← 2026-11-10 overview · ‹ NVDA · SPCX ›
AMD Advanced Micro Devices Rich Low confidence
Fair-value build for 2026-11-10. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.
1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps
Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-10/AMD.md
Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator (no other bots used). Public data only.
| Field | Value |
|---|---|
| Close (regular session) | $515.21 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST (close, not pre-market; cross-checked vs Yahoo Finance chart API) |
| Market cap | $844.99B |
| Enterprise value | $838.42B |
| Shares outstanding (source: S&P GMI via stockanalysis; basic count, not fully diluted) | 1,640M |
| Cash | $15.78B |
| Total debt | $9.21B |
| Net cash (debt) | $6.57B |
| Beta (5Y) | 2.54 |
| TTM revenue | $45.44B |
| TTM EBITDA | $11.14B |
| TTM net income | $7.62B |
| TTM EPS (GAAP) | 4.61 |
| TTM operating cash flow | $9.12B |
| TTM capex | $-2.07B |
| TTM D&A | $3.05B |
| TTM free cash flow | $7.06B |
| Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026) | $52.24B |
| Consensus revenue FY2 | $95.73B |
| Consensus EPS FY1 (non-GAAP) | 8.09 |
| Consensus EPS FY2 (non-GAAP) | 17.65 |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $6.85B |
| Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR) | 57.4% |
| EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR) | 83.0% |
| Analyst avg price target | $657.49 (53 analysts) |
| P/E TTM | 111.67 |
| Forward P/E | 34.23 |
| P/S TTM | 18.60 |
| Forward P/S | 10.04 |
| P/FCF TTM | 119.75 |
| EV/Sales TTM | 18.45 |
| EV/EBITDA TTM | 75.24 |
| EV/FCF TTM | 118.82 |
| Earnings date | last: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 after market close |
Missing / not available from public source: none
Sources (fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix)):
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/statistics/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Nov 9, 2026)
- https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/forecast/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Nov 9, 2026)
- https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/AMD (close cross-check)
- 10-year Treasury: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, 2026-11-10: 4.98%
2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity
WACC inputs
- Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 2.54 -> cost of equity 17.68%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $844.99B / total debt $9.21B -> WACC 17.54%
- Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $6.85B (FY ending Dec 31, 2026); TTM FCF $7.06B.
- Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 57.4%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
- Net cash (debt): $6.57B; shares 1,640M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
- Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC
No separate WACC build section in this file; inputs shown as written.
SBC treatment
TTM SBC: not in files. SBC was not deducted in this run (pre-default).
Revenue and FCF projections (base case)
not in files as a year-by-year table: the file lists base-case FCF as Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 6.8, 10.8, 17.0, 23.6, 28.5.
Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)
Separate section not in files. File states: Terminal value is 64% of EV.
Enterprise value → equity → per share
Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states net cash (debt), shares only. Net cash (debt) $6.57B; shares 1,640M.
Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.54% | $91.31 | $93.89 | $96.65 |
| 17.54% | $84.59 | $86.78 | $89.12 |
| 18.54% | $78.71 | $80.59 | $82.59 |
Sources: see data/2026-11-10/AMD.md
Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-10/AMD.md
Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.
Inputs
- Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 2.54 -> cost of equity 17.68%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $844.99B / total debt $9.21B -> WACC 17.54%
- Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $6.85B (FY ending Dec 31, 2026); TTM FCF $7.06B.
- Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 57.4%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
- Net cash (debt): $6.57B; shares 1,640M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
- Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC
Result (per share, vs close $515.21)
| Bear | Base | Bull |
|---|---|---|
| $46.33 | $86.78 | $124.02 |
Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 6.8, 10.8, 17.0, 23.6, 28.5. Terminal value is 64% of EV; implied terminal multiple 6.8x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).
Sensitivity (base case, $/share)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.54% | $91.31 | $93.89 | $96.65 |
| 17.54% | $84.59 | $86.78 | $89.12 |
| 18.54% | $78.71 | $80.59 | $82.59 |
Sources: see data/2026-11-10/AMD.md
3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights
Peer groups and blend weights
| Group | Weight | Low | Mid | High | Weight × mid |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer set | not in files | $180.09 | $238.43 | $359.00 | — |
File weights: . File blended range: not in files.
Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-10/AMD.md
Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Forward multiples where public consensus exists (Fwd P/E, Fwd EV/Sales = Fwd P/S x EV/market cap, Fwd P/FCF = market cap / FY1 consensus FCF); EV/EBITDA is TTM because forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source (data gap). Low/mid/high = peer Q1/median/Q3. TSM excluded from Fwd P/FCF (source forecast in TWD).
Peer set: peers NVDA, AVGO, QCOM, INTC, MRVL, TSM, ARM, MU, TXN
| Peer | Fwd P/E | Fwd EV/Sales | EV/EBITDA (TTM) | Fwd P/FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 13.9x | 7.5x | 20.1x | 21.5x |
| AVGO | 19.1x | 10.3x | 31.0x | 32.1x |
| QCOM | 18.1x | 4.3x | 18.3x | 22.3x |
| INTC | 41.8x | 4.7x | 15.9x | 3200.3x |
| MRVL | 27.4x | 8.7x | 48.0x | 49.3x |
| TSM | 19.0x | 7.7x | 15.0x | n/a |
| ARM | 70.5x | 27.1x | 169.4x | 115.6x |
| MU | 4.1x | 2.7x | 6.9x | 5.7x |
| TXN | 26.3x | 10.9x | 26.1x | 29.6x |
| Multiple | AMD now | Peer Q1 / median / Q3 (n) | Implied $/share low / mid / high |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fwd P/E | 34.2x | 18.1x / 19.1x / 27.4x (9) | $272.43 / $287.18 / $411.96 |
| Fwd EV/Sales | 10.0x | 4.7x / 7.7x / 10.3x (9) | $243.45 / $396.81 / $534.36 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 75.2x | 15.9x / 20.1x / 31.0x (9) | $112.21 / $140.87 / $214.57 |
| Fwd P/FCF | 123.4x | 22.1x / 30.8x / 65.9x (8) | $92.26 / $128.83 / $275.09 |
Implied range (Peer set): $180.09 / $238.43 / $359.00 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)
Sources: stockanalysis.com statistics + forecast pages for AMD and each peer (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix).
4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid
- Blended fair value = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid
0.5 × $86.78 + 0.5 × $238.43 = $162.61 (report: $162.60) - Divergence check: |DCF base − relative mid| ÷ relative mid
|$86.78 − $238.43| ÷ $238.43 = 63.6% → above 25%: blended value is indicative and above 50%: low confidence
5Margin of safety → callRich
- Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
($162.60 − $515.21) ÷ $162.60 = -216.9% (report: -216.9%) - Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = -68.4%; price vs FV = +216.9%
- Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
→ Rich Low confidence
6Flags and notes3 flag(s)
Flags
Coordinator notes
- FY2026 consensus FCF is only $6.85B against an $845B market cap (forward P/FCF 123x), while consensus revenue goes from $52.2B to $95.7B (+83%) next year.
- Because the DCF holds the FCF margin constant at today's low level, it likely understates value if margins expand. Comps ($238.40) are also well below the $515.21 close (forward P/E 34.2x, EV/EBITDA 75x).
- WACC 17.54% (Ke 17.68%); DCF sensitivity range $78.71–$96.65
Source files: data/2026-11-10/AMD.md dcf/2026-11-10/AMD.md relative/2026-11-10/AMD.md