# AMD – Advanced Micro Devices – DCF (2026-11-11)

DCF Analyst model, rerun by Fair Value Coordinator on today's data. Input file: `data/2026-11-11/AMD.md`. Generated 2026-11-11 07:16 MST (Phoenix).

**Price used:** $515.21 (regular-session close Nov 10, 2026). Shares 1,640M (diluted/implied, Yahoo impliedSharesOutstanding per Data Collector 2026-11-11).

| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $34.53 | -93% | 28.7% fading to 7.7% | 9.5% → 9.5% | 18.5% | 2.5% |
| Base | **$65.68** | -87% | 51.7% fading to 12.3% | 11.1% → 11.1% | 17.5% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $78.53 | -85% | 57.4% fading to 13.5% | 11.1% → 11.1% | 16.5% | 2.5% |

## WACC build
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 2.54 (5Y observed (Data Collector)); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 17.7%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 98.9% / debt 1.1% (mkt cap $845.0B, debt $9.2B)
- WACC 17.5% → **17.5%**

## Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $45.4B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $9.1B / $-2.1B / $7.1B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $2.0B (4.4% of rev; 28.3% of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Sep 26 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $5.1B = 11.1% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Dec 31, 2026): $52.2B; FY2 $95.7B (FY2/FY1 83.3%); 3Y CAGR 57.4% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $6.8B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 57.4% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 51.7% (90%) / 28.7% (50%) / 57.4% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $6.6B | Data Collector |
| Margin | Base/bull flat at TTM after-SBC margin; bear 85% of it | team default |

## Base-case 5-year FCF ($B)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 51.7% | 68.9 | 11.1% | 7.7 | 6.5 |
| 2 | 41.8% | 97.7 | 11.1% | 10.9 | 7.9 |
| 3 | 32.0% | 129.0 | 11.1% | 14.4 | 8.8 |
| 4 | 22.2% | 157.6 | 11.1% | 17.6 | 9.2 |
| 5 | 12.3% | 177.0 | 11.1% | 19.7 | 8.8 |

## Terminal value check (base)
- Gordon TV $134.4B, PV $59.9B; EV $101.1B; TV share of EV 59.2%
- Implied exit multiple 6.8x year-5 FCF vs current EV/FCF TTM 118.8x (pre-SBC)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $515.21: **92.3%** vs TTM 11.1%

## Sensitivity – base case $/share (WACC vs terminal g)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16.5% | $69.08 | $70.67 | $72.39 |
| 17.0% | $66.62 | $68.09 | $69.66 |
| 17.5% | $64.33 | $65.68 | $67.12 |
| 18.0% | $62.19 | $63.43 | $64.75 |
| 18.5% | $60.17 | $61.32 | $62.54 |

## Sources
- - Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (`price`, `summaryDetail`, `defaultKeyStatistics`, `financialData`, `calendarEvents`, `earningsTrend`, `incomeStatementHistory`): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/AMD — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET
- Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/AMD — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 9, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=AMD — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
- TTM SBC: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/amd/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=trailing (fetched 2026-11-11 ~05:25 MST)

## Caveats
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).