FairValue pre-open

← 2026-11-10 overview · ‹ AMZN · NOW ›

CRM Salesforce Cheap Normal confidence

Fair-value build for 2026-11-10. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.

DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV
$177.33$363.98
1 · Price
$213.48
›
2 · DCF base
$261.52
›
3 · Relative mid
$282.78
›
4 · Blended FV
$272.15
›
5 · Margin of safety → call
+21.6% → Cheap
1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps
Price used for the call
$213.48
$213.48
Shares (diluted / implied)
not in files
Net cash (debt)
$-30.97B
Beta (5Y)
1.23
Market cap
$175.69B
TTM revenue
$43.94B
TTM FCF (OCF − capex)
not in files
Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-10/CRM.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator (no other bots used). Public data only.

FieldValue
Close (regular session)$213.48 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST (close, not pre-market; cross-checked vs Yahoo Finance chart API)
Market cap$175.69B
Enterprise value$206.67B
Shares outstanding (source: S&P GMI via stockanalysis; basic count, not fully diluted)823M
Cash$11.40B
Total debt$42.38B
Net cash (debt)$-30.97B
Beta (5Y)1.23
TTM revenue$43.94B
TTM EBITDA$12.90B
TTM net income$9.66B
TTM EPS (GAAP)10.79
TTM operating cash flow$15.75B
TTM capex$-0.60B
TTM D&A$3.44B
TTM free cash flow$15.15B
Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Jan 31, 2027)$46.30B
Consensus revenue FY2$50.78B
Consensus EPS FY1 (non-GAAP)16.75
Consensus EPS FY2 (non-GAAP)16.02
Consensus FCF FY1$15.00B
Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR)10.3%
EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR)13.8%
Analyst avg price target$287.08 (56 analysts)
P/E TTM19.78
Forward P/E14.55
P/S TTM4.00
Forward P/S3.62
P/FCF TTM11.59
EV/Sales TTM4.70
EV/EBITDA TTM16.02
EV/FCF TTM13.64
Earnings datenext confirmed: Wednesday, December 2, 2026 after market close

Missing / not available from public source: none

Sources (fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix)):

2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity
Bear
$187.33
Base
$261.52
Bull
$333.75
WACC (base)
9.89%

WACC inputs

  • Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.23 -> cost of equity 11.13%
  • Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $175.69B / total debt $42.38B -> WACC 9.89%
  • Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $15.00B (FY ending Jan 31, 2027); TTM FCF $15.15B.
  • Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 10.3%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
  • Net cash (debt): $-30.97B; shares 823M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
  • Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

No separate WACC build section in this file; inputs shown as written.

SBC treatment

TTM SBC: not in files. SBC was not deducted in this run (pre-default).

Revenue and FCF projections (base case)

not in files as a year-by-year table: the file lists base-case FCF as Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 15.0, 16.5, 18.2, 19.6, 20.6.

Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)

Separate section not in files. File states: Terminal value is 73% of EV.

Enterprise value → equity → per share

Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states net cash (debt), shares only. Net cash (debt) $-30.97B; shares 823M.

Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g2.0%2.5%3.0%
8.89%$288.01$309.55$334.74
9.89%$245.70$261.52$279.63
10.89%$212.93$224.97$238.53

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/CRM.md

Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-10/CRM.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

Inputs

  • Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.23 -> cost of equity 11.13%
  • Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $175.69B / total debt $42.38B -> WACC 9.89%
  • Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $15.00B (FY ending Jan 31, 2027); TTM FCF $15.15B.
  • Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 10.3%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
  • Net cash (debt): $-30.97B; shares 823M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
  • Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

Result (per share, vs close $213.48)

BearBaseBull
$187.33$261.52$333.75

Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 15.0, 16.5, 18.2, 19.6, 20.6. Terminal value is 73% of EV; implied terminal multiple 13.9x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).

Sensitivity (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g2.0%2.5%3.0%
8.89%$288.01$309.55$334.74
9.89%$245.70$261.52$279.63
10.89%$212.93$224.97$238.53

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/CRM.md

3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights
Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.
Low (peer 25th pct)
$205.83
Mid (peer median)
$282.78
High (peer 75th pct)
$353.98

Peer groups and blend weights

GroupWeightLowMidHighWeight × mid
Peer setnot in files$205.83$282.78$353.98—

File weights: . File blended range: not in files.

Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-10/CRM.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Forward multiples where public consensus exists (Fwd P/E, Fwd EV/Sales = Fwd P/S x EV/market cap, Fwd P/FCF = market cap / FY1 consensus FCF); EV/EBITDA is TTM because forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source (data gap). Low/mid/high = peer Q1/median/Q3. TSM excluded from Fwd P/FCF (source forecast in TWD).

Peer set: peers NOW, ADBE, ORCL, SAP, INTU, WDAY, ADSK, MSFT

PeerFwd P/EFwd EV/SalesEV/EBITDA (TTM)Fwd P/FCF
NOW21.9x5.7x32.4x17.9x
ADBE8.8x3.3x9.4x8.8x
ORCL13.8x5.1x14.5xn/a
SAP26.2x5.5x19.4x26.8x
INTU14.3x3.9x13.5x10.4x
WDAY15.7x4.1x28.9x14.5x
ADSK20.0x6.1x23.5x19.8x
MSFT25.7x9.7x19.6x121.1x
MultipleCRM nowPeer Q1 / median / Q3 (n)Implied $/share low / mid / high
Fwd P/E14.6x14.2x / 17.8x / 22.9x (8)$208.05 / $261.60 / $335.66
Fwd EV/Sales4.3x4.1x / 5.3x / 5.8x (8)$201.95 / $274.66 / $304.28
EV/EBITDA (TTM)16.0x14.3x / 19.5x / 24.9x (8)$185.80 / $268.25 / $352.03
Fwd P/FCF11.7x12.5x / 17.9x / 23.3x (7)$227.51 / $326.59 / $423.95

Implied range (Peer set): $205.83 / $282.78 / $353.98 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)

Sources: stockanalysis.com statistics + forecast pages for CRM and each peer (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix).

4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid
  1. Blended fair value = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid
    0.5 × $261.52 + 0.5 × $282.78 = $272.15 (report: $272.15)
  2. Divergence check: |DCF base − relative mid| ÷ relative mid
    |$261.52 − $282.78| ÷ $282.78 = 7.5% → within 25%: normal confidence
5Margin of safety → callCheap
  1. Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
    ($272.15 − $213.48) ÷ $272.15 = +21.6% (report: +21.6%)
  2. Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = +27.5%; price vs FV = -21.6%
  3. Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
    → Cheap Normal confidence
6Flags and notes2 flag(s)

Flags

⚑ Earnings Wed Dec 2, 2026 after the close (in 22 days)
⚑ Net debt of $31.0B after $30.2B of TTM net borrowing; share count down 7.4% YoY (buybacks)

Coordinator notes

  • Forward P/E 14.6x and TTM P/FCF 11.6x. Year-1 FCF is the FY Jan-2027 consensus of $15.0B, and the consensus 3-year revenue CAGR is 10.3%.
  • The DCF base ($261.50) and comps median ($282.80) are within 8% of each other. Both sit above the close, which drives the Cheap call.
  • WACC 9.89% (Ke 11.13%); DCF sensitivity range $212.93–$334.74

Source files: data/2026-11-10/CRM.md dcf/2026-11-10/CRM.md relative/2026-11-10/CRM.md