# CRM – Salesforce – DCF (2026-11-11)

DCF Analyst model, rerun by Fair Value Coordinator on today's data. Input file: `data/2026-11-11/CRM.md`. Generated 2026-11-11 07:16 MST (Phoenix).

**Price used:** $213.48 (regular-session close Nov 10, 2026). Shares 823M (diluted/implied, Yahoo impliedSharesOutstanding per Data Collector 2026-11-11).

| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $116.56 | -45% | 4.8% fading to 3.0% | 22.2% → 22.2% | 10.9% | 2.5% |
| Base | **$190.37** | -11% | 8.7% fading to 3.7% | 26.1% → 26.1% | 9.9% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $233.28 | +9% | 9.7% fading to 3.9% | 26.1% → 26.1% | 8.9% | 2.5% |

## WACC build
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 1.23 (5Y observed (Data Collector)); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 11.1%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 80.6% / debt 19.4% (mkt cap $175.7B, debt $42.4B)
- WACC 9.9% → **9.9%**

## Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $43.9B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $15.8B / $-0.6B / $15.2B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $3.7B (8.3% of rev; 24.2% of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Jul 31 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $11.5B = 26.1% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Jan 31, 2027): $46.3B; FY2 $50.8B (FY2/FY1 9.7%); 3Y CAGR 10.3% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $15.0B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 9.7% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 8.7% (90%) / 4.8% (50%) / 9.7% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $-31.0B | Data Collector |
| Margin | Base/bull flat at TTM after-SBC margin; bear 85% of it | team default |

## Base-case 5-year FCF ($B)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.7% | 47.8 | 26.1% | 12.5 | 11.4 |
| 2 | 7.5% | 51.3 | 26.1% | 13.4 | 11.1 |
| 3 | 6.2% | 54.5 | 26.1% | 14.3 | 10.7 |
| 4 | 5.0% | 57.2 | 26.1% | 15.0 | 10.3 |
| 5 | 3.7% | 59.4 | 26.1% | 15.5 | 9.7 |

## Terminal value check (base)
- Gordon TV $215.4B, PV $134.5B; EV $187.6B; TV share of EV 71.7%
- Implied exit multiple 13.9x year-5 FCF vs current EV/FCF TTM 13.6x (pre-SBC)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $213.48: **28.8%** vs TTM 26.1%

## Sensitivity – base case $/share (WACC vs terminal g)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8.9% | $211.29 | $226.55 | $244.41 |
| 9.4% | $194.19 | $207.14 | $222.13 |
| 9.9% | $179.26 | $190.37 | $203.09 |
| 10.4% | $166.12 | $175.72 | $186.63 |
| 10.9% | $154.45 | $162.83 | $172.26 |

## Sources
- - Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (`price`, `summaryDetail`, `defaultKeyStatistics`, `financialData`, `calendarEvents`, `earningsTrend`, `incomeStatementHistory`): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/CRM — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET
- Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/CRM — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crm/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crm/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 10, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crm/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=CRM — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
- TTM SBC: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/crm/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=trailing (fetched 2026-11-11 ~05:25 MST)

## Caveats
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).