# AAPL – Apple – DCF (2026-11-11)

DCF Analyst model, rerun by Fair Value Coordinator on today's data. Input file: `data/2026-11-11/AAPL.md`. Generated 2026-11-11 07:16 MST (Phoenix).

**Price used:** $348.51 (regular-session close Nov 10, 2026). Shares 14,532M (diluted/implied, Yahoo impliedSharesOutstanding per Data Collector 2026-11-11).

| Scenario | $/share | vs price | Start rev growth | FCF margin (after SBC) yr1→yr5 | WACC | g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | $89.28 | -74% | 4.0% fading to 2.8% | 21.7% → 21.7% | 11.3% | 2.5% |
| Base | **$127.52** | -63% | 7.2% fading to 3.4% | 25.5% → 25.5% | 10.3% | 2.5% |
| Bull | $148.98 | -57% | 8.0% fading to 3.6% | 25.5% → 25.5% | 9.3% | 2.5% |

## WACC build
- Risk-free: 10Y UST 5.0% (Nov 10, 2026 close per Data Collector; bond market closed Nov 11 for Veterans Day)
- Beta: 1.09 (5Y observed (Data Collector)); ERP 5.0% → cost of equity 10.4%
- Cost of debt: 10Y + 1.0% spread (assumption; no interest-rate data in inputs) = 6.0% pre-tax, 4.7% after 21% tax
- Weights (market): equity 98.2% / debt 1.8% (mkt cap $5,060.0B, debt $94.5B)
- WACC 10.3% → **10.3%**

## Key assumptions
| Item | Value | Basis |
|---|---|---|
| TTM revenue | $478.8B | Data Collector |
| TTM OCF / capex / FCF | $145.1B / $-9.0B / $136.1B | Data Collector |
| TTM SBC | $13.8B (2.9% of rev; 10.1% of FCF) | stockanalysis cash-flow, TTM to Sep 26 2026 |
| FCF after SBC (base yr-0) | $122.3B = 25.5% margin | OCF − capex − SBC |
| Consensus revenue | FY1 (FY ending Sep 30, 2027): $527.2B; FY2 $569.2B (FY2/FY1 8.0%); 3Y CAGR 8.1% | Data Collector |
| Consensus FCF FY1 | $148.1B | Data Collector (pre-SBC) |
| Consensus-level start growth | 8.0% = lower of 3Y CAGR and FY2/FY1 | conservative |
| Base / bear / bull start growth | 7.2% (90%) / 4.0% (50%) / 8.0% (100%) of consensus; linear fade toward g | |
| Net cash (debt) | $42.5B | Data Collector |
| Margin | Base/bull flat at TTM after-SBC margin; bear 85% of it | team default |

## Base-case 5-year FCF ($B)
| Year | Rev growth | Revenue | FCF margin | FCF | PV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7.2% | 513.2 | 25.5% | 131.0 | 118.8 |
| 2 | 6.2% | 545.2 | 25.5% | 139.2 | 114.4 |
| 3 | 5.3% | 574.1 | 25.5% | 146.6 | 109.2 |
| 4 | 4.4% | 599.2 | 25.5% | 153.0 | 103.3 |
| 5 | 3.4% | 619.8 | 25.5% | 158.3 | 96.8 |

## Terminal value check (base)
- Gordon TV $2,073.0B, PV $1,268.3B; EV $1,810.7B; TV share of EV 70.0%
- Implied exit multiple 13.1x year-5 FCF vs current EV/FCF TTM 36.9x (pre-SBC)
- FCF margin (after SBC, flat, base growth/WACC) needed to justify $348.51: **70.8%** vs TTM 25.5%

## Sensitivity – base case $/share (WACC vs terminal g)
| WACC \ g | 2.0% | 2.5% | 3.0% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9.3% | $138.35 | $145.97 | $154.80 |
| 9.8% | $129.59 | $136.12 | $143.60 |
| 10.3% | $121.88 | $127.52 | $133.93 |
| 10.8% | $115.05 | $119.96 | $125.50 |
| 11.3% | $108.95 | $113.26 | $118.08 |

## Sources
- - Yahoo Finance quoteSummary API (`price`, `summaryDetail`, `defaultKeyStatistics`, `financialData`, `calendarEvents`, `earningsTrend`, `incomeStatementHistory`): https://query2.finance.yahoo.com/v10/finance/quoteSummary/AAPL — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix) / Nov 11, 2026, 7:24 AM ET
- Yahoo Finance chart API (pre/post included) close/pre-market cross-check: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/AAPL — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com statistics (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/statistics/ — stats updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com forecast (S&P Global Market Intelligence): https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/forecast/ — forecast updated Nov 11, 2026, fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- stockanalysis.com financials & cash-flow statement pages: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/financials/ and .../financials/cash-flow-statement/ — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- Yahoo Finance news search: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v1/finance/search?q=AAPL — fetched Nov 11, 2026, 5:24 AM MST (America/Phoenix)
- 10-year Treasury (for WACC context): 4.98% on Nov 10, 2026 (latest; Nov 11 is Veterans Day and the Treasury auction/bond market is closed). Source: https://home.treasury.gov daily par yield curve, November 2026 view.
- TTM SBC: https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/aapl/financials/cash-flow-statement/?p=trailing (fetched 2026-11-11 ~05:25 MST)

## Caveats
- SBC treated as a cash cost (subtracted from FCF) – conservative; pre-SBC values would be materially higher.
- Shares are Yahoo implied/diluted (rerun by Coordinator on data/2026-11-11); cost of debt is a 10Y+100bp assumption.
- Revenue start point is TTM; consensus FY1/FY2 periods may not align with TTM. Mid-year discounting not applied (end-year, conservative).