# NVDA – DCF (2026-11-10)

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

## Inputs
- Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 2.25 -> cost of equity 16.23%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $4,080.00B / total debt $38.86B -> **WACC 16.12%**
- Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $189.85B (FY ending Jan 31, 2027); TTM FCF $127.01B.
- Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 61.2%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
- Net cash (debt): $23.61B; shares 24,158M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
- Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

## Result (per share, vs close $168.89)
| Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|
| $93.07 | **$188.54** | $278.03 |

Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 189.8, 306.0, 493.1, 698.4, 852.4. Terminal value is 67% of EV; implied terminal multiple 7.5x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).

## Sensitivity (base case, $/share)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15.12% | $199.68 | $206.37 | $213.60 |
| 16.12% | $182.94 | $188.54 | $194.57 |
| 17.12% | $168.50 | $173.24 | $178.32 |

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/NVDA.md