SPCX SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies) Rich Low confidence

Fair-value build for 2026-11-10. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.

DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV

DCF n/m

$36.94$149.10

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5 · Margin of safety → call

-90.5% → Rich

1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps

Price used for the call

$143.09

Shares (diluted / implied)

not in files

Net cash (debt)

$50.64B

Beta (5Y)

n/a

Market cap

$1,940.00B

TTM revenue

$32.04B

TTM FCF (OCF − capex)

not in files

Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-10/SPCX.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator (no other bots used). Public data only.

Field	Value
Close (regular session)	$143.09 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST (close, not pre-market; cross-checked vs Yahoo Finance chart API)
Market cap	$1,940.00B
Enterprise value	$1,890.00B
Shares outstanding (source: S&P GMI via stockanalysis; basic count, not fully diluted)	13,580M
Cash	$89.86B
Total debt	$39.22B
Net cash (debt)	$50.64B
Beta (5Y)	n/a
TTM revenue	$32.04B
TTM EBITDA	$11.74B
TTM net income	$-3.43B
TTM EPS (GAAP)	-0.55
TTM operating cash flow	$15.76B
TTM capex	$-55.05B
TTM D&A	$11.16B
TTM free cash flow	$-39.29B
Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026)	$48.90B
Consensus revenue FY2	$180.67B
Consensus EPS FY1 (non-GAAP)	0.01
Consensus EPS FY2 (non-GAAP)	2.66
Consensus FCF FY1	$-56.57B
Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	161.8%
EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	n/a
Analyst avg price target	$255.06 (40 analysts)
P/E TTM	n/a
Forward P/E	47.36
P/S TTM	59.85
Forward P/S	13.02
P/FCF TTM	n/a
EV/Sales TTM	58.27
EV/EBITDA TTM	159.10
EV/FCF TTM	n/a
Earnings date	last: Tuesday, October 20, 2026 after market close

Missing / not available from public source: Beta (5Y), EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR), P/E TTM, P/FCF TTM, EV/FCF TTM

Sources (fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix)):

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spcx/statistics/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 10, 2026, forecast updated Nov 10, 2026)
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/spcx/forecast/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 10, 2026, forecast updated Nov 10, 2026)
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/SPCX (close cross-check)
10-year Treasury: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, 2026-11-10: 4.98%

2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity

DCF not meaningful for SPCX on 2026-11-10, so it is excluded and fair value is relative-only.

Mechanical DCF output, shown for transparency (excluded from fair value)

WACC inputs

WACC build: not in files.

SBC treatment

TTM SBC: not in files. SBC was not deducted in this run (pre-default).

Revenue and FCF projections (base case)

not in files as a year-by-year table.

Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)

not in files

Enterprise value → equity → per share

Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states none of EV / net cash / shares only.

Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)

not in files

Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-10/SPCX.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

DCF NOT RUN – SPCX could not be fully valued on a DCF basis. Free cash flow is deeply negative (TTM -$39.3B, FY2026E -$56.6B) and only one year of FCF consensus and a 2-year revenue consensus are public; there is no observed 5-year beta (IPO in 2026). A 5-year DCF would require invented margins, so it was not run.

3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights

Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.

Low (peer 25th pct)

$42.95

Mid (peer median)

$75.12

High (peer 75th pct)

$129.07

Peer groups and blend weights

Group	Weight	Low	Mid	High	Weight × mid
Aerospace/defense	not in files	$32.19	$34.44	$43.79	—
Satellite/comms	not in files	$43.90	$127.97	$233.01	—
AI	not in files	$52.75	$62.94	$110.40	—

File weights: . File blended range: not in files.

Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-10/SPCX.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Forward multiples where public consensus exists (Fwd P/E, Fwd EV/Sales = Fwd P/S x EV/market cap, Fwd P/FCF = market cap / FY1 consensus FCF); EV/EBITDA is TTM because forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source (data gap). Low/mid/high = peer Q1/median/Q3. TSM excluded from Fwd P/FCF (source forecast in TWD).

Aerospace/defense: peers LMT, NOC, RTX, GD, RKLB

Peer	Fwd P/E	Fwd EV/Sales	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Fwd P/FCF
LMT	18.9x	1.8x	15.6x	18.0x
NOC	18.6x	2.0x	12.5x	23.5x
RTX	25.8x	2.9x	17.7x	29.5x
GD	20.1x	1.8x	15.2x	19.7x
RKLB	1067.5x	28.5x	n/a	n/a

Multiple	SPCX now	Peer Q1 / median / Q3 (n)	Implied $/share low / mid / high
Fwd P/E	47.4x	18.9x / 20.1x / 25.8x (5)	$56.95 / $60.73 / $77.95
Fwd EV/Sales	12.7x	1.8x / 2.0x / 2.9x (5)	$23.35 / $25.54 / $35.77
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	159.1x	14.5x / 15.4x / 16.1x (4)	$16.28 / $17.04 / $17.66
Fwd P/FCF	n/a	19.3x / 21.6x / 25.0x (4)	not usable for SPCX (metric negative or n/a)

Implied range (Aerospace/defense): $32.19 / $34.44 / $43.79 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)

Satellite/comms: peers ASTS, IRDM, VSAT, GSAT

Peer	Fwd P/E	Fwd EV/Sales	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Fwd P/FCF
ASTS	n/a	37.0x	n/a	n/a
IRDM	50.1x	7.2x	17.7x	16.6x
VSAT	n/a	3.2x	11.4x	44.7x
GSAT	n/a	35.3x	135.3x	130.1x

Multiple	SPCX now	Peer Q1 / median / Q3 (n)	Implied $/share low / mid / high
Fwd P/E	47.4x	too few peers (1)	not used
Fwd EV/Sales	12.7x	6.2x / 21.2x / 35.7x (4)	$71.50 / $236.93 / $396.08
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	159.1x	14.6x / 17.7x / 76.5x (3)	$16.30 / $19.02 / $69.95
Fwd P/FCF	n/a	30.6x / 44.7x / 87.4x (3)	not usable for SPCX (metric negative or n/a)

Implied range (Satellite/comms): $43.90 / $127.97 / $233.01 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)

AI: peers NVDA, PLTR, GOOG, MSFT

Peer	Fwd P/E	Fwd EV/Sales	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Fwd P/FCF
NVDA	13.9x	7.5x	20.1x	21.5x
PLTR	73.5x	33.2x	118.2x	82.7x
GOOG	20.3x	5.7x	18.4x	n/a
MSFT	25.7x	9.7x	19.6x	121.1x

Multiple	SPCX now	Peer Q1 / median / Q3 (n)	Implied $/share low / mid / high
Fwd P/E	47.4x	18.7x / 23.0x / 37.6x (4)	$56.55 / $69.49 / $113.70
Fwd EV/Sales	12.7x	7.1x / 8.6x / 15.6x (4)	$81.29 / $98.44 / $175.14
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	159.1x	19.3x / 19.9x / 44.6x (4)	$20.41 / $20.90 / $42.35
Fwd P/FCF	n/a	52.1x / 82.7x / 101.9x (3)	not usable for SPCX (metric negative or n/a)

Implied range (AI): $52.75 / $62.94 / $110.40 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)

Blended (equal weight of the three groups): $42.95 / $75.12 / $129.07

Flag: limited trading history (2026 IPO), no 5Y beta, no direct peers; ranges are very wide. Fwd P/FCF unusable (SPCX FCF negative).

Sources: stockanalysis.com statistics + forecast pages for SPCX and each peer (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix).

4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid

DCF not meaningful → blended fair value = relative mid only.
FV = $75.12 (report: $75.12)

5Margin of safety → callRich

Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
($75.12 − $143.09) ÷ $75.12 = -90.5% (report: -90.5%)
Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = -47.5%; price vs FV = +90.5%
Rule (SPCX uses a wider 30% band: short history, wide ranges): Cheap if MoS ≥ 30% · Rich if price ≥ 30% above FV · otherwise Fair
→ Rich Low confidence

6Flags and notes4 flag(s)

Flags

⚑ Could not be fully valued: DCF not run. FCF is negative (TTM -$39.3B, FY2026E -$56.6B), there is no 5-year beta, and the public consensus is too short

⚑ Limited trading history (2026 listing); share count up 117% YoY

⚑ Satellite/comms group has too few peers on forward P/E and P/FCF; each group's range is shown

⚑ Last reported Oct 20, 2026

Coordinator notes

Valued on comps only (no DCF). Forward P/E 47.4x, TTM EV/Sales 58x, TTM EV/EBITDA 159x.
The three peer groups disagree widely: aerospace/defense is lowest, satellite/comms highest and AI in between. The blend is an equal-weight average of the three, and the call uses a ±30% band.
Consensus revenue is $48.9B for FY2026 and $180.7B for FY2027 (+269%, 36–40 analysts). That jump is unusual and should be checked against company guidance.
Aerospace/defense peers: $32.19 / $34.44 / $43.79
Satellite/comms peers: $43.90 / $127.97 / $233.01
AI peers: $52.75 / $62.94 / $110.40

Source files: data/2026-11-10/SPCX.md dcf/2026-11-10/SPCX.md relative/2026-11-10/SPCX.md