SAMPLE RUN
Pre-open fair value report – 2026-11-10
Sample run produced by the Fair Value Coordinator on the evening of 2026-11-10 (Phoenix time). All work (data, DCF, comps) was done by the coordinator; the teammate bots were not used for this sample. Prices are the Nov 10, 2026 regular-session closes (4:00 PM ET), not pre-market quotes. The regular weekday pre-open run is unchanged.
Summary
| Ticker | Close 11/10 | DCF bear / base / bull | Comps low / mid / high | Blended FV | Up/down | Margin of safety | Call |
|---|
CRM
Salesforce | $213.48 | $187.33 / $261.52 / $333.75 | $205.83 / $282.78 / $353.98 | $272.15 | +27.5% | +21.6% | Cheap |
NOW
ServiceNow | $99.61 | $79.78 / $119.44 / $157.35 | $59.94 / $71.19 / $97.19 | $95.31* | -4.3% | -4.5% | Fair |
ADBE
Adobe | $236.70 | $271.50 / $354.27 / $432.94 | $360.16 / $458.91 / $571.69 | $406.59 | +71.8% | +41.8% | Cheap |
AAPL
Apple | $348.51 | $118.99 / $152.74 / $185.78 | $172.41 / $201.57 / $346.88 | $177.15 | -49.2% | -96.7% | Rich |
NVDA
NVIDIA | $168.89 | $93.07 / $188.54 / $278.03 | $171.91 / $263.45 / $492.90 | $226.00* | +33.8% | +25.3% | Cheap |
AMD
Advanced Micro Devices | $515.21 | $46.33 / $86.78 / $124.02 | $180.09 / $238.43 / $359.00 | $162.60* | -68.4% | -216.9% | Rich low conf. |
SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies | $143.09 | not run | $42.95 / $75.12 / $129.07 | $75.12* | -47.5% | -90.5% | Rich low conf. |
GOOG
Alphabet | $284.92 | $168.24 / $254.53 / $334.54 | $245.14 / $282.32 / $365.79 | $268.43 | -5.8% | -6.1% | Fair |
AMZN
Amazon.com | $270.87 | $69.99 / $104.57 / $136.40 | $281.41 / $314.86 / $423.08 | $209.72* | -22.6% | -29.2% | Rich low conf. |
* Indicative only: DCF and comps disagree by more than 25%, or there is no DCF (SPCX is comps only). Ranges are $ per share.
Per-ticker notes
CRM Salesforce Cheap · FV $272.15 vs $213.48
- Forward P/E 14.6x and TTM P/FCF 11.6x. Year-1 FCF is the FY Jan-2027 consensus of $15.0B, and the consensus 3-year revenue CAGR is 10.3%.
- The DCF base ($261.50) and comps median ($282.80) are within 8% of each other. Both sit above the close, which drives the Cheap call.
- WACC 9.89% (cost of equity 11.13%); DCF sensitivity range $212.93–$334.74
- ⚑ Earnings Wed Dec 2, 2026 after the close (in 22 days)
- ⚑ Net debt of $31.0B after $30.2B of TTM net borrowing; share count down 7.4% YoY (buybacks)
NOW ServiceNow Fair · FV $95.31 vs $99.61
- Forward P/E 21.9x and TTM EV/EBITDA 32.4x, both above the software peer medians, so the comps median ($71.20) is below the close.
- The DCF base ($119.40) is driven by the consensus 3-year revenue CAGR of 19.7% and FY1 FCF of $5.8B.
- WACC 9.49% (cost of equity 9.88%); DCF sensitivity range $98.39–$151.97
- ⚑ DCF vs comps disagree by 68% (>25%): blended value is indicative only, both shown
- ⚑ Last reported Oct 28, 2026; the next date is not yet posted on the source
ADBE Adobe Cheap · FV $406.59 vs $236.70
- Forward P/E 8.8x and TTM P/FCF 8.7x, well below the software peers. Year-1 FCF is the FY Nov-2026 consensus of $10.4B, and the 3-year revenue CAGR is 9.6%.
- Both the DCF ($354.30) and comps ($458.90) sit far above the $236.70 close. The market is pricing much lower growth or durability than consensus, so check for a thesis risk before relying on Cheap.
- WACC 11.39% (cost of equity 11.88%); DCF sensitivity range $305.13–$423.23
- ⚑ Earnings Dec 9, 2026 after the close (estimated, not yet confirmed; in 29 days)
AAPL Apple Rich · FV $177.15 vs $348.51
- Forward P/E 37.1x versus a mega-cap peer median near 20x. Year-1 FCF is the FY Sep-2027 consensus of $148.1B, and the 3-year revenue CAGR is 8.1%.
- The DCF ($152.70) and comps ($201.60) are both well below the $348.51 close. The modest growth consensus does not support today's multiple under these assumptions.
- WACC 10.33% (cost of equity 10.43%); DCF sensitivity range $129.76–$186.55
- ⚑ Last reported Nov 2, 2026; the next date is not posted
- ⚑ DCF and comps differ by 24%, just under the 25% flag
- ⚑ The comps high ($346.88) is lifted by a wide forward P/FCF spread across only 3 usable peers
NVDA NVIDIA Cheap · FV $226.00 vs $168.89
- Forward P/E 13.9x versus a semiconductor peer median of 26.3x, so comps are high ($263.40 median).
- The DCF base ($188.50) is held down by a 2.25 beta, which gives a 16.1% WACC, even with FY Jan-2027 FCF of $189.9B and a 61% 3-year revenue CAGR. A lower beta would raise the DCF a lot.
- WACC 16.12% (cost of equity 16.23%); DCF sensitivity range $168.50–$213.60
- ⚑ DCF vs comps disagree by 28% (>25%): blended value is indicative only, both shown
- ⚑ EARNINGS SOON: Nov 17, 2026 (in 7 days); expect estimates and the price to move
- ⚑ High beta makes the DCF very sensitive to the discount rate
AMD Advanced Micro Devices Rich · FV $162.60 vs $515.21
- FY2026 consensus FCF is only $6.85B against an $845B market cap (forward P/FCF 123x), while consensus revenue goes from $52.2B to $95.7B (+83%) next year.
- Because the DCF holds the FCF margin constant at today's low level, it likely understates value if margins expand. Comps ($238.40) are also well below the $515.21 close (forward P/E 34.2x, EV/EBITDA 75x).
- WACC 17.54% (cost of equity 17.68%); DCF sensitivity range $78.71–$96.65
- ⚑ DCF vs comps disagree by 64% (>25%): blended value is indicative only, both shown
- ⚑ Low confidence: the starting FCF margin is depressed relative to the growth consensus
- ⚑ Last reported Nov 3, 2026; the next date is not posted
SPCX Space Exploration Technologies Rich · FV $75.12 vs $143.09
- Valued on comps only (no DCF). Forward P/E 47.4x, TTM EV/Sales 58x, TTM EV/EBITDA 159x.
- The three peer groups disagree widely: aerospace/defense is lowest, satellite/comms highest and AI in between. The blend is an equal-weight average of the three, and the call uses a ±30% band.
- Consensus revenue is $48.9B for FY2026 and $180.7B for FY2027 (+269%, 36–40 analysts). That jump is unusual and should be checked against company guidance.
- Aerospace/defense peers: $32.19 / $34.44 / $43.79
- Satellite/comms peers: $43.90 / $127.97 / $233.01
- AI peers: $52.75 / $62.94 / $110.40
- ⚑ Could not be fully valued: DCF not run. FCF is negative (TTM -$39.3B, FY2026E -$56.6B), there is no 5-year beta, and the public consensus is too short
- ⚑ Limited trading history (2026 listing); share count up 117% YoY
- ⚑ Satellite/comms group has too few peers on forward P/E and P/FCF; each group's range is shown
- ⚑ Last reported Oct 20, 2026
GOOG Alphabet Fair · FV $268.43 vs $284.92
- The DCF uses normalized FCF of $151.0B (operating cash flow $179.6B minus D&A $28.5B). Reported TTM FCF is $19.8B and FY2026E FCF is -$18.4B because of AI capex.
- Forward P/E 20.3x. The DCF ($254.50) and comps ($282.30) are within 10% of each other, which supports Fair.
- WACC 10.87% (cost of equity 11.13%); DCF sensitivity range $217.45–$307.78
- ⚑ DCF uses normalized FCF (a coordinator adjustment), so confidence is lower
- ⚑ Last reported Oct 28, 2026; the next date is not posted
AMZN Amazon.com Rich · FV $209.72 vs $270.87
- The DCF uses normalized FCF of $89.0B (operating cash flow $168.3B minus D&A $79.4B). Reported TTM FCF is -$46.9B and FY2026E is -$38.9B because of capex.
- Comps ($314.90 median, forward P/E 27.4x) sit above the close. The normalized DCF ($104.60) is far below it, so the Rich call rests mostly on the DCF.
- WACC 11.75% (cost of equity 12.48%); DCF sensitivity range $88.02–$127.50
- ⚑ DCF vs comps disagree by 67% (>25%): blended value is indicative only, both shown
- ⚑ Low confidence: the DCF rests on normalized FCF, and reported FCF is negative
- ⚑ Last reported Oct 29, 2026; the next date is not posted
Key assumptions
- 10-year Treasury 4.98% (US Treasury par yield curve, 2026-11-10); equity risk premium 5.0%; observed 5Y beta; cost of debt 10Y + 1.0% spread, 21% tax.
- DCF: 5-year FCF forecast (year 1 = FY1 consensus FCF; years 2-3 grow at consensus 3Y revenue CAGR, fading to terminal g by year 5) plus Gordon terminal value. Bear/base/bull use g of 2.0/2.5/3.0%, half/1.0x/1.25x growth and 90/100/110% of year-1 FCF. The sensitivity grid moves WACC by ±1% and g by ±0.5%.
- Comps: peer Q1 / median / Q3 of forward P/E, forward EV/Sales, EV/EBITDA (TTM; forward EBITDA consensus not on free sources) and forward P/FCF, then an equal-weight average of the usable multiples.
- Blended FV = 50% DCF base + 50% comps median. If they differ by more than 25% (|DCF − comps| / comps), the report flags it and shows both. Calls: Cheap if price ≤ 20% below FV, Rich if ≥ 15% above, else Fair. SPCX uses a ±30% band.
Sources
- stockanalysis.com /statistics and /forecast pages for every ticker and peer (S&P Global Market Intelligence data; pages last updated Nov 10–11, 2026); fetched 2026-11-10 ~8:45 PM MST (Phoenix time)
- Yahoo Finance chart API (query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart): cross-check of all nine Nov 10 closes (all matched)
- U.S. Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, 11/10/2026: 10Y = 4.98% (home.treasury.gov)
Not investment advice. This is an automated, model-driven sample built only from public data. The numbers are estimates that depend on the assumptions above and can be wrong.