# NOW – DCF (2026-11-10)

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

## Inputs
- Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 0.98 -> cost of equity 9.88%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $103.39B / total debt $8.42B -> **WACC 9.49%**
- Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $5.77B (FY ending Dec 31, 2026); TTM FCF $4.75B.
- Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 19.7%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
- Net cash (debt): $-1.45B; shares 1,038M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
- Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

## Result (per share, vs close $99.61)
| Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|
| $79.78 | **$119.44** | $157.35 |

Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 5.8, 6.9, 8.3, 9.4, 10.2. Terminal value is 76% of EV; implied terminal multiple 14.7x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).

## Sensitivity (base case, $/share)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.49% | $130.97 | $140.59 | $151.97 |
| 9.49% | $112.49 | $119.44 | $127.47 |
| 10.49% | $98.39 | $103.61 | $109.53 |

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/NOW.md