CRM Salesforce Cheap Normal confidence

Fair-value build for 2026-11-10. Every number below comes from the team's files for this day; steps marked "computed here" are simple arithmetic on those numbers.

DCF bear–bull (tick = base)Relative low–high (tick = mid)Price◆ Blended FV

$177.33$363.98

1 · Price

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5 · Margin of safety → call

+21.6% → Cheap

1Inputs: price, shares, balance sheet, consensussources & timestamps

Price used for the call

$213.48

Shares (diluted / implied)

not in files

Net cash (debt)

$-30.97B

Beta (5Y)

1.23

Market cap

$175.69B

TTM revenue

$43.94B

TTM FCF (OCF − capex)

not in files

Full input file (Financial Data Collector) · data/2026-11-10/CRM.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator (no other bots used). Public data only.

Field	Value
Close (regular session)	$213.48 at Nov 10, 2026, 4:00 PM EST (close, not pre-market; cross-checked vs Yahoo Finance chart API)
Market cap	$175.69B
Enterprise value	$206.67B
Shares outstanding (source: S&P GMI via stockanalysis; basic count, not fully diluted)	823M
Cash	$11.40B
Total debt	$42.38B
Net cash (debt)	$-30.97B
Beta (5Y)	1.23
TTM revenue	$43.94B
TTM EBITDA	$12.90B
TTM net income	$9.66B
TTM EPS (GAAP)	10.79
TTM operating cash flow	$15.75B
TTM capex	$-0.60B
TTM D&A	$3.44B
TTM free cash flow	$15.15B
Consensus revenue FY1 (FY ending Jan 31, 2027)	$46.30B
Consensus revenue FY2	$50.78B
Consensus EPS FY1 (non-GAAP)	16.75
Consensus EPS FY2 (non-GAAP)	16.02
Consensus FCF FY1	$15.00B
Revenue growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	10.3%
EPS growth forecast (3Y CAGR)	13.8%
Analyst avg price target	$287.08 (56 analysts)
P/E TTM	19.78
Forward P/E	14.55
P/S TTM	4.00
Forward P/S	3.62
P/FCF TTM	11.59
EV/Sales TTM	4.70
EV/EBITDA TTM	16.02
EV/FCF TTM	13.64
Earnings date	next confirmed: Wednesday, December 2, 2026 after market close

Missing / not available from public source: none

Sources (fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix)):

https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crm/statistics/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Nov 10, 2026)
https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crm/forecast/ (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; stats updated Nov 11, 2026, forecast updated Nov 10, 2026)
https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/CRM (close cross-check)
10-year Treasury: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, 2026-11-10: 4.98%

2DCF buildprojections · WACC · terminal value · bridge · sensitivity

Bear

$187.33

Base

$261.52

Bull

$333.75

WACC (base)

9.89%

WACC inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.23 -> cost of equity 11.13%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $175.69B / total debt $42.38B -> WACC 9.89%
Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $15.00B (FY ending Jan 31, 2027); TTM FCF $15.15B.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 10.3%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $-30.97B; shares 823M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

No separate WACC build section in this file; inputs shown as written.

SBC treatment

TTM SBC: not in files. SBC was not deducted in this run (pre-default).

Revenue and FCF projections (base case)

not in files as a year-by-year table: the file lists base-case FCF as Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 15.0, 16.5, 18.2, 19.6, 20.6.

Terminal value (Gordon growth, cross-checked with an exit multiple)

Separate section not in files. File states: Terminal value is 73% of EV.

Enterprise value → equity → per share

Full bridge not in files: the DCF file states net cash (debt), shares only. Net cash (debt) $-30.97B; shares 823M.

Sensitivity grid (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
8.89%	$288.01	$309.55	$334.74
9.89%	$245.70	$261.52	$279.63
10.89%	$212.93	$224.97	$238.53

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/CRM.md

Full DCF file (DCF Analyst) · dcf/2026-11-10/CRM.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Method: 5-year explicit FCF forecast + Gordon growth terminal value, cross-checked with the implied terminal FCF multiple.

Inputs

Risk-free (10Y UST, 2026-11-10): 4.98%; ERP 5.0%; beta (5Y observed) 1.23 -> cost of equity 11.13%
Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (coordinator assumption), 21% tax -> 4.72% after tax; weights at market cap $175.69B / total debt $42.38B -> WACC 9.89%
Year-1 FCF = consensus FY1 FCF $15.00B (FY ending Jan 31, 2027); TTM FCF $15.15B.
Growth path (FCF grows with revenue, constant FCF margin): years 2-3 at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR 10.3%, then fades linearly to terminal g by year 5
Net cash (debt): $-30.97B; shares 823M (market cap / price; basic, not fully diluted)
Scenarios: bear = 90% of year-1 FCF, half the growth rate, g 2.0%; base = as above, g 2.5%; bull = 110% of year-1 FCF, 1.25x growth, g 3.0%; all at base WACC

Result (per share, vs close $213.48)

Bear	Base	Bull
$187.33	$261.52	$333.75

Base-case year 1-5 FCF ($B): 15.0, 16.5, 18.2, 19.6, 20.6. Terminal value is 73% of EV; implied terminal multiple 13.9x year-5 FCF (exit-multiple cross-check).

Sensitivity (base case, $/share)

WACC \ g	2.0%	2.5%	3.0%
8.89%	$288.01	$309.55	$334.74
9.89%	$245.70	$261.52	$279.63
10.89%	$212.93	$224.97	$238.53

Sources: see data/2026-11-10/CRM.md

3Relative valuation build (comps)peers · multiples · median/IQR · weights

Comps basis: Adjusted basis. Adjusted basis: comps use consensus (mostly non-GAAP, SBC-excluded) EPS and pre-SBC FCF. This run predates the GAAP / SBC-consistent default.

Low (peer 25th pct)

$205.83

Mid (peer median)

$282.78

High (peer 75th pct)

$353.98

Peer groups and blend weights

Group	Weight	Low	Mid	High	Weight × mid
Peer set	not in files	$205.83	$282.78	$353.98	—

File weights: . File blended range: not in files.

Full relative-valuation file (Relative Valuation Analyst) · relative/2026-11-10/CRM.md

Sample run by the Fair Value Coordinator. Forward multiples where public consensus exists (Fwd P/E, Fwd EV/Sales = Fwd P/S x EV/market cap, Fwd P/FCF = market cap / FY1 consensus FCF); EV/EBITDA is TTM because forward EBITDA consensus is not on the free source (data gap). Low/mid/high = peer Q1/median/Q3. TSM excluded from Fwd P/FCF (source forecast in TWD).

Peer set: peers NOW, ADBE, ORCL, SAP, INTU, WDAY, ADSK, MSFT

Peer	Fwd P/E	Fwd EV/Sales	EV/EBITDA (TTM)	Fwd P/FCF
NOW	21.9x	5.7x	32.4x	17.9x
ADBE	8.8x	3.3x	9.4x	8.8x
ORCL	13.8x	5.1x	14.5x	n/a
SAP	26.2x	5.5x	19.4x	26.8x
INTU	14.3x	3.9x	13.5x	10.4x
WDAY	15.7x	4.1x	28.9x	14.5x
ADSK	20.0x	6.1x	23.5x	19.8x
MSFT	25.7x	9.7x	19.6x	121.1x

Multiple	CRM now	Peer Q1 / median / Q3 (n)	Implied $/share low / mid / high
Fwd P/E	14.6x	14.2x / 17.8x / 22.9x (8)	$208.05 / $261.60 / $335.66
Fwd EV/Sales	4.3x	4.1x / 5.3x / 5.8x (8)	$201.95 / $274.66 / $304.28
EV/EBITDA (TTM)	16.0x	14.3x / 19.5x / 24.9x (8)	$185.80 / $268.25 / $352.03
Fwd P/FCF	11.7x	12.5x / 17.9x / 23.3x (7)	$227.51 / $326.59 / $423.95

Implied range (Peer set): $205.83 / $282.78 / $353.98 (equal-weight average of usable multiples)

Sources: stockanalysis.com statistics + forecast pages for CRM and each peer (S&P Global Market Intelligence data), fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix).

4Blending50/50 DCF base + relative mid

Blended fair value = 50% DCF base + 50% relative mid
0.5 × $261.52 + 0.5 × $282.78 = $272.15 (report: $272.15)
Divergence check: |DCF base − relative mid| ÷ relative mid
|$261.52 − $282.78| ÷ $282.78 = 7.5% → within 25%: normal confidence

5Margin of safety → callCheap

Margin of safety = (FV − price) ÷ FV
($272.15 − $213.48) ÷ $272.15 = +21.6% (report: +21.6%)
Upside / downside = FV ÷ price − 1 = +27.5%; price vs FV = -21.6%
Rule: Cheap if MoS ≥ 20% · Rich if price ≥ 15% above FV · otherwise Fair
→ Cheap Normal confidence

6Flags and notes2 flag(s)

Flags

⚑ Earnings Wed Dec 2, 2026 after the close (in 22 days)

⚑ Net debt of $31.0B after $30.2B of TTM net borrowing; share count down 7.4% YoY (buybacks)

Coordinator notes

Forward P/E 14.6x and TTM P/FCF 11.6x. Year-1 FCF is the FY Jan-2027 consensus of $15.0B, and the consensus 3-year revenue CAGR is 10.3%.
The DCF base ($261.50) and comps median ($282.80) are within 8% of each other. Both sit above the close, which drives the Cheap call.
WACC 9.89% (Ke 11.13%); DCF sensitivity range $212.93–$334.74

Source files: data/2026-11-10/CRM.md dcf/2026-11-10/CRM.md relative/2026-11-10/CRM.md