AAPL Apple Rich Normal confidence

Fair-value build for 2026-11-10. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.

DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV

$105.22$362.28

1 · Price

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5 · Margin of safety → call

-96.7% → Rich

1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps

Price used for the call

$348.51

Shares (diluted / implied)

not in files

Net cash (debt)

$42.46B

Beta (5Y)

1.09

Market cap

$5,060.00B

TTM revenue

$478.83B

TTM FCF (OCF − capex)

not in files

Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-10/AAPL.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator (no other bots used). Public data only.

Field	Value
Close (regular session)	$348.51 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST (close, not pre-market; cross-checked vs Yahoo Finance chart API)
Market cap	$5,060.00B
Enterprise value	$5,020.00B
Shares outstanding (source: S&P GMI via stockanalysis; basic count, not fully diluted)	14,530M
Cash	n/a
Total debt	$94.48B
Net cash (debt)	$42.46B
Beta (5Y)	1.09
TTM revenue	$478.83B
TTM EBITDA	$171.49B
TTM net income	$132.18B
TTM EPS (GAAP)	8.98
TTM operating cash flow	$145.10B
TTM capex	$-9.04B
TTM D&A	$13.42B
TTM free cash flow	$136.06B
Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Sep 30, 2027)	$527.22B
Consensus revenue FY2	$569.24B
Consensus EPS FY1 (non-GAAP)	9.40
Consensus EPS FY2 (non-GAAP)	10.55
Consensus FCF FY1	$148.08B
Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	8.1%
EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	9.4%
Analyst avg price target	$340.77 (45 analysts)
P/E TTM	38.81
Forward P/E	37.08
P/S TTM	10.62
Forward P/S	9.69
P/FCF TTM	37.36
EV/Sales TTM	10.53
EV/EBITDA TTM	29.39
EV/FCF TTM	37.05
Earnings date	last: Monday, November 2, 2026 after market close

Missing / not available from public source: Cash

Sources (fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix)):

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/statistics/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 10, 2026, forecast updated Nov 9, 2026)
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/forecast/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 10, 2026, forecast updated Nov 9, 2026)
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/AAPL (close cross-check)
10-year Treasury: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, 2026-11-10: 4.98%

2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity

Bear

$118.99

Base

$152.74

Bull

$185.78

WACC (base)

10.33%

WACC inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.09 -> cost of equity 10.43%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $5,060.00B / total debt $94.48B -> WACC 10.33%
Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $148.08B (FY ending Sep 30, 2027); TTM FCF $136.06B.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 8.1%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $42.46B; shares 14,519M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

No separate WACC build section in this file; inputs shown as written.

SBC treatment

TTM SBC: not in files. SBC was not deducted in this run (pre-default).

Revenue and FCF projections (base case)

not in files as a year-by-year table: the file lists base-case FCF as Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 148.1, 160.1, 173.1, 184.0, 192.0.

Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)

Separate section not in files. File states: Terminal value is 71% of EV.

Enterprise value → equity → per share

Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states net cash (debt), shares only. Net cash (debt) $42.46B; shares 14,519M.

Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
9.33%	$165.24	$175.12	$186.55
10.33%	$145.36	$152.74	$161.12
11.33%	$129.76	$135.44	$141.81

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/AAPL.md

Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-10/AAPL.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

Inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.09 -> cost of equity 10.43%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $5,060.00B / total debt $94.48B -> WACC 10.33%
Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $148.08B (FY ending Sep 30, 2027); TTM FCF $136.06B.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 8.1%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $42.46B; shares 14,519M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

Result (per share, vs close $348.51)

Bear	Base	Bull
$118.99	$152.74	$185.78

Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 148.1, 160.1, 173.1, 184.0, 192.0. Terminal value is 71% of EV; implied terminal multiple 13.1x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).

Sensitivity (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
9.33%	$165.24	$175.12	$186.55
10.33%	$145.36	$152.74	$161.12
11.33%	$129.76	$135.44	$141.81

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/AAPL.md

3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights

Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.

Low (peer 25th pct)

$172.41

Mid (peer median)

$201.57

High (peer 75th pct)

$346.88

Peer groups and blend weights

Group	Weight	Low	Mid	High	Weight × mid
Peer set	not in files	$172.41	$201.57	$346.88	—

File weights: . File blended range: not in files.

Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-10/AAPL.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Forward multiples where public consensus exists (Fwd P/E, Fwd EV/Sales = Fwd P/S x EV/market cap, Fwd P/FCF = market cap / FY1 consensus FCF); EV/EBITDA is TTM because forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source (data gap). Low/mid/high = peer Q1/median/Q3. TSM excluded from Fwd P/FCF (source forecast in TWD).

Peer set: peers MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, META, DELL, QCOM

Peer	Fwd P/E	Fwd EV/Sales	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Fwd P/FCF
MSFT	25.7x	9.7x	19.6x	121.1x
GOOG	20.3x	5.7x	18.4x	n/a
AMZN	27.4x	3.4x	17.0x	n/a
META	19.5x	5.6x	14.4x	n/a
DELL	11.9x	1.1x	13.3x	17.6x
QCOM	18.1x	4.3x	18.3x	22.3x

Multiple	AAPL now	Peer Q1 / median / Q3 (n)	Implied $/share low / mid / high
Fwd P/E	37.1x	18.4x / 19.9x / 24.3x (6)	$173.34 / $186.94 / $228.82
Fwd EV/Sales	9.6x	3.6x / 5.0x / 5.7x (6)	$132.52 / $181.05 / $207.32
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	29.4x	15.0x / 17.6x / 18.4x (6)	$180.37 / $210.93 / $220.14
Fwd P/FCF	34.2x	19.9x / 22.3x / 71.7x (3)	$203.42 / $227.34 / $731.23

Implied range (Peer set): $172.41 / $201.57 / $346.88 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)

Sources: stockanalysis.com statistics + forecast pages for AAPL and each peer (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix).

4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid

Blended fair value = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid
0.5 × $152.74 + 0.5 × $201.57 = $177.16 (report: $177.15)
Divergence check: |DCF base − relative mid| ÷ relative mid
|$152.74 − $201.57| ÷ $201.57 = 24.2% → within 25%: normal confidence

5Margin of safety → callRich

Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
($177.15 − $348.51) ÷ $177.15 = -96.7% (report: -96.7%)
Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = -49.2%; price vs FV = +96.7%
Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
→ Rich Normal confidence

6Flags and notes3 flag(s)

Flags

⚑ Last reported Nov 2, 2026; the next date is not posted

⚑ DCF and comps differ by 24%, just under the 25% flag

⚑ The comps high ($346.88) is lifted by a wide forward P/FCF spread across only 3 usable peers

Coordinator notes

Forward P/E 37.1x versus a mega-cap peer median near 20x. Year-1 FCF is the FY Sep-2027 consensus of $148.1B, and the 3-year revenue CAGR is 8.1%.
The DCF ($152.70) and comps ($201.60) are both well below the $348.51 close. The modest growth consensus does not support today's multiple under these assumptions.
WACC 10.33% (Ke 10.43%); DCF sensitivity range $129.76–$186.55

Source files: data/2026-11-10/AAPL.md dcf/2026-11-10/AAPL.md relative/2026-11-10/AAPL.md