GOOG Alphabet Fair Normal confidence

Fair-value build for 2026-11-10. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.

DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV

$156.39$377.64

1 · Price

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5 · Margin of safety → call

-6.1% → Fair

1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps

Price used for the call

$284.92

Shares (diluted / implied)

not in files

Net cash (debt)

$114.77B

Beta (5Y)

1.23

Market cap

$3,520.00B

TTM revenue

$471.10B

TTM FCF (OCF − capex)

not in files

Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-10/GOOG.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator (no other bots used). Public data only.

Field	Value
Close (regular session)	$284.92 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST (close, not pre-market; cross-checked vs Yahoo Finance chart API)
Market cap	$3,520.00B
Enterprise value	$3,420.00B
Shares outstanding (source: S&P GMI via stockanalysis; basic count, not fully diluted)	12,290M
Cash	$265.10B
Total debt	$150.33B
Net cash (debt)	$114.77B
Beta (5Y)	1.23
TTM revenue	$471.10B
TTM EBITDA	$185.52B
TTM net income	$235.69B
TTM EPS (GAAP)	19.15
TTM operating cash flow	$179.55B
TTM capex	$-159.80B
TTM D&A	$28.54B
TTM free cash flow	$19.75B
Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026)	$499.70B
Consensus revenue FY2	$637.57B
Consensus EPS FY1 (non-GAAP)	13.09
Consensus EPS FY2 (non-GAAP)	15.44
Consensus FCF FY1	$-18.42B
Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	24.6%
EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	18.8%
Analyst avg price target	$400.37 (58 analysts)
P/E TTM	14.87
Forward P/E	20.31
P/S TTM	7.47
Forward P/S	5.87
P/FCF TTM	178.22
EV/Sales TTM	7.27
EV/EBITDA TTM	18.45
EV/FCF TTM	173.32
Earnings date	last: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 after market close

Missing / not available from public source: none

Sources (fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix)):

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/goog/statistics/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Oct 30, 2026)
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/goog/forecast/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Oct 30, 2026)
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/GOOG (close cross-check)
10-year Treasury: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, 2026-11-10: 4.98%

2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity

Bear

$168.24

Base

$254.53

Bull

$334.54

WACC (base)

10.87%

WACC inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.23 -> cost of equity 11.13%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $3,520.00B / total debt $150.33B -> WACC 10.87%
Normalized FCF = TTM operating cash flow ($179.55B) minus D&A as a maintenance-capex proxy ($28.54B) = $151.01B. Reported TTM FCF is $19.75B and FY1 consensus FCF is $-18.42B because of AI/data-center growth capex, so an unadjusted FCF DCF would give a meaningless value. LOW CONFIDENCE.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 24.6%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $114.77B; shares 12,354M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

No separate WACC build section in this file; inputs shown as written.

SBC treatment

TTM SBC: not in files. SBC was not deducted in this run (pre-default).

Revenue and FCF projections (base case)

not in files as a year-by-year table: the file lists base-case FCF as Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 151.0, 188.1, 234.3, 274.7, 301.7.

Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)

Separate section not in files. File states: Terminal value is 73% of EV.

Enterprise value → equity → per share

Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states net cash (debt), shares only. Net cash (debt) $114.77B; shares 12,354M.

Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
9.87%	$274.68	$290.10	$307.78
10.87%	$242.81	$254.53	$267.75
11.87%	$217.45	$226.61	$236.80

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/GOOG.md

Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-10/GOOG.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

Inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.23 -> cost of equity 11.13%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $3,520.00B / total debt $150.33B -> WACC 10.87%
Normalized FCF = TTM operating cash flow ($179.55B) minus D&A as a maintenance-capex proxy ($28.54B) = $151.01B. Reported TTM FCF is $19.75B and FY1 consensus FCF is $-18.42B because of AI/data-center growth capex, so an unadjusted FCF DCF would give a meaningless value. LOW CONFIDENCE.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 24.6%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $114.77B; shares 12,354M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

Result (per share, vs close $284.92)

Bear	Base	Bull
$168.24	$254.53	$334.54

Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 151.0, 188.1, 234.3, 274.7, 301.7. Terminal value is 73% of EV; implied terminal multiple 12.2x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).

Sensitivity (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
9.87%	$274.68	$290.10	$307.78
10.87%	$242.81	$254.53	$267.75
11.87%	$217.45	$226.61	$236.80

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/GOOG.md

3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights

Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.

Low (peer 25th pct)

$245.14

Mid (peer median)

$282.32

High (peer 75th pct)

$365.79

Peer groups and blend weights

Group	Weight	Low	Mid	High	Weight × mid
Peer set	not in files	$245.14	$282.32	$365.79	—

File weights: . File blended range: not in files.

Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-10/GOOG.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Forward multiples where public consensus exists (Fwd P/E, Fwd EV/Sales = Fwd P/S x EV/market cap, Fwd P/FCF = market cap / FY1 consensus FCF); EV/EBITDA is TTM because forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source (data gap). Low/mid/high = peer Q1/median/Q3. TSM excluded from Fwd P/FCF (source forecast in TWD).

Peer set: peers AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, META, NFLX, ORCL

Peer	Fwd P/E	Fwd EV/Sales	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Fwd P/FCF
AAPL	37.1x	9.6x	29.4x	34.2x
MSFT	25.7x	9.7x	19.6x	121.1x
AMZN	27.4x	3.4x	17.0x	n/a
META	19.5x	5.6x	14.4x	n/a
NFLX	17.6x	4.9x	16.9x	20.8x
ORCL	13.8x	5.1x	14.5x	n/a

Multiple	GOOG now	Peer Q1 / median / Q3 (n)	Implied $/share low / mid / high
Fwd P/E	20.3x	18.1x / 22.6x / 27.0x (6)	$253.67 / $316.76 / $378.28
Fwd EV/Sales	5.7x	4.9x / 5.4x / 8.6x (6)	$246.83 / $268.03 / $426.51
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	18.4x	15.1x / 16.9x / 18.9x (6)	$234.92 / $262.17 / $292.58
Fwd P/FCF	n/a	27.5x / 34.2x / 77.6x (3)	not usable for GOOG (metric negative or n/a)

Implied range (Peer set): $245.14 / $282.32 / $365.79 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)

Sources: stockanalysis.com statistics + forecast pages for GOOG and each peer (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix).

4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid

Blended fair value = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid
0.5 × $254.53 + 0.5 × $282.32 = $268.43 (report: $268.43)
Divergence check: |DCF base − relative mid| ÷ relative mid
|$254.53 − $282.32| ÷ $282.32 = 9.8% → within 25%: normal confidence

5Margin of safety → callFair

Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
($268.43 − $284.92) ÷ $268.43 = -6.1% (report: -6.1%)
Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = -5.8%; price vs FV = +6.1%
Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
→ Fair Normal confidence

6Flags and notes2 flag(s)

Flags

⚑ DCF uses normalized FCF (a coordinator adjustment), so confidence is lower

⚑ Last reported Oct 28, 2026; the next date is not posted

Coordinator notes

The DCF uses normalized FCF of $151.0B (operating cash flow $179.6B minus D&A $28.5B). Reported TTM FCF is $19.8B and FY2026E FCF is -$18.4B because of AI capex.
Forward P/E 20.3x. The DCF ($254.50) and comps ($282.30) are within 10% of each other, which supports Fair.
WACC 10.87% (Ke 11.13%); DCF sensitivity range $217.45–$307.78

Source files: data/2026-11-10/GOOG.md dcf/2026-11-10/GOOG.md relative/2026-11-10/GOOG.md