NOW ServiceNow Fair Indicative confidence

Fair-value build for 2026-11-10. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.

DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV

$54.10$163.19

1 · Price

›

›

›

›

5 · Margin of safety → call

-4.5% → Fair

1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps

Price used for the call

$99.61

Shares (diluted / implied)

not in files

Net cash (debt)

$-1.45B

Beta (5Y)

0.98

Market cap

$103.39B

TTM revenue

$15.43B

TTM FCF (OCF − capex)

not in files

Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-10/NOW.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator (no other bots used). Public data only.

Field	Value
Close (regular session)	$99.61 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST (close, not pre-market; cross-checked vs Yahoo Finance chart API)
Market cap	$103.39B
Enterprise value	$104.84B
Shares outstanding (source: S&P GMI via stockanalysis; basic count, not fully diluted)	1,040M
Cash	$4.61B
Total debt	$8.42B
Net cash (debt)	$-1.45B
Beta (5Y)	0.98
TTM revenue	$15.43B
TTM EBITDA	$3.24B
TTM net income	$1.45B
TTM EPS (GAAP)	1.39
TTM operating cash flow	$5.33B
TTM capex	$-0.58B
TTM D&A	$1.27B
TTM free cash flow	$4.75B
Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026)	$16.23B
Consensus revenue FY2	$19.26B
Consensus EPS FY1 (non-GAAP)	3.95
Consensus EPS FY2 (non-GAAP)	4.80
Consensus FCF FY1	$5.77B
Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	19.7%
EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	18.8%
Analyst avg price target	$155.82 (49 analysts)
P/E TTM	71.65
Forward P/E	21.94
P/S TTM	6.70
Forward P/S	5.61
P/FCF TTM	21.77
EV/Sales TTM	6.79
EV/EBITDA TTM	32.41
EV/FCF TTM	22.07
Earnings date	last: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 after market close

Missing / not available from public source: none

Sources (fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix)):

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/statistics/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Oct 30, 2026)
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/now/forecast/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Oct 30, 2026)
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/NOW (close cross-check)
10-year Treasury: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, 2026-11-10: 4.98%

2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity

Bear

$79.78

Base

$119.44

Bull

$157.35

WACC (base)

9.49%

WACC inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 0.98 -> cost of equity 9.88%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $103.39B / total debt $8.42B -> WACC 9.49%
Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $5.77B (FY ending Dec 31, 2026); TTM FCF $4.75B.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 19.7%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $-1.45B; shares 1,038M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

No separate WACC build section in this file; inputs shown as written.

SBC treatment

TTM SBC: not in files. SBC was not deducted in this run (pre-default).

Revenue and FCF projections (base case)

not in files as a year-by-year table: the file lists base-case FCF as Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 5.8, 6.9, 8.3, 9.4, 10.2.

Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)

Separate section not in files. File states: Terminal value is 76% of EV.

Terminal value is more than 75% of EV: the result leans heavily on long-run assumptions.

Enterprise value → equity → per share

Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states net cash (debt), shares only. Net cash (debt) $-1.45B; shares 1,038M.

Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
8.49%	$130.97	$140.59	$151.97
9.49%	$112.49	$119.44	$127.47
10.49%	$98.39	$103.61	$109.53

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/NOW.md

Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-10/NOW.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

Inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 0.98 -> cost of equity 9.88%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $103.39B / total debt $8.42B -> WACC 9.49%
Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $5.77B (FY ending Dec 31, 2026); TTM FCF $4.75B.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 19.7%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $-1.45B; shares 1,038M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

Result (per share, vs close $99.61)

Bear	Base	Bull
$79.78	$119.44	$157.35

Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 5.8, 6.9, 8.3, 9.4, 10.2. Terminal value is 76% of EV; implied terminal multiple 14.7x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).

Sensitivity (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
8.49%	$130.97	$140.59	$151.97
9.49%	$112.49	$119.44	$127.47
10.49%	$98.39	$103.61	$109.53

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/NOW.md

3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights

Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.

Low (peer 25th pct)

$59.94

Mid (peer median)

$71.19

High (peer 75th pct)

$97.19

Peer groups and blend weights

Group	Weight	Low	Mid	High	Weight × mid
Peer set	not in files	$59.94	$71.19	$97.19	—

File weights: . File blended range: not in files.

Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-10/NOW.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Forward multiples where public consensus exists (Fwd P/E, Fwd EV/Sales = Fwd P/S x EV/market cap, Fwd P/FCF = market cap / FY1 consensus FCF); EV/EBITDA is TTM because forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source (data gap). Low/mid/high = peer Q1/median/Q3. TSM excluded from Fwd P/FCF (source forecast in TWD).

Peer set: peers CRM, ADBE, ORCL, SAP, INTU, WDAY, ADSK, MSFT

Peer	Fwd P/E	Fwd EV/Sales	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Fwd P/FCF
CRM	14.6x	4.3x	16.0x	11.7x
ADBE	8.8x	3.3x	9.4x	8.8x
ORCL	13.8x	5.1x	14.5x	n/a
SAP	26.2x	5.5x	19.4x	26.8x
INTU	14.3x	3.9x	13.5x	10.4x
WDAY	15.7x	4.1x	28.9x	14.5x
ADSK	20.0x	6.1x	23.5x	19.8x
MSFT	25.7x	9.7x	19.6x	121.1x

Multiple	NOW now	Peer Q1 / median / Q3 (n)	Implied $/share low / mid / high
Fwd P/E	21.9x	14.2x / 15.1x / 21.4x (8)	$64.38 / $68.56 / $97.29
Fwd EV/Sales	5.7x	4.1x / 4.7x / 5.7x (8)	$70.74 / $81.41 / $99.34
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	32.4x	14.3x / 17.7x / 20.6x (8)	$43.10 / $53.93 / $62.83
Fwd P/FCF	17.9x	11.1x / 14.5x / 23.3x (7)	$61.52 / $80.85 / $129.31

Implied range (Peer set): $59.94 / $71.19 / $97.19 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)

Sources: stockanalysis.com statistics + forecast pages for NOW and each peer (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix).

4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid

Blended fair value = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid
0.5 × $119.44 + 0.5 × $71.19 = $95.31 (report: $95.31)
Divergence check: |DCF base − relative mid| ÷ relative mid
|$119.44 − $71.19| ÷ $71.19 = 67.8% → above 25%: blended value is indicative and above 50%: low confidence

5Margin of safety → callFair

Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
($95.31 − $99.61) ÷ $95.31 = -4.5% (report: -4.5%)
Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = -4.3%; price vs FV = +4.5%
Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
→ Fair Indicative confidence

6Flags and notes2 flag(s)

Flags

⚑ DCF vs comps disagree by 68% (>25%): blended value is indicative only, both shown

⚑ Last reported Oct 28, 2026; the next date is not yet posted on the source

Coordinator notes

Forward P/E 21.9x and TTM EV/EBITDA 32.4x, both above the software peer medians, so the comps median ($71.20) is below the close.
The DCF base ($119.40) is driven by the consensus 3-year revenue CAGR of 19.7% and FY1 FCF of $5.8B.
WACC 9.49% (Ke 9.88%); DCF sensitivity range $98.39–$151.97

Source files: data/2026-11-10/NOW.md dcf/2026-11-10/NOW.md relative/2026-11-10/NOW.md