# AMZN – Amazon – DCF (2026-11-11)

DCF Analyst model, rerun by Fair Value Coordinator on today's data. Input file: `data/2026-11-11/AMZN.md`. Generated 2026-11-11 07:16 MST (Phoenix).

> **PROVISIONAL:** TTM FCF depressed/negative from capex step-up; margin ramps to pre-surge normalized level (judgment).

**Price used:** $270.87 (regular-session close Nov 10, 2026). Shares 10,813M (diluted/implied, Yahoo impliedSharesOutstanding per Data Collector 2026-11-11).

| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $-18.04 | -107% | 7.8% fading to 3.6% | -8.4% → 2.0% | 12.7% | 2.5% |
| Base | **$-9.04** | -103% | 14.1% fading to 4.8% | -8.4% → 2.7% | 11.7% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $-4.99 | -102% | 15.6% fading to 5.1% | -8.4% → 2.7% | 10.7% | 2.5% |

## WACC build
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 1.50 (5Y observed (Data Collector)); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 12.5%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 90.6% / debt 9.4% (mkt cap $2,930.0B, debt $304.8B)
- WACC 11.7% → **11.7%**

## Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $797.5B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $168.3B / $-215.2B / $-46.9B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $19.9B (2.5% of rev; n/m of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Sep 30 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $-66.8B = -8.4% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026): $829.0B; FY2 $958.6B (FY2/FY1 15.6%); 3Y CAGR 15.9% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $-38.9B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 15.6% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 14.1% (90%) / 7.8% (50%) / 15.6% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $-190.6B | Data Collector |
| Normalized margin (yr5 target) | 2.7% after SBC (bear 75% of it) | TTM to Dec 31 2024 FCF margin 5.15% (before the 2025-26 capex step-up) minus current SBC/rev |

## Base-case 5-year FCF ($B)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14.1% | 909.7 | -8.4% | -76.2 | -68.2 |
| 2 | 11.8% | 1,016.7 | -5.6% | -57.1 | -45.7 |
| 3 | 9.4% | 1,112.7 | -2.9% | -31.8 | -22.8 |
| 4 | 7.1% | 1,192.1 | -0.1% | -1.2 | -0.8 |
| 5 | 4.8% | 1,249.5 | 2.7% | 33.2 | 19.1 |

## Terminal value check (base)
- Gordon TV $368.0B, PV $211.2B; EV $92.8B; TV share of EV 227.5% **⚠ above 75%**
- Implied exit multiple 11.1x year-5 FCF (current EV/FCF n/a)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $270.87: **26.3%** vs TTM -8.4%

## Sensitivity – base case $/share (WACC vs terminal g)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.7% | $-7.20 | $-5.78 | $-4.18 |
| 11.2% | $-8.75 | $-7.51 | $-6.13 |
| 11.7% | $-10.13 | $-9.04 | $-7.83 |
| 12.2% | $-11.37 | $-10.40 | $-9.32 |
| 12.7% | $-12.47 | $-11.60 | $-10.65 |

## Sources
- - Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (`price`, `summaryDetail`, `defaultKeyStatistics`, `financialData`, `calendarEvents`, `earningsTrend`, `incomeStatementHistory`): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/AMZN — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET
- Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/AMZN — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 6, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=AMZN — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
- TTM SBC: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amzn/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=trailing (fetched 2026-11-11 ~05:25 MST)

## Caveats
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).
- Base value ≤ 0: TTM-anchored FCF after SBC is negative; treat as not meaningful, see implied margin.