# SPCX – Relative valuation (2026-11-11)

**Analyst:** Relative Valuation Analyst  
**Company:** Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX)  
**Price used:** $143.09 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market)  
**Shares:** 13.58B basic shares outstanding (S&P GMI via stockanalysis; not a fully diluted count)  
**Net cash (debt):** $50.64B  
**Computed EV:** $1,892.52B (= price × shares − net cash; may differ slightly from the rounded published EV)

## Method
- Multiples are computed from the same source financials for the ticker and every peer (not the vendor's black-box "Forward PE / Forward PS", which is not always consistent with consensus FY1/FY2 EPS and sales).
- **NTM P/E** and **NTM EV/Sales** use day-weighted NTM = w×FY1 + (1−w)×FY2, with w = days remaining to FY1 period end from 2026-11-11 ÷ 365.25. If FY2 is missing, FY1 is used and labeled as such.
- **EV/EBITDA** is trailing-twelve-month; forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source.
- **P/FCF** uses consensus FY1 FCF (FY2 FCF is gated). Dropped when FY1 FCF is ≤ 0 or the implied P/FCF exceeds 150x (FCF too small to capitalize).
- **P/E** is dropped when NTM/FY1 EPS is ≤ 0.05 or the multiple exceeds 150x.
- Low / mid / high = peer 25th percentile / median / 75th percentile (linear interpolation, inclusive), applied to the ticker's own NTM EPS, NTM sales, TTM EBITDA, or FY1 FCF. EV multiples are converted to equity as (implied EV + net cash) / basic shares.
- A multiple enters the blended range only if at least three peers have a usable figure and the ticker's own denominator is meaningful.
- 5-year average and range of the ticker's own multiples are **not available** from the provided free source (the stockanalysis "Financial Ratio History" section is present as a heading with no figures in the scrape).

## What SPCX is
SPCX is **Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX)**, listed on NASDAQ as SPCX. It is an operating company with a full statistics and forecast page (TTM revenue $32.04B, TTM EBITDA $11.74B, TTM net income −$3.43B, TTM FCF −$39.29B, net cash $50.64B, 13.58B shares outstanding, market cap $1.94T). It is **not** an ETF. Multiples can be computed, but they are fragile: 2026 IPO / listing (limited trading history, no 5-year beta), FY1 EPS essentially breakeven ($0.01), FY1 FCF deeply negative, and a very large consensus revenue step-up in FY2 ($48.90B → $180.67B). Treat every implied range below as illustrative, not a precise fair value.

## Peer set
No close public operating peer. Three groups as requested: aerospace/defense (launch/government manufacturing), satellite/comms (Starlink analog), and AI/AI-infrastructure (strategic optionality). SATS statistics/forecast pages returned 404 (listing resolves as Strive preferred, not EchoStar); GSAT is used as the SATS/GSAT stand-in.

### Aerospace/defense: LMT, NOC, RTX, GD, RKLB
Rationale: launch vehicles, government and manufacturing intensity. Mature primes (LMT, NOC, RTX, GD) plus RKLB as the only high-growth launch comp. Mature-prime multiples understate a 162% 3Y revenue CAGR; they are used as a conservative anchor.

| Peer | NTM P/E | NTM EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | FY1 P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **SPCX (subject)** | 62.3x | 11.6x | 161.2x | n/a |
| LMT | 18.3x | 1.8x | 15.6x | 18.0x |
| NOC | 18.3x | 2.0x | 12.5x | 23.5x |
| RTX | 25.0x | 2.9x | 17.7x | 29.5x |
| GD | 19.7x | 1.8x | 15.2x | 19.7x |
| RKLB | n/a | 27.0x | n/a | n/a |

FY1 ends Dec 31, 2026 (w on FY1 = 0.137). Consensus FY1/FY2 non-GAAP EPS 0.01 / 2.66; NTM EPS 2.297. NTM sales $162.63B (FY1 $48.90B, FY2 $180.67B). TTM EBITDA $11.74B. Consensus FY1 FCF $-56.57B. Flags: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
Peer cells marked n/a (and why):
- RKLB NTM P/E: NTM P/E not meaningful (NTM/FY1 EPS 0.02)
- RKLB EV/EBITDA (TTM): EV/EBITDA (TTM) n/a (TTM EBITDA <= 0)
- RKLB FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)

| Multiple | SPCX now | Peer 25th / median / 75th (n) | Implied $/share low / mid / high |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTM P/E | 62.3x | 18.3x / 19.0x / 21.0x (4) | $42.11 / $43.70 / $48.32 |
| NTM EV/Sales | 11.6x | 1.8x / 2.0x / 2.9x (5) | $25.07 / $27.20 / $38.29 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 161.2x | 14.5x / 15.4x / 16.1x (4) | $16.29 / $17.05 / $17.67 — not used in blend (shown but excluded from blend: TTM EBITDA is not representative given NTM sales ~5x TTM sales) |
| FY1 P/FCF | n/a | 19.3x / 21.6x / 25.0x (4) | not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful) |

**Implied range (Aerospace/defense): $33.59 / $35.45 / $43.30** (equal-weight average of 2 usable multiples (NTM P/E, NTM EV/Sales).)

### Satellite/comms: ASTS, IRDM, VSAT, GSAT
Rationale: closest operating analog for Starlink. ASTS, IRDM, VSAT and GSAT (SATS page was 404). Several names are unprofitable or thinly covered; the group leans on EV/Sales and the median is sensitive to ASTS/GSAT.

| Peer | NTM P/E | NTM EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | FY1 P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **SPCX (subject)** | 62.3x | 11.6x | 161.2x | n/a |
| ASTS | n/a | 27.6x | n/a | n/a |
| IRDM | 32.1x | 7.0x | 17.7x | 16.6x |
| VSAT | n/a | 3.2x | 11.4x | 44.7x |
| GSAT | 149.9x | 33.1x | 135.3x | 130.1x |

Peer cells marked n/a (and why):
- ASTS NTM P/E: NTM P/E not meaningful (NTM/FY1 EPS -1.60)
- VSAT NTM P/E: NTM P/E not meaningful (NTM/FY1 EPS -0.18)
- ASTS EV/EBITDA (TTM): EV/EBITDA (TTM) n/a (TTM EBITDA <= 0)
- ASTS FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)

| Multiple | SPCX now | Peer 25th / median / 75th (n) | Implied $/share low / mid / high |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTM P/E | 62.3x | 61.5x / 91.0x / 120.4x (2) | $141.35 / $209.02 / $276.69 — not used in blend (too few peers with a usable multiple (n=2)) |
| NTM EV/Sales | 11.6x | 6.1x / 17.3x / 29.0x (4) | $76.49 / $211.46 / $351.08 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 161.2x | 14.5x / 17.7x / 76.5x (3) | $16.30 / $19.04 / $69.88 — not used in blend (shown but excluded from blend: TTM EBITDA is not representative given NTM sales ~5x TTM sales) |
| FY1 P/FCF | n/a | 30.6x / 44.7x / 87.4x (3) | not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful) |

**Implied range (Satellite/comms): $76.49 / $211.46 / $351.08** (equal-weight average of 1 usable multiple (NTM EV/Sales).)

### AI: NVDA, PLTR, GOOG, MSFT
Rationale: AI / AI-infrastructure optionality named in the brief (NVDA, PLTR, GOOG, MSFT). These are not operational peers for launch or satellite services; they capture the market’s willingness to pay for scarce AI-linked growth, not current mix.

| Peer | NTM P/E | NTM EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | FY1 P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| **SPCX (subject)** | 62.3x | 11.6x | 161.2x | n/a |
| NVDA | 11.7x | 6.4x | 20.1x | 21.5x |
| PLTR | 69.6x | 31.7x | 118.0x | 82.7x |
| GOOG | 18.8x | 5.5x | 18.3x | n/a |
| MSFT | 24.7x | 9.5x | 19.6x | 121.1x |

Peer cells marked n/a (and why):
- GOOG FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)

| Multiple | SPCX now | Peer 25th / median / 75th (n) | Implied $/share low / mid / high |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTM P/E | 62.3x | 17.1x / 21.8x / 36.0x (4) | $39.18 / $50.06 / $82.61 |
| NTM EV/Sales | 11.6x | 6.2x / 8.0x / 15.0x (4) | $77.94 / $98.96 / $183.77 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 161.2x | 19.3x / 19.9x / 44.6x (4) | $20.38 / $20.91 / $42.30 — not used in blend (shown but excluded from blend: TTM EBITDA is not representative given NTM sales ~5x TTM sales) |
| FY1 P/FCF | n/a | 52.1x / 82.7x / 101.9x (3) | not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful) |

**Implied range (AI): $58.56 / $74.51 / $133.19** (equal-weight average of 2 usable multiples (NTM P/E, NTM EV/Sales).)

## Current multiples vs own history
5-year average and range: **n/a** — 2026 IPO / listing, no useful trading history, and the free source has no ratio history figures.

## Blended range
Primary weights: **30% aerospace/defense, 40% satellite/comms, 30% AI**. Satellite/comms is weighted slightly higher because Starlink is the main driver of the consensus FY2 revenue step-up; aerospace/defense is the manufacturing/launch analog but uses mature-growth multiples; AI is included for optionality but is not current mix.

**Blended low / mid / high: $58.24 / $117.57 / $193.38**  
Vs close $143.09: mid is 17.8% below the close.

Equal-weight alternative (1/3 each group, for sensitivity): $56.21 / $107.14 / $175.86.

## Adjustments and judgment
- SPCX is Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX), NASDAQ: SPCX — an operating company with published financials, not an ETF. The historical “SPCX” ticker was a SPAC ETF; that is not what this listing is.
- Limited history: 2026 IPO / listing (shares outstanding +117% YoY; current share class 8.25B vs 13.58B shares outstanding used in the market cap), no 5-year beta, no 200-day moving average, no useful own-history multiple range.
- TTM net income and FCF are negative; consensus FY1 EPS is $0.01 (not meaningful) and FY1 FCF is −$56.57B. FY1 P/E and P/FCF are dropped. NTM P/E is almost entirely FY2 EPS ($2.66) and is used only where the peer group itself has a usable P/E set.
- TTM EV/EBITDA (~161x vs mature defense comps at ~15x) is shown in the tables as a conservative floor but is excluded from each group's blended range. NTM sales are about 5x TTM sales, so capitalizing TTM EBITDA at steady-state prime or platform multiples is not a meaningful central estimate.
- Satellite/comms is the widest group: ASTS and GSAT trade at extreme NTM EV/Sales; IRDM and VSAT are much cheaper. The median is therefore fragile. ASTS has negative earnings and EBITDA; several P/E and EV/EBITDA cells are empty, so the group leans on EV/Sales.
- SATS could not be included (stockanalysis statistics/forecast pages returned 404; the SATS listing on that site resolves as Strive preferred, not a satellite operator).
- Blend weights: 30% aerospace/defense (launch / government manufacturing analog, but mature-growth multiples understate the ramp), 40% satellite/comms (closest operating analog for Starlink, which is the main driver of the FY2 revenue step-up), 30% AI (strategic optionality; not current mix). Equal-weight of the three groups would be a reasonable alternative; both should be read as very wide ranges, not precise targets.
- Analyst average target on the source page is $255.06 (40 analysts; low $70 / high $800), which sits well above the aerospace- and AI-group mids and closer to the satellite/comms mid. That is context, not an input to the multiples.

## Data sources and as-of dates
- Prices: regular-session close Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market), from stockanalysis.com pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence), cross-checked in the coordinator input files vs the Yahoo Finance chart API.
- Fundamentals and consensus: stockanalysis.com statistics (stats last updated on the pages on Nov 11, 2026) and forecast (this ticker's forecast page last updated Nov 10, 2026) for SPCX and each peer. Forecast update dates differ by ticker.
- Raw files: `/workspace/fair-value/coordinator/2026-11-11/raw/` (fetched 2026-11-11 05:23 MST (America/Phoenix)). Official collector folder `data/2026-11-11/` did not yet have ticker files when this run started; coordinator fallback input files were used.
- 5-year multiple history: n/a (not in the free scrape).
- Public web was used only to attempt WMT/COST for AMZN (stockanalysis Cloudflare 403; Yahoo quoteSummary unauthorized). No paid logins.
- Peer forecast update dates:
  - SPCX: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
  - LMT: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 4, 2026
  - NOC: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Oct 30, 2026
  - RTX: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
  - GD: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
  - RKLB: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 11, 2026
  - ASTS: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
  - IRDM: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Jul 30, 2026
  - VSAT: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 9, 2026
  - GSAT: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Aug 18, 2026
  - NVDA: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 10, 2026
  - PLTR: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 5, 2026
  - GOOG: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Oct 30, 2026
  - MSFT: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 6, 2026