ADBE Adobe Cheap Normal confidence

Fair-value build for 2026-11-10. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.

DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV

$216.60$591.79

1 · Price

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5 · Margin of safety → call

+41.8% → Cheap

1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps

Price used for the call

$236.70

Shares (diluted / implied)

not in files

Net cash (debt)

$-1.15B

Beta (5Y)

1.38

Market cap

$92.12B

TTM revenue

$25.97B

TTM FCF (OCF − capex)

not in files

Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-10/ADBE.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator (no other bots used). Public data only.

Field	Value
Close (regular session)	$236.70 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST (close, not pre-market; cross-checked vs Yahoo Finance chart API)
Market cap	$92.12B
Enterprise value	$93.27B
Shares outstanding (source: S&P GMI via stockanalysis; basic count, not fully diluted)	389M
Cash	$5.64B
Total debt	$6.79B
Net cash (debt)	$-1.15B
Beta (5Y)	1.38
TTM revenue	$25.97B
TTM EBITDA	$9.92B
TTM net income	$7.28B
TTM EPS (GAAP)	17.92
TTM operating cash flow	$10.81B
TTM capex	$-0.21B
TTM D&A	$0.48B
TTM free cash flow	$10.59B
Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Nov 30, 2026)	$26.61B
Consensus revenue FY2	$29.03B
Consensus EPS FY1 (non-GAAP)	24.48
Consensus EPS FY2 (non-GAAP)	27.43
Consensus FCF FY1	$10.41B
Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	9.6%
EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	14.2%
Analyst avg price target	$266.91 (39 analysts)
P/E TTM	13.21
Forward P/E	8.83
P/S TTM	3.55
Forward P/S	3.24
P/FCF TTM	8.70
EV/Sales TTM	3.59
EV/EBITDA TTM	9.40
EV/FCF TTM	8.81
Earnings date	next estimated: Wednesday, December 9, 2026 after market close

Missing / not available from public source: none

Sources (fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix)):

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/adbe/statistics/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 10, 2026, forecast updated Nov 4, 2026)
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/adbe/forecast/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 10, 2026, forecast updated Nov 4, 2026)
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ADBE (close cross-check)
10-year Treasury: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, 2026-11-10: 4.98%

2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity

Bear

$271.50

Base

$354.27

Bull

$432.94

WACC (base)

11.39%

WACC inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.38 -> cost of equity 11.88%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $92.12B / total debt $6.79B -> WACC 11.39%
Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $10.41B (FY ending Nov 30, 2026); TTM FCF $10.59B.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 9.6%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $-1.15B; shares 389M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

No separate WACC build section in this file; inputs shown as written.

SBC treatment

TTM SBC: not in files. SBC was not deducted in this run (pre-default).

Revenue and FCF projections (base case)

not in files as a year-by-year table: the file lists base-case FCF as Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 10.4, 11.4, 12.5, 13.4, 14.1.

Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)

Separate section not in files. File states: Terminal value is 68% of EV.

Enterprise value → equity → per share

Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states net cash (debt), shares only. Net cash (debt) $-1.15B; shares 389M.

Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
10.39%	$380.98	$400.77	$423.23
11.39%	$339.00	$354.27	$371.37
12.39%	$305.13	$317.22	$330.58

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/ADBE.md

Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-10/ADBE.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

Inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.38 -> cost of equity 11.88%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $92.12B / total debt $6.79B -> WACC 11.39%
Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $10.41B (FY ending Nov 30, 2026); TTM FCF $10.59B.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 9.6%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $-1.15B; shares 389M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

Result (per share, vs close $236.70)

Bear	Base	Bull
$271.50	$354.27	$432.94

Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 10.4, 11.4, 12.5, 13.4, 14.1. Terminal value is 68% of EV; implied terminal multiple 11.5x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).

Sensitivity (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
10.39%	$380.98	$400.77	$423.23
11.39%	$339.00	$354.27	$371.37
12.39%	$305.13	$317.22	$330.58

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/ADBE.md

3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights

Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.

Low (peer 25th pct)

$360.16

Mid (peer median)

$458.91

High (peer 75th pct)

$571.69

Peer groups and blend weights

Group	Weight	Low	Mid	High	Weight × mid
Peer set	not in files	$360.16	$458.91	$571.69	—

File weights: . File blended range: not in files.

Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-10/ADBE.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Forward multiples where public consensus exists (Fwd P/E, Fwd EV/Sales = Fwd P/S x EV/market cap, Fwd P/FCF = market cap / FY1 consensus FCF); EV/EBITDA is TTM because forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source (data gap). Low/mid/high = peer Q1/median/Q3. TSM excluded from Fwd P/FCF (source forecast in TWD).

Peer set: peers CRM, NOW, ORCL, SAP, INTU, WDAY, ADSK, MSFT

Peer	Fwd P/E	Fwd EV/Sales	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Fwd P/FCF
CRM	14.6x	4.3x	16.0x	11.7x
NOW	21.9x	5.7x	32.4x	17.9x
ORCL	13.8x	5.1x	14.5x	n/a
SAP	26.2x	5.5x	19.4x	26.8x
INTU	14.3x	3.9x	13.5x	10.4x
WDAY	15.7x	4.1x	28.9x	14.5x
ADSK	20.0x	6.1x	23.5x	19.8x
MSFT	25.7x	9.7x	19.6x	121.1x

Multiple	ADBE now	Peer Q1 / median / Q3 (n)	Implied $/share low / mid / high
Fwd P/E	8.8x	14.5x / 17.8x / 22.9x (8)	$388.36 / $477.96 / $613.26
Fwd EV/Sales	3.3x	4.2x / 5.3x / 5.8x (8)	$305.30 / $383.93 / $420.62
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	9.4x	15.6x / 19.5x / 24.9x (8)	$395.82 / $494.47 / $630.71
Fwd P/FCF	8.8x	13.1x / 17.9x / 23.3x (7)	$351.15 / $479.29 / $622.17

Implied range (Peer set): $360.16 / $458.91 / $571.69 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)

Sources: stockanalysis.com statistics + forecast pages for ADBE and each peer (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix).

4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid

Blended fair value = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid
0.5 × $354.27 + 0.5 × $458.91 = $406.59 (report: $406.59)
Divergence check: |DCF base − relative mid| ÷ relative mid
|$354.27 − $458.91| ÷ $458.91 = 22.8% → within 25%: normal confidence

5Margin of safety → callCheap

Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
($406.59 − $236.70) ÷ $406.59 = +41.8% (report: +41.8%)
Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = +71.8%; price vs FV = -41.8%
Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
→ Cheap Normal confidence

6Flags and notes1 flag(s)

Flags

⚑ Earnings Dec 9, 2026 after the close (estimated, not yet confirmed; in 29 days)

Coordinator notes

Forward P/E 8.8x and TTM P/FCF 8.7x, well below the software peers. Year-1 FCF is the FY Nov-2026 consensus of $10.4B, and the 3-year revenue CAGR is 9.6%.
Both the DCF ($354.30) and comps ($458.90) sit far above the $236.70 close. The market is pricing much lower growth or durability than consensus, so check for a thesis risk before relying on Cheap.
WACC 11.39% (Ke 11.88%); DCF sensitivity range $305.13–$423.23

Source files: data/2026-11-10/ADBE.md dcf/2026-11-10/ADBE.md relative/2026-11-10/ADBE.md