AMZN Amazon Rich Low confidence

WACC inputs

• Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.50 -> cost of equity 12.48%
• Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $2,930.00B / total debt $304.84B -> WACC 11.75%
• Normalized FCF = TTM operating cash flow ($168.30B) minus D&A as a maintenance-capex proxy ($79.35B) = $88.95B. Reported TTM FCF is $-46.89B and FY1 consensus FCF is $-38.90B because of AI/data-center growth capex, so an unadjusted FCF DCF would give a meaningless value. LOW CONFIDENCE.
• Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 15.9%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
• Net cash (debt): $-190.62B; shares 10,817M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
• Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

No separate WACC build section in this file; inputs shown as written.

SBC treatment

TTM SBC: not in files. SBC was not deducted in this run (pre-default).

Revenue and FCF projections (base case)

not in files as a year-by-year table: the file lists base-case FCF as Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 89.0, 103.1, 119.6, 133.3, 142.6.

Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)

Separate section not in files. File states: Terminal value is 69% of EV.

Enterprise value → equity → per share

Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states net cash (debt), shares only. Net cash (debt) $-190.62B; shares 10,817M.

Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/AMZN.md

Peer groups and blend weights

File weights: . File blended range: not in files.

1. Blended fair value = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid
   0.5 × $104.57 + 0.5 × $314.86 = $209.72 (report: $209.72)
2. Divergence check: |DCF base − relative mid| ÷ relative mid
   |$104.57 − $314.86| ÷ $314.86 = 66.8% → above 25%: blended value is indicative and above 50%: low confidence

1. Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
   ($209.72 − $270.87) ÷ $209.72 = -29.2% (report: -29.2%)
2. Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = -22.6%; price vs FV = +29.2%
3. Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
   → Rich Low confidence

Flags

Coordinator notes

• The DCF uses normalized FCF of $89.0B (operating cash flow $168.3B minus D&A $79.4B). Reported TTM FCF is -$46.9B and FY2026E is -$38.9B because of capex.
• Comps ($314.90 median, forward P/E 27.4x) sit above the close. The normalized DCF ($104.60) is far below it, so the Rich call rests mostly on the DCF.
• WACC 11.75% (Ke 12.48%); DCF sensitivity range $88.02–$127.50