NVDA NVIDIA Cheap Indicative confidence

Fair-value build for 2026-11-10. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.

DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV

$69.08$516.89

1 · Price

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5 · Margin of safety → call

+25.3% → Cheap

1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps

Price used for the call

$168.89

Shares (diluted / implied)

not in files

Net cash (debt)

$23.61B

Beta (5Y)

2.25

Market cap

$4,080.00B

TTM revenue

$302.97B

TTM FCF (OCF − capex)

not in files

Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-10/NVDA.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator (no other bots used). Public data only.

Field	Value
Close (regular session)	$168.89 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST (close, not pre-market; cross-checked vs Yahoo Finance chart API)
Market cap	$4,080.00B
Enterprise value	$4,050.00B
Shares outstanding (source: S&P GMI via stockanalysis; basic count, not fully diluted)	24,150M
Cash	$62.47B
Total debt	$38.86B
Net cash (debt)	$23.61B
Beta (5Y)	2.25
TTM revenue	$302.97B
TTM EBITDA	$201.27B
TTM net income	$192.88B
TTM EPS (GAAP)	7.91
TTM operating cash flow	$134.36B
TTM capex	$-7.35B
TTM D&A	$3.69B
TTM free cash flow	$127.01B
Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Jan 31, 2027)	$411.88B
Consensus revenue FY2	$692.09B
Consensus EPS FY1 (non-GAAP)	9.32
Consensus EPS FY2 (non-GAAP)	15.93
Consensus FCF FY1	$189.85B
Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	61.2%
EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	64.9%
Analyst avg price target	$325.78 (62 analysts)
P/E TTM	21.36
Forward P/E	13.94
P/S TTM	13.46
Forward P/S	7.57
P/FCF TTM	32.12
EV/Sales TTM	13.39
EV/EBITDA TTM	20.15
EV/FCF TTM	31.93
Earnings date	next confirmed: Tuesday, November 17, 2026 after market close

Missing / not available from public source: none

Sources (fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix)):

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/statistics/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 10, 2026, forecast updated Nov 10, 2026)
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/nvda/forecast/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 10, 2026, forecast updated Nov 10, 2026)
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/NVDA (close cross-check)
10-year Treasury: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, 2026-11-10: 4.98%

2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity

Bear

$93.07

Base

$188.54

Bull

$278.03

WACC (base)

16.12%

WACC inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 2.25 -> cost of equity 16.23%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $4,080.00B / total debt $38.86B -> WACC 16.12%
Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $189.85B (FY ending Jan 31, 2027); TTM FCF $127.01B.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 61.2%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $23.61B; shares 24,158M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

No separate WACC build section in this file; inputs shown as written.

SBC treatment

TTM SBC: not in files. SBC was not deducted in this run (pre-default).

Revenue and FCF projections (base case)

not in files as a year-by-year table: the file lists base-case FCF as Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 189.8, 306.0, 493.1, 698.4, 852.4.

Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)

Separate section not in files. File states: Terminal value is 67% of EV.

Enterprise value → equity → per share

Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states net cash (debt), shares only. Net cash (debt) $23.61B; shares 24,158M.

Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
15.12%	$199.68	$206.37	$213.60
16.12%	$182.94	$188.54	$194.57
17.12%	$168.50	$173.24	$178.32

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/NVDA.md

Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-10/NVDA.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

Inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 2.25 -> cost of equity 16.23%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $4,080.00B / total debt $38.86B -> WACC 16.12%
Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $189.85B (FY ending Jan 31, 2027); TTM FCF $127.01B.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 61.2%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $23.61B; shares 24,158M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

Result (per share, vs close $168.89)

Bear	Base	Bull
$93.07	$188.54	$278.03

Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 189.8, 306.0, 493.1, 698.4, 852.4. Terminal value is 67% of EV; implied terminal multiple 7.5x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).

Sensitivity (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
15.12%	$199.68	$206.37	$213.60
16.12%	$182.94	$188.54	$194.57
17.12%	$168.50	$173.24	$178.32

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/NVDA.md

3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights

Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.

Low (peer 25th pct)

$171.91

Mid (peer median)

$263.45

High (peer 75th pct)

$492.90

Peer groups and blend weights

Group	Weight	Low	Mid	High	Weight × mid
Peer set	not in files	$171.91	$263.45	$492.90	—

File weights: . File blended range: not in files.

Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-10/NVDA.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Forward multiples where public consensus exists (Fwd P/E, Fwd EV/Sales = Fwd P/S x EV/market cap, Fwd P/FCF = market cap / FY1 consensus FCF); EV/EBITDA is TTM because forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source (data gap). Low/mid/high = peer Q1/median/Q3. TSM excluded from Fwd P/FCF (source forecast in TWD).

Peer set: peers AMD, AVGO, QCOM, INTC, MRVL, TSM, ARM, MU, TXN

Peer	Fwd P/E	Fwd EV/Sales	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Fwd P/FCF
AMD	34.2x	10.0x	75.2x	123.4x
AVGO	19.1x	10.3x	31.0x	32.1x
QCOM	18.1x	4.3x	18.3x	22.3x
INTC	41.8x	4.7x	15.9x	3200.3x
MRVL	27.4x	8.7x	48.0x	49.3x
TSM	19.0x	7.7x	15.0x	n/a
ARM	70.5x	27.1x	169.4x	115.6x
MU	4.1x	2.7x	6.9x	5.7x
TXN	26.3x	10.9x	26.1x	29.6x

Multiple	NVDA now	Peer Q1 / median / Q3 (n)	Implied $/share low / mid / high
Fwd P/E	13.9x	19.0x / 26.3x / 34.2x (9)	$230.32 / $318.88 / $414.71
Fwd EV/Sales	7.5x	4.7x / 8.7x / 10.3x (9)	$105.34 / $195.94 / $231.82
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	20.1x	15.9x / 26.1x / 48.0x (9)	$133.96 / $219.03 / $401.40
Fwd P/FCF	21.5x	27.7x / 40.7x / 117.5x (8)	$218.02 / $319.95 / $923.65

Implied range (Peer set): $171.91 / $263.45 / $492.90 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)

Sources: stockanalysis.com statistics + forecast pages for NVDA and each peer (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix).

4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid

Blended fair value = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid
0.5 × $188.54 + 0.5 × $263.45 = $226.00 (report: $226.00)
Divergence check: |DCF base − relative mid| ÷ relative mid
|$188.54 − $263.45| ÷ $263.45 = 28.4% → above 25%: blended value is indicative

5Margin of safety → callCheap

Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
($226.00 − $168.89) ÷ $226.00 = +25.3% (report: +25.3%)
Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = +33.8%; price vs FV = -25.3%
Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
→ Cheap Indicative confidence

6Flags and notes3 flag(s)

Flags

⚑ DCF vs comps disagree by 28% (>25%): blended value is indicative only, both shown

⚑ EARNINGS SOON: Nov 17, 2026 (in 7 days); expect estimates and the price to move

⚑ High beta makes the DCF very sensitive to the discount rate

Coordinator notes

Forward P/E 13.9x versus a semiconductor peer median of 26.3x, so comps are high ($263.40 median).
The DCF base ($188.50) is held down by a 2.25 beta, which gives a 16.1% WACC, even with FY Jan-2027 FCF of $189.9B and a 61% 3-year revenue CAGR. A lower beta would raise the DCF a lot.
WACC 16.12% (Ke 16.23%); DCF sensitivity range $168.50–$213.60

Source files: data/2026-11-10/NVDA.md dcf/2026-11-10/NVDA.md relative/2026-11-10/NVDA.md