# ADBE – Adobe – DCF (2026-11-11)

DCF Analyst model, rerun by Fair Value Coordinator on today's data. Input file: `data/2026-11-11/ADBE.md`. Generated 2026-11-11 07:16 MST (Phoenix).

**Price used:** $236.70 (regular-session close Nov 10, 2026). Shares 389M (diluted/implied, Yahoo impliedSharesOutstanding per Data Collector 2026-11-11).

| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $200.49 | -15% | 4.6% fading to 2.9% | 27.9% → 27.9% | 12.4% | 2.5% |
| Base | **$289.72** | +22% | 8.2% fading to 3.6% | 32.8% → 32.8% | 11.4% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $335.18 | +42% | 9.1% fading to 3.8% | 32.8% → 32.8% | 10.4% | 2.5% |

## WACC build
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 1.38 (5Y observed (Data Collector)); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 11.9%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 93.1% / debt 6.9% (mkt cap $92.1B, debt $6.8B)
- WACC 11.4% → **11.4%**

## Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $26.0B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $10.8B / $-0.2B / $10.6B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $2.1B (8.0% of rev; 19.6% of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Aug 28 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $8.5B = 32.8% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Nov 30, 2026): $26.6B; FY2 $29.0B (FY2/FY1 9.1%); 3Y CAGR 9.5% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $10.4B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 9.1% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 8.2% (90%) / 4.6% (50%) / 9.1% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $-1.1B | Data Collector |
| Margin | Base/bull flat at TTM after-SBC margin; bear 85% of it | team default |

## Base-case 5-year FCF ($B)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8.2% | 28.1 | 32.8% | 9.2 | 8.3 |
| 2 | 7.1% | 30.1 | 32.8% | 9.9 | 8.0 |
| 3 | 5.9% | 31.9 | 32.8% | 10.5 | 7.6 |
| 4 | 4.8% | 33.4 | 32.8% | 11.0 | 7.1 |
| 5 | 3.6% | 34.6 | 32.8% | 11.4 | 6.6 |

## Terminal value check (base)
- Gordon TV $131.0B, PV $76.4B; EV $113.9B; TV share of EV 67.0%
- Implied exit multiple 11.5x year-5 FCF vs current EV/FCF TTM 8.8x (pre-SBC)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $236.70: **26.9%** vs TTM 32.8%

## Sensitivity – base case $/share (WACC vs terminal g)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10.4% | $312.50 | $327.35 | $344.21 |
| 10.9% | $294.47 | $307.41 | $322.00 |
| 11.4% | $278.37 | $289.72 | $302.43 |
| 11.9% | $263.90 | $273.92 | $285.08 |
| 12.4% | $250.82 | $259.72 | $269.57 |

## Sources
- - Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (`price`, `summaryDetail`, `defaultKeyStatistics`, `financialData`, `calendarEvents`, `earningsTrend`, `incomeStatementHistory`): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/ADBE — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET
- Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/ADBE — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/adbe/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/adbe/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 4, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/adbe/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=ADBE — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
- TTM SBC: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/adbe/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=trailing (fetched 2026-11-11 ~05:25 MST)

## Caveats
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).