← 2026-11-11 overview · ‹ GOOG · CRM ›
AMZN Amazon Fair Low confidence
Fair-value build for 2026-11-11. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.
DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV
DCF n/m
$268.49$347.33
1 · Price
$272.71
›2 · DCF base
n/m
›3 · Relative mid
$291.12
›4 · Blended FV
$291.12
›5 · Margin of safety → call
+6.3% → Fair
1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps
Price used for the call
$272.71
$272.71 @9:16 (close $270.87)
Shares (diluted / implied)
10.813B
Net cash (debt)
-$190.62B
Beta (5Y)
1.50
Market cap
$2.93T
TTM revenue
$797.46B
Collected by Financial Data Collector. Public sources only. Figures fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET. Every figure is sourced below; anything not found is marked n/a (not found) — no numbers were invented.
Not available from the public sources used:
Next (future) confirmed earnings date
Forward EBITDA consensus: n/a (not found) on the free stockanalysis and Yahoo modules used.
Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-11/AMZN.md
Collected by Financial Data Collector. Public sources only. Figures fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET. Every figure is sourced below; anything not found is marked n/a (not found) — no numbers were invented.
Price and trading
| Field | Value | Source / as-of |
|---|---|---|
| Last regular-session close | $270.87 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM ET (+3.94, +1.48% vs previous close $266.93). Exchange: NasdaqGS; quote type: EQUITY. | Yahoo Finance quoteSummary regularMarketPrice / regularMarketTime; cross-checked vs stockanalysis close $270.87 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST and Yahoo chart API |
| Pre-market | $271.04 (+0.17, +0.06%) as of Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET (Yahoo Finance quoteSummary preMarket* vs regular-session close $270.87). Cross-check stockanalysis pre-market: $270.66 (-0.21, -0.08%) at Nov 11, 2026, 6:30 AM EST. | Yahoo Finance quoteSummary, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET |
| Market cap | $2.93T | Yahoo price.marketCap (stockanalysis: $2.93T) |
| Enterprise value | stockanalysis EV: $3.12T; Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.enterpriseValue: $3.12T | See cash-definition note |
Shares, cash, debt, beta
| Field | Value | Source / as-of |
|---|---|---|
| Shares outstanding (basic) | 10.813B | Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.sharesOutstanding (stockanalysis shares outstanding: 10.810B; stats updated Nov 11, 2026) |
| Diluted / implied shares | 10.813B | Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.impliedSharesOutstanding. This is the share count implied by market cap / last price (10.813B) and is the figure to use for per-share DCF / relative work. |
| Float | 9.838B | Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.floatShares |
| Cash | $114.23B (Cash & Cash Equivalents) | Primary: stockanalysis, stats updated Nov 11, 2026; Yahoo totalCash $114.23B |
| Total debt | $304.84B | stockanalysis / Yahoo financialData.totalDebt (Yahoo: $304.84B) |
| Net cash (debt) | -$190.62B | Negative = net debt. stockanalysis definition uses the cash line above minus total debt. |
| Beta (5Y) | 1.50 | Yahoo defaultKeyStatistics.beta 1.50; stockanalysis Beta (5Y) 1.50 |
Cash / debt detail:
- stockanalysis “Cash & Cash Equivalents”: $114.23B (stats updated Nov 11, 2026)
- Yahoo Finance
financialData.totalCash: $114.23B (typically cash & short-term investments; may be narrower than SA’s cash + marketable securities) - stockanalysis total debt: $304.84B
- Yahoo
financialData.totalDebt: $304.84B (agrees with stockanalysis) - stockanalysis net cash (debt): -$190.62B → net debt $190.62B [consistent with SA EV vs market cap]
- Yahoo totalCash − totalDebt: -$190.61B → net debt $190.61B (may differ from SA if cash definitions differ)
TTM financials
| Field | Value | Source / as-of |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $797.46B | stockanalysis Income Statement (stats updated Nov 11, 2026); Yahoo financialData.totalRevenue $797.46B |
| TTM EBITDA | $183.72B | stockanalysis; Yahoo financialData.ebitda $183.72B |
| TTM net income | $134.78B | stockanalysis; Yahoo netIncomeToCommon $134.78B |
| TTM EPS (GAAP) | 12.37 | stockanalysis; Yahoo trailingEps 12.37 |
| TTM operating cash flow | $168.30B | stockanalysis; Yahoo operatingCashflow $168.30B |
| TTM capex | -$215.19B | stockanalysis (sign is cash outflow, negative) |
| TTM D&A | $79.35B | stockanalysis |
| TTM free cash flow (OCF − capex) | -$46.89B | stockanalysis |
| Yahoo / levered FCF (do not mix with the line above) | -$34.73B | Yahoo financialData.freeCashflow |
| TTM operating margin | 13.1% | stockanalysis |
| YoY revenue growth (latest reported quarter / Yahoo) | 12.1% | Yahoo financialData.revenueGrowth |
| YoY earnings growth (Yahoo) | -3.1% | Yahoo financialData.earningsGrowth |
stockanalysis TTM FCF (OCF − capex): -$46.89B (OCF $168.30B + capex -$215.19B = -$46.89B). Yahoo financialData.freeCashflow: -$34.73B — this often matches stockanalysis levered FCF, not OCF−capex. Use OCF−capex for a standard FCF DCF unless you explicitly want levered FCF.
Recent historical annual figures
Fiscal year calendar: January - December. Figures in USD from stockanalysis.com financials / cash-flow pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence; source pages fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)). Values originally displayed in millions.
| Period | Revenue | Operating income | EBITDA (OpInc + D&A, approx.) | Net income | EPS (GAAP) | OCF | Capex | FCF (OCF − capex) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2025 | $716.92B | $79.97B | $145.73B | $77.67B | 7.17 | $139.51B | -$131.82B | $7.70B |
| FY 2024 | $637.96B | $68.59B | $121.39B | $59.25B | 5.53 | $115.88B | -$83.00B | $32.88B |
| FY 2023 | $574.78B | $36.85B | $85.52B | $30.43B | 2.90 | $84.95B | -$52.73B | $32.22B |
| FY 2022 | $513.98B | $13.35B | $55.27B | -$2.72B | -0.27 | $46.75B | -$63.65B | -$16.89B |
| FY 2021 | $469.82B | $24.88B | $59.31B | $33.36B | 3.24 | $46.33B | -$61.05B | -$14.73B |
Note: Annual EBITDA is not published as a separate line on the free income-statement page, so the OpInc + D&A figure is an approximation (does not add other non-cash items). TTM EBITDA above is the source-reported figure.
Consensus estimates and growth
| Field | Value | Source / as-of |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026) | $829.00B | stockanalysis forecast, updated Nov 6, 2026; FY0 / last year on that page $716.92B → FY1 growth 15.6% |
| Consensus revenue FY2 | $958.65B | stockanalysis forecast, updated Nov 6, 2026; FY1→FY2 growth 15.6% |
| Consensus EPS FY1 (typically non-GAAP on this source) | 10.76 | stockanalysis forecast |
| Consensus EPS FY2 | 10.90 | stockanalysis forecast |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | -$38.90B | stockanalysis forecast (FCF column, last period); prior-year column on that table $11.19B |
| Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR) | 15.9% | stockanalysis statistics |
| EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR) | 25.0% | stockanalysis statistics |
| Analyst average price target | $326.99 (61 analysts on stockanalysis; Yahoo targetMeanPrice $326.99 from 59 opinions) | stockanalysis / Yahoo, forecast updated Nov 6, 2026 |
Yahoo Finance earningsTrend (cross-check; periods as labeled by Yahoo):
| Yahoo period | End date | Consensus revenue | Consensus EPS | # analysts (EPS) | Growth (Yahoo) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current quarter (0q) | 2026-12-31 | $244.84B (low $240.00B, high $247.61B) | 2.40 (low 2.13, high 2.67) | 43 | 27.8% |
| Next quarter (+1q) | 2027-03-31 | $210.25B (low $202.00B, high $230.22B) | 2.30 (low 1.98, high 2.52) | 29 | 47.9% |
| Current FY (0y) | 2026-12-31 | $829.03B (low $824.24B, high $832.81B) | 12.80 (low 12.04, high 13.08) | 53 | 33.9% |
| Next FY (+1y) | 2027-12-31 | $959.65B (low $902.08B, high $984.05B) | 10.67 (low 9.03, high 13.49) | 57 | 13.6% |
Caution: Yahoo’s “forward P/E” and forwardEps sometimes correspond to FY2 / a later year, not FY1. stockanalysis “Forward PE” is generally price / FY1 consensus EPS. Do not mix them. Also, for names that just reported, Yahoo’s 0q/0y rows can lag the print.
Current multiples
Primary set is stockanalysis (S&P GMI), which is internally consistent with that source’s price, market cap, EV, and TTM/FY1 figures (stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Nov 6, 2026). Computed cross-checks use Yahoo last close $270.87 and Yahoo market cap $2.93T.
| Multiple | stockanalysis | Computed cross-check | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| P/E TTM | 21.89x | 21.90x (close / TTM GAAP EPS 12.37); Yahoo trailing P/E 21.90x | GAAP trailing |
| Forward P/E (FY1 EPS 10.76) | 27.39x | 25.17x | Preferred forward multiple |
| Yahoo stated forward P/E | 24.84x | uses Yahoo forwardEps 10.90 | Often FY2/NTM, not FY1 |
| P/S TTM | 3.67x | 3.67x | |
| Forward P/S (FY1 revenue) | 3.18x | 3.53x | |
| P/FCF TTM (OCF−capex) | n/a (not found) | n/a (not found) | Blank/n/a if FCF ≤ 0 |
| Forward P/FCF (FY1 FCF) | n/a (not a labeled SA field) | n/a (not found) | market cap / FY1 consensus FCF |
| EV/Sales TTM | 3.91x | 3.91x using SA EV $3.12T | |
| EV/EBITDA TTM | 16.98x | 16.98x | Forward EBITDA consensus was not on these free pages |
| EV/FCF TTM | n/a (not found) | n/a (not found) | Blank/n/a if FCF ≤ 0 |
Earnings date
stockanalysis: last: Thursday, October 29, 2026 after market close (stats updated Nov 11, 2026); Yahoo Finance calendarEvents: 2026-10-29 (Yahoo: not marked as estimate) — this date is in the past as of Nov 11, 2026; Yahoo consensus for that report: EPS 2.49 (low 2.36, high 2.80); revenue $244.84B (low $240.00B, high $247.61B)
Notable recent news
Headlines from Yahoo Finance news search, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET. These are the source’s recent items (not a complete news file) and have not been independently verified beyond the headline list.
- Nov 11, 2026, 7:15 AM ET — 24/7 Wall St.: Why Alphabet and Amazon Will Always Need Nvidia
- Nov 11, 2026, 6:55 AM ET — GlobeNewswire: YieldMax® ETFs Announces Weekly Distributions for Group 2 ETFs
- Nov 11, 2026, 6:14 AM ET — GuruFocus.com: Microsoft Stock Falls as Anthropic Takes Aim at Office Work With New Claude Tools
- Nov 11, 2026, 6:04 AM ET — GuruFocus.com: What ProShares Ultra S&P500 2x Shares (SSO) Sold: Apple Leads on Monday
- Nov 11, 2026, 6:03 AM ET — GuruFocus.com: Proshares Trust (TQQQ) Buys $70.7 Million More Apple on Nov. 9
- Nov 11, 2026, 6:03 AM ET — GuruFocus.com: State Street SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 (SPYM) Buys $75.6 Million More Apple on Monday
Missing / not available from public sources used
Next (future) confirmed earnings date
Forward EBITDA consensus: n/a (not found) on the free stockanalysis and Yahoo modules used.
Sources
- Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (
price,summaryDetail,defaultKeyStatistics,financialData,calendarEvents,earningsTrend,incomeStatementHistory): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/AMZN — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET - Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/AMZN — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 6, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=AMZN — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity
DCF not meaningful for AMZN on 2026-11-11, so it is excluded and fair value is relative-only. PROVISIONAL: TTM FCF depressed/negative from capex step-up; margin ramps to pre-surge normalized level (judgment).
Mechanical DCF output, shown for transparency (excluded from fair value)
WACC build-up via CAPM
- Cost of equity = risk-free + β × ERP
Ke = 10Y UST 5.0% + 1.50 × 5.0% = 12.5%Beta note: 5Y observed (Data Collector) - Cost of debt (assumption: 10Y + 1.0%) = 6.0% pre-tax → 4.7% after 21% tax
- Market-value weights: equity 90.6% / debt 9.4%
- WACC = 90.6% × 12.5% + 9.4% × 4.7% = 11.7%
WACC lines exactly as in the DCF file
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 1.50 (5Y observed (Data Collector)); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 12.5%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 90.6% / debt 9.4% (mkt cap $2,930.0B, debt $304.8B)
- WACC 11.7% → 11.7%
SBC treatment
TTM SBC: $19.9B (2.5% of rev; n/m of FCF). Starting FCF after SBC (OCF − capex − SBC): $-66.8B = -8.4% margin.
Revenue and FCF projections (base case)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14.1% | 909.7 | -8.4% | -76.2 | -68.2 |
| 2 | 11.8% | 1,016.7 | -5.6% | -57.1 | -45.7 |
| 3 | 9.4% | 1,112.7 | -2.9% | -31.8 | -22.8 |
| 4 | 7.1% | 1,192.1 | -0.1% | -1.2 | -0.8 |
| 5 | 4.8% | 1,249.5 | 2.7% | 33.2 | 19.1 |
Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)
- Gordon TV $368.0B, PV $211.2B; EV $92.8B; TV share of EV 227.5% ⚠ above 75%
- Implied exit multiple 11.1x year-5 FCF (current EV/FCF n/a)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $270.87: 26.3% vs TTM -8.4%
Enterprise value → equity → per share
| PV of 5 years of FCF (computed here: EV − PV of TV) | $-118.4B |
| + PV of terminal value | $211.2B |
| = Enterprise value (file) | $92.8B |
| + Net cash (debt) (file; negative = net debt) | -$190.6B |
| = Equity value (computed here) | -$97.8B |
| ÷ Diluted / implied shares (file) | 10,813M |
| = Value per share (computed here from rounded file values) | -$9.04 vs file base -$9.04 |
Reverse-DCF check
Price implies an after-SBC FCF margin of 26.3% vs TTM -8.4% (DCF summary.json).
Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.7% | $-7.20 | $-5.78 | $-4.18 |
| 11.2% | $-8.75 | $-7.51 | $-6.13 |
| 11.7% | $-10.13 | $-9.04 | $-7.83 |
| 12.2% | $-11.37 | $-10.40 | $-9.32 |
| 12.7% | $-12.47 | $-11.60 | $-10.65 |
Bear / base / bull scenarios
| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $-18.04 | -107% | 7.8% fading to 3.6% | -8.4% → 2.0% | 12.7% | 2.5% |
| Base | $-9.04 | -103% | 14.1% fading to 4.8% | -8.4% → 2.7% | 11.7% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $-4.99 | -102% | 15.6% fading to 5.1% | -8.4% → 2.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% |
Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $797.5B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $168.3B / $-215.2B / $-46.9B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $19.9B (2.5% of rev; n/m of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Sep 30 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $-66.8B = -8.4% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026): $829.0B; FY2 $958.6B (FY2/FY1 15.6%); 3Y CAGR 15.9% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $-38.9B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 15.6% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 14.1% (90%) / 7.8% (50%) / 15.6% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $-190.6B | Data Collector |
| Normalized margin (yr5 target) | 2.7% after SBC (bear 75% of it) | TTM to Dec 31 2024 FCF margin 5.15% (before the 2025-26 capex step-up) minus current SBC/rev |
DCF caveats:
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).
- Base value ≤ 0: TTM-anchored FCF after SBC is negative; treat as not meaningful, see implied margin.
Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-11-rerun/AMZN.md
DCF Analyst model, rerun by Fair Value Coordinator on today's data. Input file: data/2026-11-11/AMZN.md. Generated 2026-11-11 07:16 MST (Phoenix).
PROVISIONAL: TTM FCF depressed/negative from capex step-up; margin ramps to pre-surge normalized level (judgment).
Price used: $270.87 (regular-session close Nov 10, 2026). Shares 10,813M (diluted/implied, Yahoo impliedSharesOutstanding per Data Collector 2026-11-11).
| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $-18.04 | -107% | 7.8% fading to 3.6% | -8.4% → 2.0% | 12.7% | 2.5% |
| Base | $-9.04 | -103% | 14.1% fading to 4.8% | -8.4% → 2.7% | 11.7% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $-4.99 | -102% | 15.6% fading to 5.1% | -8.4% → 2.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% |
WACC build
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 1.50 (5Y observed (Data Collector)); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 12.5%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 90.6% / debt 9.4% (mkt cap $2,930.0B, debt $304.8B)
- WACC 11.7% → 11.7%
Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $797.5B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $168.3B / $-215.2B / $-46.9B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $19.9B (2.5% of rev; n/m of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Sep 30 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $-66.8B = -8.4% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026): $829.0B; FY2 $958.6B (FY2/FY1 15.6%); 3Y CAGR 15.9% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $-38.9B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 15.6% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 14.1% (90%) / 7.8% (50%) / 15.6% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $-190.6B | Data Collector |
| Normalized margin (yr5 target) | 2.7% after SBC (bear 75% of it) | TTM to Dec 31 2024 FCF margin 5.15% (before the 2025-26 capex step-up) minus current SBC/rev |
Base-case 5-year FCF ($B)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14.1% | 909.7 | -8.4% | -76.2 | -68.2 |
| 2 | 11.8% | 1,016.7 | -5.6% | -57.1 | -45.7 |
| 3 | 9.4% | 1,112.7 | -2.9% | -31.8 | -22.8 |
| 4 | 7.1% | 1,192.1 | -0.1% | -1.2 | -0.8 |
| 5 | 4.8% | 1,249.5 | 2.7% | 33.2 | 19.1 |
Terminal value check (base)
- Gordon TV $368.0B, PV $211.2B; EV $92.8B; TV share of EV 227.5% ⚠ above 75%
- Implied exit multiple 11.1x year-5 FCF (current EV/FCF n/a)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $270.87: 26.3% vs TTM -8.4%
Sensitivity – base case $/share (WACC vs terminal g)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.7% | $-7.20 | $-5.78 | $-4.18 |
| 11.2% | $-8.75 | $-7.51 | $-6.13 |
| 11.7% | $-10.13 | $-9.04 | $-7.83 |
| 12.2% | $-11.37 | $-10.40 | $-9.32 |
| 12.7% | $-12.47 | $-11.60 | $-10.65 |
Sources
- Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (
price,summaryDetail,defaultKeyStatistics,financialData,calendarEvents,earningsTrend,incomeStatementHistory): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/AMZN — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET - Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/AMZN — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 6, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=AMZN — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
- TTM SBC: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=trailing (fetched 2026-11-11 ~05:25 MST)
Caveats
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).
- Base value ≤ 0: TTM-anchored FCF after SBC is negative; treat as not meaningful, see implied margin.
3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights
Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.
Low (peer 25th pct)
$277.02
Mid (peer median)
$291.12
High (peer 75th pct)
$343.11
Price used: $270.87 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market) · Shares: 10.81B basic shares outstanding (S&P GMI via stockanalysis; not a fully diluted count)
How the multiples combine: weights NTM P/E 40%, NTM EV/Sales 20%, EV/EBITDA (TTM) 40%.
Each multiple: peer 25th / median / 75th → implied $/share
| Multiple | AMZN now | Peer 25th / median / 75th (n) | Implied $/share low / mid / high |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTM P/E | 24.9x | 18.6x / 18.8x / 21.8x (3) | $202.84 / $205.06 / $237.13 |
| NTM EV/Sales | 3.3x | 5.5x / 5.5x / 7.5x (3) | $459.52 / $460.19 / $633.26 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 17.0x | 16.3x / 18.3x / 18.9x (3) | $259.96 / $292.64 / $304.03 |
| FY1 P/FCF | n/a | 121.1x / 121.1x / 121.1x (1) | not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful) |
Peer set and multiples
Mix of retail and AWS. Suggested retail comps WMT and COST are not in the provided raw files and could not be fetched (Cloudflare 403 / Yahoo unauthorized), so the set is the available platform/cloud names (GOOG, MSFT, META). That mix is too software-heavy for Amazon’s revenue base; EV/Sales is therefore down-weighted in the blend.
| Peer | NTM P/E | NTM EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | FY1 P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN (subject) | 24.9x | 3.3x | 17.0x | n/a |
| GOOG | 18.8x | 5.5x | 18.3x | n/a |
| MSFT | 24.7x | 9.5x | 19.6x | 121.1x |
| META | 18.4x | 5.5x | 14.4x | n/a |
FY1 ends Dec 31, 2026 (w on FY1 = 0.137). Consensus FY1/FY2 non-GAAP EPS 10.76 / 10.9; NTM EPS 10.881. NTM sales $940.90B (FY1 $829.00B, FY2 $958.65B). TTM EBITDA $183.72B. Consensus FY1 FCF $-38.90B. Flags: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
Peer cells marked n/a (and why):
- GOOG FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
- META FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
Method notes (analyst)
- Multiples are computed from the same source financials for the ticker and every peer (not the vendor's black-box "Forward PE / Forward PS", which is not always consistent with consensus FY1/FY2 EPS and sales).
- NTM P/E and NTM EV/Sales use day-weighted NTM = w×FY1 + (1−w)×FY2, with w = days remaining to FY1 period end from 2026-11-11 ÷ 365.25. If FY2 is missing, FY1 is used and labeled as such.
- EV/EBITDA is trailing-twelve-month; forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source.
- P/FCF uses consensus FY1 FCF (FY2 FCF is gated). Dropped when FY1 FCF is ≤ 0 or the implied P/FCF exceeds 150x (FCF too small to capitalize).
- P/E is dropped when NTM/FY1 EPS is ≤ 0.05 or the multiple exceeds 150x.
- Low / mid / high = peer 25th percentile / median / 75th percentile (linear interpolation, inclusive), applied to the ticker's own NTM EPS, NTM sales, TTM EBITDA, or FY1 FCF. EV multiples are converted to equity as (implied EV + net cash) / basic shares.
- A multiple enters the blended range only if at least three peers have a usable figure and the ticker's own denominator is meaningful.
- 5-year average and range of the ticker's own multiples are not available from the provided free source (the stockanalysis "Financial Ratio History" section is present as a heading with no figures in the scrape).
Adjustments and judgment
- FY1 and TTM FCF are negative, so P/FCF is not used.
- The available peers are all high-margin platforms (GOOG, MSFT, META). WMT and COST — the retail comps named in the brief — could not be loaded (not in the provided raw files; public fetches were blocked). Applying those platform EV/Sales multiples to Amazon’s largely retail revenue base would overstate value, so NTM EV/Sales is down-weighted to 20% of the blend (40% NTM P/E, 40% TTM EV/EBITDA, 20% NTM EV/Sales).
- Even with that down-weight, the EV/Sales implied mid still sits well above the earnings and EBITDA-based values. The blended mid should be treated as sensitive to that mix assumption.
5-year own-multiple history: not available in the free sources used.
Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-11/AMZN.md
Analyst: Relative Valuation Analyst Company: Amazon.com Price used: $270.87 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market) Shares: 10.81B basic shares outstanding (S&P GMI via stockanalysis; not a fully diluted count) Net cash (debt): $-190.62B Computed EV: $3,118.72B (= price × shares − net cash; may differ slightly from the rounded published EV)
Method
- Multiples are computed from the same source financials for the ticker and every peer (not the vendor's black-box "Forward PE / Forward PS", which is not always consistent with consensus FY1/FY2 EPS and sales).
- NTM P/E and NTM EV/Sales use day-weighted NTM = w×FY1 + (1−w)×FY2, with w = days remaining to FY1 period end from 2026-11-11 ÷ 365.25. If FY2 is missing, FY1 is used and labeled as such.
- EV/EBITDA is trailing-twelve-month; forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source.
- P/FCF uses consensus FY1 FCF (FY2 FCF is gated). Dropped when FY1 FCF is ≤ 0 or the implied P/FCF exceeds 150x (FCF too small to capitalize).
- P/E is dropped when NTM/FY1 EPS is ≤ 0.05 or the multiple exceeds 150x.
- Low / mid / high = peer 25th percentile / median / 75th percentile (linear interpolation, inclusive), applied to the ticker's own NTM EPS, NTM sales, TTM EBITDA, or FY1 FCF. EV multiples are converted to equity as (implied EV + net cash) / basic shares.
- A multiple enters the blended range only if at least three peers have a usable figure and the ticker's own denominator is meaningful.
- 5-year average and range of the ticker's own multiples are not available from the provided free source (the stockanalysis "Financial Ratio History" section is present as a heading with no figures in the scrape).
Peer set
Mix of retail and AWS. Suggested retail comps WMT and COST are not in the provided raw files and could not be fetched (Cloudflare 403 / Yahoo unauthorized), so the set is the available platform/cloud names (GOOG, MSFT, META). That mix is too software-heavy for Amazon’s revenue base; EV/Sales is therefore down-weighted in the blend.
| Peer | NTM P/E | NTM EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | FY1 P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN (subject) | 24.9x | 3.3x | 17.0x | n/a |
| GOOG | 18.8x | 5.5x | 18.3x | n/a |
| MSFT | 24.7x | 9.5x | 19.6x | 121.1x |
| META | 18.4x | 5.5x | 14.4x | n/a |
FY1 ends Dec 31, 2026 (w on FY1 = 0.137). Consensus FY1/FY2 non-GAAP EPS 10.76 / 10.9; NTM EPS 10.881. NTM sales $940.90B (FY1 $829.00B, FY2 $958.65B). TTM EBITDA $183.72B. Consensus FY1 FCF $-38.90B. Flags: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
Peer cells marked n/a (and why):
- GOOG FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
- META FY1 P/FCF: FY1 P/FCF n/a (consensus FY1 FCF is negative or zero)
Implied per-share value
| Multiple | AMZN now | Peer 25th / median / 75th (n) | Implied $/share low / mid / high |
|---|---|---|---|
| NTM P/E | 24.9x | 18.6x / 18.8x / 21.8x (3) | $202.84 / $205.06 / $237.13 |
| NTM EV/Sales | 3.3x | 5.5x / 5.5x / 7.5x (3) | $459.52 / $460.19 / $633.26 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 17.0x | 16.3x / 18.3x / 18.9x (3) | $259.96 / $292.64 / $304.03 |
| FY1 P/FCF | n/a | 121.1x / 121.1x / 121.1x (1) | not used (ticker multiple n/a or not meaningful) |
Current multiples vs own history
5-year average and range: n/a. The provided stockanalysis statistics scrape includes a “Financial Ratio History” heading with no figures (likely gated). No 5-year P/E, EV/EBITDA, EV/Sales or P/FCF average was invented or taken from another unpaid-login source in time for this run.
Blended range
Weights: weights NTM P/E 40%, NTM EV/Sales 20%, EV/EBITDA (TTM) 40%.
Low / mid / high: $277.02 / $291.12 / $343.11 Vs close $270.87: mid implies +7.5% upside.
Adjustments and judgment
- FY1 and TTM FCF are negative, so P/FCF is not used.
- The available peers are all high-margin platforms (GOOG, MSFT, META). WMT and COST — the retail comps named in the brief — could not be loaded (not in the provided raw files; public fetches were blocked). Applying those platform EV/Sales multiples to Amazon’s largely retail revenue base would overstate value, so NTM EV/Sales is down-weighted to 20% of the blend (40% NTM P/E, 40% TTM EV/EBITDA, 20% NTM EV/Sales).
- Even with that down-weight, the EV/Sales implied mid still sits well above the earnings and EBITDA-based values. The blended mid should be treated as sensitive to that mix assumption.
Data sources and as-of dates
- Prices: regular-session close Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST close (not pre-market), from stockanalysis.com pages (S&P Global Market Intelligence), cross-checked in the coordinator input files vs the Yahoo Finance chart API.
- Fundamentals and consensus: stockanalysis.com statistics (stats last updated on the pages on Nov 11, 2026) and forecast (this ticker's forecast page last updated Nov 6, 2026) for AMZN and each peer. Forecast update dates differ by ticker.
- Raw files:
/workspace/fair-value/coordinator/2026-11-11/raw/(fetched 2026-11-11 05:23 MST (America/Phoenix)). Official collector folderdata/2026-11-11/did not yet have ticker files when this run started; coordinator fallback input files were used. - 5-year multiple history: n/a (not in the free scrape).
- Public web was used only to attempt WMT/COST for AMZN (stockanalysis Cloudflare 403; Yahoo quoteSummary unauthorized). No paid logins.
- Peer forecast update dates:
- AMZN: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 6, 2026
- GOOG: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Oct 30, 2026
- MSFT: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 6, 2026
- META: stats Nov 11, 2026, forecast Nov 9, 2026
4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid
- DCF not meaningful → blended fair value = relative mid only.
FV = $291.12 (report: $291.12)
5Margin of safety → callFair
- Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
($291.12 − $272.71) ÷ $291.12 = +6.3% (report: +6.3%) - Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = +6.8%; price vs FV = -6.3%
- Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
→ Fair Low confidence
6Flags and notes3 flag(s)
Flags
⚑ Low confidence: peer set too software-heavy for Amazon's revenue mix; no DCF cross-check.
⚑ Call moved Rich → Fair because this morning's version leaned on a coordinator normalized-FCF DCF ($104.57) that is now dropped.
⚑ Next earnings date not posted.
Coordinator notes
- Relative only: DCF not meaningful (TTM FCF −$46.9B pre-SBC after the capex step-up; base case negative even with a margin ramp).
- Relative mid $291.12 uses only GOOG, MSFT and META (WMT/COST data unavailable), weights NTM P/E 40%, EV/Sales 20%, EV/EBITDA 40%.
Source files: data/2026-11-11/AMZN.md dcf/2026-11-11-rerun/AMZN.md relative/2026-11-11/AMZN.md