasonable alternative; both should be read as very wide ranges, not precise targets.
  • Analyst average target on the source page is $255.06 (40 analysts; low $70 / high $800), which sits well above the aerospace- and AI-group mids and closer to the satellite/comms mid. That is context, not an input to the multiples.

5-year own-multiple history: not available in the free sources used.

Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-11/SPCX.md

Analyst: Relative Valuation Analyst Company: Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) Price used: $143.09 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market) Shares: 13.58B basic shares outstanding (S&P GMI via stockanalysis; not a fully diluted count) Net cash (debt): $50.64B Computed EV: $1,892.52B (= price × shares − net cash; may differ slightly from the rounded published EV)

Method

  • Multiples are computed from the same source financials for the ticker and every peer (not the vendor's black-box "Forward PE / Forward PS", which is not always consistent with consensus FY1/FY2 EPS and sales).
  • NTM P/E and NTM EV/Sales use day-weighted NTM = w×FY1 + (1−w)×FY2, with w = days remaining to FY1 period end from 2026-11-11 ÷ 365.25. If FY2 is missing, FY1 is used and labeled as such.
  • EV/EBITDA is trailing-twelve-month; forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source.
  • P/FCF uses consensus FY1 FCF (FY2 FCF is gated). Dropped when FY1 FCF is ≤ 0 or the implied P/FCF exceeds 150x (FCF too small to capitalize).
  • P/E is dropped when NTM/FY1 EPS is ≤ 0.05 or the multiple exceeds 150x.
  • Low / mid / high = peer 25th percentile / median / 75th percentile (linear interpolation, inclusive), applied to the ticker's own NTM EPS, NTM sales, TTM EBITDA, or FY1 FCF. EV multiples are converted to equity as (implied EV + net cash) / basic shares.
  • A multiple enters the blended range only if at least three peers have a usable figure and the ticker's own denominator is meaningful.
  • 5-year average and range of the ticker's own multiples are not available from the provided free source (the stockanalysis "Financial Ratio History" section is present as a heading with no figures in the scrape).

What SPCX is

SPCX is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), listed on NASDAQ as SPCX. It is an operating company with a full statistics and forecast page (TTM revenue $32.04B, TTM EBITDA $11.74B, TTM net income −$3.43B, TTM FCF −$39.29B, net cash $50.64B, 13.58B shares outstanding, market cap $1.94T). It is not an ETF. Multiples can be computed, but they are fragile: 2026 IPO / listing (limited trading history, no 5-year beta), FY1 EPS essentially breakeven ($0.01), FY1 FCF deeply negative, and a very large consensus revenue step-up in FY2 ($48.90B → $180.67B). Treat every implied range below as illustrative, not a precise fair value.

Peer set

No close public operating peer. Three groups as requested: aerospace/defense (launch/government manufacturing), satellite/comms (Starlink analog), and AI/AI-infrastructure (strategic optionality). SATS statistics/forecast pages returned 404 (listing resolves as Strive preferred, not EchoStar); GSAT is used as the SATS/GSAT stand-in.

Aerospace/defense: LMT, NOC, RTX, GD, RKLB

Rationale: launch vehicles, government and manufacturing intensity. Mature primes (LMT, NOC, RTX, GD) plus RKLB as the only high-growth launch comp. Mature-prime multiples understate a 162% 3Y revenue CAGR; they are used as a conservative anchor.

PeerNTM P/ENTM EV/SalesEV/EBITDA (TTM)FY1 P/FCF
SPCX (subject)62.3x11.6x161.2xn/a
LMT18.3x1.8x15.6x18.0x
NOC18.3x2.0x12.5x23.5x
RTX25.0x2.9x17.7x29.5x
GD19.7x1.8x15.2x19.7x
RKLBn/a27.0xn/an/a

FY1 ends Dec 31, 2026 (w on FY1 = 0.137). Consensus FY1/FY2 non-GAAP EPS 0.01 / 2.66; NTM EPS 2.297. NTM sales $162.63B (FY1 $48.90B, FY2 $180.67B). TTM EBITDA $11.74B. Consensus FY1 FCF $-56.57B. Flags: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero) Peer cells marked n/a (and why):

  • RKLB NTM P/E: NTM P/E not meaningful (NTM/FY1 EPS 0.02)
  • RKLB EV/EBITDA (TTM): EV/EBITDA (TTM) n/a (TTM EBITDA <= 0)
  • RKLB FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
MultipleSPCX nowPeer 25th / median / 75th (n)Implied $/share low / mid / high
NTM P/E62.3x18.3x / 19.0x / 21.0x (4)$42.11 / $43.70 / $48.32
NTM EV/Sales11.6x1.8x / 2.0x / 2.9x (5)$25.07 / $27.20 / $38.29
EV/EBITDA (TTM)161.2x14.5x / 15.4x / 16.1x (4)$16.29 / $17.05 / $17.67 — not used in blend (shown but excluded from blend: TTM EBITDA is not representative given NTM sales ~5x TTM sales)
FY1 P/FCFn/a19.3x / 21.6x / 25.0x (4)not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful)

Implied range (Aerospace/defense): $33.59 / $35.45 / $43.30 (equal-weight average of 2 usable multiples (NTM P/E, NTM EV/Sales).)

Satellite/comms: ASTS, IRDM, VSAT, GSAT

Rationale: closest operating analog for Starlink. ASTS, IRDM, VSAT and GSAT (SATS page was 404). Several names are unprofitable or thinly covered; the group leans on EV/Sales and the median is sensitive to ASTS/GSAT.

PeerNTM P/ENTM EV/SalesEV/EBITDA (TTM)FY1 P/FCF
SPCX (subject)62.3x11.6x161.2xn/a
ASTSn/a27.6xn/an/a
IRDM32.1x7.0x17.7x16.6x
VSATn/a3.2x11.4x44.7x
GSAT149.9x33.1x135.3x130.1x

Peer cells marked n/a (and why):

  • ASTS NTM P/E: NTM P/E not meaningful (NTM/FY1 EPS -1.60)
  • VSAT NTM P/E: NTM P/E not meaningful (NTM/FY1 EPS -0.18)
  • ASTS EV/EBITDA (TTM): EV/EBITDA (TTM) n/a (TTM EBITDA <= 0)
  • ASTS FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
MultipleSPCX nowPeer 25th / median / 75th (n)Implied $/share low / mid / high
NTM P/E62.3x61.5x / 91.0x / 120.4x (2)$141.35 / $209.02 / $276.69 — not used in blend (too few peers with a usable multiple (n=2))
NTM EV/Sales11.6x6.1x / 17.3x / 29.0x (4)$76.49 / $211.46 / $351.08
EV/EBITDA (TTM)161.2x14.5x / 17.7x / 76.5x (3)$16.30 / $19.04 / $69.88 — not used in blend (shown but excluded from blend: TTM EBITDA is not representative given NTM sales ~5x TTM sales)
FY1 P/FCFn/a30.6x / 44.7x / 87.4x (3)not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful)

Implied range (Satellite/comms): $76.49 / $211.46 / $351.08 (equal-weight average of 1 usable multiple (NTM EV/Sales).)

AI: NVDA, PLTR, GOOG, MSFT

Rationale: AI / AI-infrastructure optionality named in the brief (NVDA, PLTR, GOOG, MSFT). These are not operational peers for launch or satellite services; they capture the market’s willingness to pay for scarce AI-linked growth, not current mix.

PeerNTM P/ENTM EV/SalesEV/EBITDA (TTM)FY1 P/FCF
SPCX (subject)62.3x11.6x161.2xn/a
NVDA11.7x6.4x20.1x21.5x
PLTR69.6x31.7x118.0x82.7x
GOOG18.8x5.5x18.3xn/a
MSFT24.7x9.5x19.6x121.1x

Peer cells marked n/a (and why):

  • GOOG FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
MultipleSPCX nowPeer 25th / median / 75th (n)Implied $/share low / mid / high
NTM P/E62.3x17.1x / 21.8x / 36.0x (4)$39.18 / $50.06 / $82.61
NTM EV/Sales11.6x6.2x / 8.0x / 15.0x (4)$77.94 / $98.96 / $183.77
EV/EBITDA (TTM)161.2x19.3x / 19.9x / 44.6x (4)$20.38 / $20.91 / $42.30 — not used in blend (shown but excluded from blend: TTM EBITDA is not representative given NTM sales ~5x TTM sales)
FY1 P/FCFn/a52.1x / 82.7x / 101.9x (3)not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful)

Implied range (AI): $58.56 / $74.51 / $133.19 (equal-weight average of 2 usable multiples (NTM P/E, NTM EV/Sales).)

Current multiples vs own history

5-year average and range: n/a — 2026 IPO / listing, no useful trading history, and the free source has no ratio history figures.

Blended range

Primary weights: 30% aerospace/defense, 40% satellite/comms, 30% AI. Satellite/comms is weighted slightly higher because Starlink is the main driver of the consensus FY2 revenue step-up; aerospace/defense is the manufacturing/launch analog but uses mature-growth multiples; AI is included for optionality but is not current mix.

Blended low / mid / high: $58.24 / $117.57 / $193.38 Vs close $143.09: mid is 17.8% below the close.

Equal-weight alternative (1/3 each group, for sensitivity): $56.21 / $107.14 / $175.86.

Adjustments and judgment

  • SPCX is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), NASDAQ: SPCX — an operating company with published financials, not an ETF. The historical “SPCX” ticker was a SPAC ETF; that is not what this listing is.
  • Limited history: 2026 IPO / listing (shares outstanding +117% YoY; current share class 8.25B vs 13.58B shares outstanding used in the market cap), no 5-year beta, no 200-day moving average, no useful own-history multiple range.
  • TTM net income and FCF are negative; consensus FY1 EPS is $0.01 (not meaningful) and FY1 FCF is −$56.57B. FY1 P/E and P/FCF are dropped. NTM P/E is almost entirely FY2 EPS ($2.66) and is used only where the peer group itself has a usable P/E set.
  • TTM EV/EBITDA (~161x vs mature defense comps at ~15x) is shown in the tables as a conservative floor but is excluded from each group's blended range. NTM sales are about 5x TTM sales, so capitalizing TTM EBITDA at steady-state prime or platform multiples is not a meaningful central estimate.
  • Satellite/comms is the widest group: ASTS and GSAT trade at extreme NTM EV/Sales; IRDM and VSAT are much cheaper. The median is therefore fragile. ASTS has negative earnings and EBITDA; several P/E and EV/EBITDA cells are empty, so the group leans on EV/Sales.
  • SATS could not be included (stockanalysis statistics/forecast pages returned 404; the SATS listing on that site resolves as Strive preferred, not a satellite operator).
  • Blend weights: 30% aerospace/defense (launch / government manufacturing analog, but mature-growth multiples understate the ramp), 40% satellite/comms (closest operating analog for Starlink, which is the main driver of the FY2 revenue step-up), 30% AI (strategic optionality; not current mix). Equal-weight of the three groups would be a reasonable alternative; both should be read as very wide ranges, not precise targets.
  • Analyst average target on the source page is $255.06 (40 analysts; low $70 / high $800), which sits well above the aerospace- and AI-group mids and closer to the satellite/comms mid. That is context, not an input to the multiples.

Data sources and as-of dates

  • Prices: regular-session close Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market), from stockanalysis.com pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence), cross-checked in the coordinator input files vs the Yahoo Finance chart API.
  • Fundamentals and consensus: stockanalysis.com statistics (stats last updated on the pages on Nov 11, 2026) and forecast (this ticker's forecast page last updated Nov 10, 2026) for SPCX and each peer. Forecast update dates differ by ticker.
  • Raw files: /workspace/fair-value/coordinator/2026-11-11/raw/ (fetched 2026-11-11 05:23 MST (America/Phoenix)). Official collector folder data/2026-11-11/ did not yet have ticker files when this run started; coordinator fallback input files were used.
  • 5-year multiple history: n/a (not in the free scrape).
  • Public web was used only to attempt WMT/COST for AMZN (stockanalysis Cloudflare 403; Yahoo quoteSummary unauthorized). No paid logins.
  • Peer forecast update dates:
    • SPCX: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
    • LMT: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 4, 2026
    • NOC: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Oct 30, 2026
    • RTX: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
    • GD: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
    • RKLB: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 11, 2026
    • ASTS: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
    • IRDM: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Jul 30, 2026
    • VSAT: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 9, 2026
    • GSAT: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Aug 18, 2026
    • NVDA: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
    • PLTR: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 5, 2026
    • GOOG: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Oct 30, 2026
    • MSFT: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 6, 2026
4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid
  1. DCF not meaningful → blended fair value = relative mid only.
    FV = $117.57 (report: $117.57)
5Margin of safety → callFair
  1. Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
    ($117.57 − $142.50) ÷ $117.57 = -21.2% (report: -21.2%)
  2. Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = -17.5%; price vs FV = +21.2%
  3. Rule (SPCX uses a wider 30% band: short history, wide ranges): Cheap if MoS ≥ 30% · Rich if price ≥ 30% above FV · otherwise Fair
    → Fair Low confidence
6Flags and notes3 flag(s)

Flags

⚑ Low confidence: 2026 listing, sat/comms mid rests almost entirely on NTM EV/Sales (ASTS/GSAT skew), FY2 revenue consensus step-up $48.9B → $180.7B.
⚑ Call moved Rich → Fair because the analyst's 30/40/30 blend and sat/comms group are higher than this morning's coordinator estimate; price is 21% above FV, inside the 30% band.
⚑ Pre-market −0.4% vs close (it was +3.0% at 7:24 AM ET).

Coordinator notes

  • Relative only: DCF not meaningful (TTM FCF −$39.3B, FY1 consensus FCF −$56.6B, no observed beta). DCF Analyst's mechanical output is negative and excluded.
  • Peer groups (low / mid / high, $/sh): aerospace/defense $33.59 / $35.45 / $43.30; satellite/comms $76.49 / $211.46 / $351.08; AI $58.56 / $74.51 / $133.19.
  • Blend weights checked in the analyst's file: 30% aero/defense, 40% sat/comms, 30% AI (sums to 100%; the earlier chat note listing 40% twice was a relay typo). Equal-thirds alternative for sensitivity: $56.21 / $107.14 / $175.86 (price would be 33% above that mid, just past the 30% band, i.e. Rich).
  • Per-share values use 13.58B shares (equals the 13.581B diluted/implied count; the 8.247B basic count was NOT used).

Source files: data/2026-11-11/SPCX.md dcf/2026-11-11-rerun/SPCX.md relative/2026-11-11/SPCX.md