# AAPL – DCF (2026-11-10)

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

## Inputs
- Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.09 -> cost of equity 10.43%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $5,060.00B / total debt $94.48B -> **WACC 10.33%**
- Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $148.08B (FY ending Sep 30, 2027); TTM FCF $136.06B.
- Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 8.1%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
- Net cash (debt): $42.46B; shares 14,519M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
- Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

## Result (per share, vs close $348.51)
| Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|
| $118.99 | **$152.74** | $185.78 |

Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 148.1, 160.1, 173.1, 184.0, 192.0. Terminal value is 71% of EV; implied terminal multiple 13.1x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).

## Sensitivity (base case, $/share)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.33% | $165.24 | $175.12 | $186.55 |
| 10.33% | $145.36 | $152.74 | $161.12 |
| 11.33% | $129.76 | $135.44 | $141.81 |

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/AAPL.md