# SPCX – SpaceX – DCF (2026-11-11)

DCF Analyst model, rerun by Fair Value Coordinator on today's data. Input file: `data/2026-11-11/SPCX.md`. Generated 2026-11-11 07:16 MST (Phoenix).

> **LOW CONFIDENCE / PROVISIONAL – DCF NOT MEANINGFUL AS A POINT ESTIMATE.** TTM FCF is deeply negative ($-39.3B before SBC, -137.4% margin after SBC), consensus FY1 FCF is $-56.6B, there is no observed beta and only ~5 quarters of public cash-flow history. A constant-margin DCF gives a negative equity value, which says nothing useful. Below: (1) the mechanical result for transparency, and (2) the year-1-to-5 FCF margin the market price implies. Use relative valuation for SPCX.

**Price used:** $143.09 (regular-session close Nov 10, 2026). Shares 13,581M (diluted/implied, Yahoo impliedSharesOutstanding per Data Collector 2026-11-11).

| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $-134.64 | -194% | 80.9% fading to 18.2% | -116.8% → -116.8% | 13.3% | 2.5% |
| Base | **$-508.50** | -455% | 145.6% fading to 31.1% | -137.4% → -137.4% | 12.3% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $-726.26 | -608% | 161.8% fading to 34.4% | -137.4% → -137.4% | 11.3% | 2.5% |

## WACC build
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 1.50 (NOT AVAILABLE (short history) - analyst placeholder 1.5, low confidence); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 12.5%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 98.0% / debt 2.0% (mkt cap $1,940.0B, debt $39.2B)
- WACC 12.3% → **12.3%**

## Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $32.0B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $15.8B / $-55.0B / $-39.3B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $4.7B (14.8% of rev; n/m of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Sep 30 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $-44.0B = -137.4% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026): $48.9B; FY2 $180.7B (FY2/FY1 269.5%); 3Y CAGR 161.8% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $-56.6B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 161.8% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 145.6% (90%) / 80.9% (50%) / 161.8% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $50.6B | Data Collector |
| Margin | Base/bull flat at TTM after-SBC margin; bear 85% of it | team default |

## Base-case 5-year FCF ($B)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 145.6% | 78.7 | -137.4% | -108.1 | -96.3 |
| 2 | 117.0% | 170.8 | -137.4% | -234.7 | -186.0 |
| 3 | 88.4% | 321.7 | -137.4% | -442.0 | -311.9 |
| 4 | 59.7% | 513.9 | -137.4% | -706.1 | -443.6 |
| 5 | 31.1% | 673.8 | -137.4% | -925.9 | -517.8 |

## Terminal value check (base)
- Gordon TV $-9,658.1B, PV $-5,401.1B; EV $-6,956.6B; TV share of EV n/m
- Implied exit multiple nanx year-5 FCF (current EV/FCF n/a)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $143.09: **37.4%** vs TTM -137.4%

## Sensitivity – base case $/share (WACC vs terminal g)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11.3% | $-550.71 | $-577.67 | $-607.87 |
| 11.8% | $-517.40 | $-541.19 | $-567.67 |
| 12.3% | $-487.40 | $-508.50 | $-531.87 |
| 12.8% | $-460.25 | $-479.07 | $-499.80 |
| 13.3% | $-435.57 | $-452.42 | $-470.91 |

## Sources
- - Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (`price`, `summaryDetail`, `defaultKeyStatistics`, `financialData`, `calendarEvents`, `earningsTrend`, `incomeStatementHistory`): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/SPCX — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET
- Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/SPCX — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spcx/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spcx/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 10, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spcx/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=SPCX — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
- TTM SBC: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spcx/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=trailing (fetched 2026-11-11 ~05:25 MST)

## Caveats
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).
- SPCX: placeholder beta 1.5 is an assumption, not data. Value is extremely sensitive to the long-run margin; the implied-margin line is the useful output.